1. #1
    stevenash
    stevenash's Avatar Moderator
    Join Date: 01-17-11
    Posts: 62,604
    Betpoints: 32290

    Arizona Diamondbacks at +150 has value this afternoon; here's three reasons why

    1) Even though Patrick Corbin is making his major league debut he's no hamburger.
    Corbin is 2-0 in Mobile in four starts (D-Backs minor league) with a 1.11 ratio and a 1.67 ERA. Strikes out almost 1 an innings (8.3 per nine)
    Overall he's 28-14 in the minors, 3.83 ERA with a 1.25 ratio, those number are solid when you consider the band boxes he pitches in AA level.
    Crobin stikes out 8.3 per nine so far in his minor league career too.

    He's a lefty, a good one, drafted second round right out HS by the Angels (I think he might have pitched a little JUCO ball) traded to the Snakes in the Haren deal.
    He's 22 years old.

    Think Andy Pettite:

    A textbook lefty, Corbin is a smart and wiry craftsman with three solid pitches and good command. He won't break any radar guns, but he should frustrate more than his fair share of MLB hitters very soon

    2) Miami is an underachieving team, that finds way to lose leads late.
    If Corbin keeps the Snakes in the game (and I think he will), I believe Buerhle needs to go seven innings plus or 'Zona's lineup will torch the Fish bullpen.

    3) Buerle can be hit, he beat the Cubs, but who doesn't beat the Cubs, got beat by a decimated Phil lineup with out 1/3 of their all stars, and got shut out by Cincy.

    Now I'm not saying this game is a lock, but if you ask me the line on the Marlins is way off here.
    -160/+150 is ridiculous.
    I'm not laying 8:5 on this crappy Fish team, and I'll be more than happy to take a shot with the Snakes at +150 on a good prospect, and a team that can rake Buerhle some today.

    Snakes +150 1* 100 to win 150 here
    Points Awarded:

    Mriceyman gave stevenash 2 SBR Point(s) for this post.


  2. #2
    EASY_MONEY72
    2001 WS OF POKER CHAMPION
    EASY_MONEY72's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-23-12
    Posts: 853
    Betpoints: 765

    i like it.

  3. #3
    ridims
    ridims's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-15-10
    Posts: 3,863


    took zona first run for +100, 1st 5 innings +140 & +155 for the game .. all for a unit each.

  4. #4
    DudleyDawson
    DudleyDawson's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-10-12
    Posts: 5,658

    Heritage is up to +164/-177 but I'm not buying it...late money comes in on the Dbacks, guaranteed.

  5. #5
    LoneStar
    I'm Kind of A Big Deal
    LoneStar's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-11-09
    Posts: 190
    Betpoints: 18

    Quote Originally Posted by stevenash View Post
    1) Even though Patrick Corbin is making his major league debut he's no hamburger.
    Corbin is 2-0 in Mobile in four starts (D-Backs minor league) with a 1.11 ratio and a 1.67 ERA. Strikes out almost 1 an innings (8.3 per nine)
    Overall he's 28-14 in the minors, 3.83 ERA with a 1.25 ratio, those number are solid when you consider the band boxes he pitches in AA level.
    Crobin stikes out 8.3 per nine so far in his minor league career too.

    He's a lefty, a good one, drafted second round right out HS by the Angels (I think he might have pitched a little JUCO ball) traded to the Snakes in the Haren deal.
    He's 22 years old.

    Think Andy Pettite:

    A textbook lefty, Corbin is a smart and wiry craftsman with three solid pitches and good command. He won't break any radar guns, but he should frustrate more than his fair share of MLB hitters very soon

    2) Miami is an underachieving team, that finds way to lose leads late.
    If Corbin keeps the Snakes in the game (and I think he will), I believe Buerhle needs to go seven innings plus or 'Zona's lineup will torch the Fish bullpen.

    3) Buerle can be hit, he beat the Cubs, but who doesn't beat the Cubs, got beat by a decimated Phil lineup with out 1/3 of their all stars, and got shut out by Cincy.

