[Sunde91]

Only lines +100 or better are played. -115/-105 type line is not counted

Ott/NY: 3-2 +1.91
Wash/Bos: 4-3 +3.15
NJ/Fla: 2-2 +.55
Phil/Pitt: 5-1 +5.6
East: 14-8 +11.21

LA/Van: 3-2 +2.3
SJ/STL: 1-3 -1.55
CHI/PHX: 4-2 +3.03
DET/Nash: 3-2 +1.77
West: 11-9 +5.55

25-17 (60%) +16.76

average price: +125 (44% implied prob)
biggest dog: Caps game 5 +170 - won

Used covers. Not going to look up all of last year's, but can easily tell dogs were profitable last year by looking at bracket and series results.

Not possible to "cap" playoffs. Throw out bounce back theory. Throw out momentum carrying over. Throw out home ice. Basically nothing ever justifies taking favs. Games decided on fluke rebounds, tip ins, between the legs, bad pass to a break away goal, goalie decided not to show up tonight, etc.

[Pete0]

interesting find.

now someone post last year's results too

[odog11]

Only lines +100 or better are played. -115/-105 type line is not counted

Ott/NY: 3-2 +1.91
Wash/Bos: 4-3 +3.15
NJ/Fla: 2-2 +.55
Phil/Pitt: 5-1 +5.6
East: 14-8 +11.21

LA/Van: 3-2 +2.3
SJ/STL: 1-3 -1.55
CHI/PHX: 4-2 +3.03
DET/Nash: 3-2 +1.77
West: 11-9 +5.55

25-17 (60%) +16.76

average price: +125 (44% implied prob)
biggest dog: Caps game 5 +170 - won

Used covers. Not going to look up all of last year's, but can easily tell dogs were profitable last year by looking at bracket and series results.

Not possible to "cap" playoffs. Throw out bounce back theory. Throw out momentum carrying over. Throw out home ice. Basically nothing ever justifies taking favs. Games decided on fluke rebounds, tip ins, between the legs, bad pass to a break away goal, goalie decided not to show up tonight, etc.

Worth caping to "pick" your spots on the dog plays, but I basically agree. I played St Louis big to win that series and even played them in some of the games, was pretty obvious that dog shark wasn't going to be worth anything. Ottawa decent spot tonight at +140 or above, don't go crazy on it or anything is my advice.

[Jayvegas420]

This is a great post.
Thanks for taking the time.
I am going to reconsider my picks tonight based on this.

[Sunde91]

Van in game 5 is a situation won 90% of the time in NBA. Team dead in the water, down 3-0 on the road, fight for their life to get a win and stay alive, go back home with all the momentum with their star back in the lineup. Start strong 1-0, then dominated in the 3rd and OT and lose

CHI in game 6 is another situation won often in NBA. Down 3-1, win on the road game 5, all the momentum, back to home ice for game 6. Blown out 4-0

Home Ice means nothing. Game 7 road victories are routine, while rare in the NBA. Last 4 Cups were clinched on the road, 2 in game 7.

Just cant be capped. Take dog or nothing every time. Value maximized in road dogs. Another coinflip going on right now

[a4u2fear]

Heard dog PL is 38-3, last year it was 37-12 first round

[Sunde91]

yeah knew that was crazy high also, but didn't have the prices to get a unit count.

Avg is probably about -240, making +30.7 this year and +8.2 last

[a4u2fear]

It was only 62% year before that, maybe worth mentioning goal scoring is down as are power play opportunities

[Jayvegas420]

a4u2fear, were you serious about the power plays being down this year's 1st round or were you just trying to sabotage everyone's bets?

[milwaukee mike]

i agree with you sunde

not only is there parity, but as you said in most of these games you can just flip a coin.

[a4u2fear]

a4u2fear, were you serious about the power plays being down this year's 1st round or were you just trying to sabotage everyone's bets?

I did not mean playoffs. In the first year after the lockout teams lead the league with 550 pp opps, this year it was down to 350 or so. Look up the stats, mind boggling. Just means less goals, more teams staying within +1.5 and hence the numbers rising so much on the dog PL

[Jayvegas420]

ahh I see.
I think Pitt & Philli had more pp's in thier series than all the other eastern teams combined.