    Now I'm not saying this game is a lock, but if you ask me the line on the Marlins is way off here.
    -160/+150 is ridiculous.
    I'm not laying 8:5 on this crappy Fish team, and I'll be more than happy to take a shot with the Snakes at +150 on a good prospect, and a team that can rake Buerhle some today.

    Snakes +150 1* 100 to win 150 here
    really...? did you miss the the year before stats (2011)? This kid been playing pee-wee ball; not decent numbers to say the lease. Also striking out pee-wee kids at that ratio is not impressive in the 2 game span (try looking at 2011 stats), we'll welcome him too the big leagues today! Christmas will be here early, I already started hanging my lights up for this one! You don't think the METS are hungry? I gotta say Buerhle is a decent pitcher, just hasn't had the run support he expected the last couple starts. The Mets give it to him today!

    I see a 6-2 METS ball game in this spot

    Season Team W L ERA G GS CG ShO SV HLD BS IP TBF H R ER HR BB IBB HBP WP BK SO

    2011 Diamondbacks (AA) 9 8 4.21 26 26 1 1 0 160.1 688 172 78 75 15 40 0 12 16 1 142

  6. #6
    ridims
    ridims's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-15-10
    Posts: 3,863

    Unproven double A pitcher against a pitcher who has been in the league for over 10 years.....

    books are giving way to much praise for Buerle and miami's lineup.

  7. #7
    sweep
    USA! USA! USA!
    sweep's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-09-10
    Posts: 16,753
    Betpoints: 2457

    Quote Originally Posted by LoneStar View Post
    really...? did you miss the the year before stats (2011)? This kid been playing pee-wee ball; not decent numbers to say the lease. Also striking out pee-wee kids at that ratio is not impressive in the 2 game span (try looking at 2011 stats), we'll welcome him too the big leagues today! Christmas will be here early, I already started hanging my lights up for this one! You don't think the METS are hungry? I gotta say Buerhle is a decent pitcher, just hasn't had the run support he expected the last couple starts. The Mets give it to him today!

    I see a 6-2 METS ball game in this spot

    Season Team W L ERA G GS CG ShO SV HLD BS IP TBF H R ER HR BB IBB HBP WP BK SO

    2011 Diamondbacks (AA) 9 8 4.21 26 26 1 1 160.1 688 172 78 75 15 40 12 16 1 142
    Mets


    Cant make this shit up SBR

  8. #8
    ridims
    ridims's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-15-10
    Posts: 3,863

    Lol @ mets

  9. #9
    taxe91
    taxe91's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-16-12
    Posts: 610

    Quote Originally Posted by LoneStar View Post
    really...? did you miss the the year before stats (2011)? This kid been playing pee-wee ball; not decent numbers to say the lease. Also striking out pee-wee kids at that ratio is not impressive in the 2 game span (try looking at 2011 stats), we'll welcome him too the big leagues today! Christmas will be here early, I already started hanging my lights up for this one! You don't think the METS are hungry? I gotta say Buerhle is a decent pitcher, just hasn't had the run support he expected the last couple starts. The Mets give it to him today!

    I see a 6-2 METS ball game in this spot
    do you even know what teams are playing?

    what do you think about under 7.5 stevenash? if corbin is as good as you say he is and buerhle pitches like has for years is there value in it?
    Last edited by taxe91; 04-30-12 at 10:20 AM.

  10. #10
    ridims
    ridims's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-15-10
    Posts: 3,863

    Lonestar you should become a pro

  11. #11
    TankHankerous
    Frrrrrrunkis!
    TankHankerous's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-22-12
    Posts: 2,088
    Betpoints: 576

    He's saying the mets because jose reyes is on miami now and reyes was basically the whole mets team last year.

    amirite?

  12. #12
    sweep
    USA! USA! USA!
    sweep's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-09-10
    Posts: 16,753
    Betpoints: 2457

    Quote Originally Posted by TankHankerous View Post
    He's saying the mets because jose reyes is on miami now and reyes was basically the whole mets team last year.

    amirite?
    No, he's saying Mets cause he's a dumb fukk

  13. #13
    cdaniels24
    cdaniels24's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-17-12
    Posts: 319
    Betpoints: 1812

    Quote Originally Posted by LoneStar View Post
    really...? did you miss the the year before stats (2011)? This kid been playing pee-wee ball; not decent numbers to say the lease. Also striking out pee-wee kids at that ratio is not impressive in the 2 game span (try looking at 2011 stats), we'll welcome him too the big leagues today! Christmas will be here early, I already started hanging my lights up for this one! You don't think the METS are hungry? I gotta say Buerhle is a decent pitcher, just hasn't had the run support he expected the last couple starts. The Mets give it to him today!


    I see a 6-2 METS ball game in this spot

    Season Team W L ERA G GS CG ShO SV HLD BS IP TBF H R ER HR BB IBB HBP WP BK SO

    2011 Diamondbacks (AA) 9 8 4.21 26 26 1 1 0 160.1 688 172 78 75 15 40 0 12 16 1 142
    Mets????? or do you mean Marlins ???

  14. #14
    TankHankerous
    Frrrrrrunkis!
    TankHankerous's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-22-12
    Posts: 2,088
    Betpoints: 576

    Quote Originally Posted by sweep View Post
    No, he's saying Mets cause he's a dumb fukk
    In that case, D'backs it is!


  15. #15
    2daBank
    2daBank's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-26-09
    Posts: 88,966
    Betpoints: 90

    not so sure this play has the value you think it does, dont get me wrong my 1st reaction after fading fla yesterday (w a fat +170) was " they really this big of favs again?"..and while it really hard to argue with taking the + money to fade these clowns again, i think when talking value you have to consider that Fish were bigger favs yesterday even tho they have the better pitcher going today and facing a kid making his mlb debut...

    with all that said you certainly not gonna see me laying that kind of juice on a team sliding like mia is, but in terms of value you could have Buerlhe vs kid making mlb debut at a cheaper price today than a messed up JJ in Sundays gm so if anything you prob getting Buerlhe at a little discount today thanx to fish struggles..

    prob just a pass for me..bol

  16. #16
    sweep
    USA! USA! USA!
    sweep's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-09-10
    Posts: 16,753
    Betpoints: 2457

    Quote Originally Posted by TankHankerous View Post
    In that case, D'backs it is!


  17. #17
    jstblaze
    jstblaze's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-05-07
    Posts: 767
    Betpoints: 19

    Fish arent struggling. They are just bad.

    I would agree that it is Arizona or nothing in terms of value.

    But game seems like a strange one to me.

  18. #18
    ridims
    ridims's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-15-10
    Posts: 3,863

    books expect this kid to get hammered.

    and rightfully so. he is a AA call up.......

  19. #19
    2daBank
    2daBank's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-26-09
    Posts: 88,966
    Betpoints: 90

    another thing to consider is the ump behind the plate typically has a rather tight kzone, one has to think that this could easily hurt the youngster much more than a vet like Buerlhe....then again fish cant hit anything right now and they hit lefties even worse..

  20. #20
    HotStreak
    Smokin'
    HotStreak's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-12-09
    Posts: 3,235
    Betpoints: 901

    Need 10 runs from AZ today to win a baseball pool at my local bar. Lets go!

  21. #21
    JMobile
    CM Punk -1000.5 (100X)
    JMobile's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-21-10
    Posts: 19,064
    Betpoints: 26848

    So Nash, you're taking this play, correct?

  22. #22
    milwaukee mike
    milwaukee mike's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 08-22-07
    Posts: 26,906
    Betpoints: 7585

    on arizona

    nash and dawson better not fukk me with this one

  23. #23
    xyzky
    xyzky's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-23-07
    Posts: 1,577
    Betpoints: 121

    Like it, GL sir.

  24. #24
    stevenash
    stevenash's Avatar Moderator
    Join Date: 01-17-11
    Posts: 62,604
    Betpoints: 32290

    I got +64. I'll take the call up at juicy odds.
    I read from scouts this guy can frustrate some hitters.
    Let's see.

    Oh, it's not a lock, I'm not even encouraging people to play, I'm just saying there is a good prospect going against a bumbling team today at juicy odds.

    Ticket Accepted Date Risk To Win Status Wager
    119433429-1 4/30/12 12:03pm $100.00 $164.00 Pending 4/30/12 12:40pm MLB Baseball 951 Arizona Diamondbacks +164* vs Miami Marlins (P Corbin - L must Start M Buehrle - L must Start)

  25. #25
    crackerjack
    crackerjack's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-01-06
    Posts: 3,366
    Betpoints: 4099

    Mets arent hungry....they've been feeding off Rockies all weekend.

    I like marlins but I think this is a low scoring game. How many times does a kid making his major league debut get rocked? I have no hard data but seems like rarely. I wanted to bet az TT under but it's 3. Best bet is either under 4 FF or under 25 combined rhe. I will be putting a little on both and cheering for the young rookie. I thing buerhle gets it done today

  26. #26
    stevenash
    stevenash's Avatar Moderator
    Join Date: 01-17-11
    Posts: 62,604
    Betpoints: 32290

    Buehrle could get it done, but be in the dugout in the seventh watching his bullpen walk the bags late in the game.
    That hasn't happened much this year for the Fish has it?

  27. #27
    Nyjrkm06
    Mets
    Nyjrkm06's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-25-12
    Posts: 562
    Betpoints: 150

    dont forget they swept the marlins all games were come from behind =]
    Quote Originally Posted by crackerjack View Post
    Mets arent hungry....they've been feeding off Rockies all weekend.

    I like marlins but I think this is a low scoring game. How many times does a kid making his major league debut get rocked? I have no hard data but seems like rarely. I wanted to bet az TT under but it's 3. Best bet is either under 4 FF or under 25 combined rhe. I will be putting a little on both and cheering for the young rookie. I thing buerhle gets it done today

  28. #28
    ProfaneReality
    ProfaneReality's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-14-09
    Posts: 7,607

    you hamburgers on Zona are gonna get murked.

  29. #29
    BigDaddy
    BigDaddy's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-01-06
    Posts: 8,378
    Betpoints: 729

    i like miami in this one

  30. #30
    freeVICK
    freeVICK's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-21-08
    Posts: 7,114
    Betpoints: 6483

    Montero and kubel out

  31. #31
    stevenash
    stevenash's Avatar Moderator
    Join Date: 01-17-11
    Posts: 62,604
    Betpoints: 32290

    Just play the game, if I'm wrong, I'm wrong, but let's play out the game.

  32. #32
    TankHankerous
    Frrrrrrunkis!
    TankHankerous's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-22-12
    Posts: 2,088
    Betpoints: 576

    1-2-3 inning this game is over....

  33. #33
    crackerjack
    crackerjack's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-01-06
    Posts: 3,366
    Betpoints: 4099

    No no still alive!

  34. #34
    paco
    paco's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-07-09
    Posts: 62,873
    Betpoints: 7051

    Kubel late scratch for zona. He been swinging a hot bat

  35. #35
    crackerjack
    crackerjack's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-01-06
    Posts: 3,366
    Betpoints: 4099

    Quote Originally Posted by stevenash View Post
    Buehrle could get it done, but be in the dugout in the seventh watching his bullpen walk the bags late in the game.
    That hasn't happened much this year for the Fish has it?
    Thats why I go first five though. Hard to handicap what a bullpen is going to do. If you're banking on buerhle going out in the seventh and relievers blowing it you should have bet Az second half. The only thing attractive about az today is +150...but that's my opinion. Best of luck...we can actually both win!

1234 Last
Top