[SBR_John]

Basically $3.84 wins $10. For Obama you bet $6.04 to win $10.

I opened an account to load up on Romney but they would only take $25 through a cc. They will take all you can send by wire.

The market is very thin. I'm actually wondering if its staged by some leftest group? I'm not saying its not legit. I think I can buy Romney at $3.84 and for sure get close to $5 by June. But if you look at the volume you can literally move Obama's price .02 for a measly $120. I want to buy $5k of Romney but that would move the price about .10. Bottomline is this is not a good indicator, its too thin. Its chump change. I wouldnt mind making some money so I'll probably send the wire for 2 dimes and make a few hundred but the opportunity is limited by how small this market is.

[CarpeDime]

regardless of who ultimately wins, that will be very hedgeable at some point in the coming months guaranteed

[Brock Landers]

Romney has no fukkin chance to beat Obama, none

[neverstoppers23]

Romney has no fukkin chance to beat Obama, none

was trying to show people this based on the electoral college map, the only thing that matters.
if you give obama all the states that lean left, and give rommney all the states that lean right. he is down by 50 e.c votes.

you need 270 to win.
rommney will need to win both ohio and fL,and probably PA to win.
mostly all the 'swing' states now, look great for obama.

[Kindred]

Iowa state univeristy has a prediction market, for academic research but anyone can trade the presidential election market. It's based on popular vote not electoral collage so before doing any arbitrage make sure intrade is the same. Not sure how liquid the market is and I think there is a $500 limit. I did a electronic bank deposit in 2004 not sure what the options are now..but it's legal in the US no UIGEA restrictions so should be something easier than a wire but doubt they take cc.

If obummer wins I will already be depressed..don't want to have any money on it.

The 2004 election the markets went nuts cause all the democrats who had no jobs voted early and exit polls had Kerry winning so Bush went to big underdog and I started drinking heavily..then the voters with jobs voted AFTER WORK and Kerry lost. Too much excitement for me..thought I lost a bunch of money and Kerry was going to be president...

I hate Mitt but at least he doesn't eat dogs like obummer

[jjgold]

Too many fukkin minorities that are poor
Too many fukkin,lazy mother fukkin americans on unemployment

Thats why Obama wins

[neverstoppers23]

i thought the united states banned residents both taking part in future markets. which is why no one takes them.

[Kindred]

i thought the united states banned residents both taking part in future markets. which is why no one takes them.

I think Iowa gets a pass cause it's nonprofit and for research..
But you can bet on horses legally online but not sports or poker..it's called hypocrisy..the horse racing industry has better political connections than pokerstars.

[Cougar Bait]

I'd vote for a pinball machine that only worked on Saturdays over Obama.

[durito]

try pinnacle

[GunShard]

Romney has no fukkin chance to beat Obama, none

True. Obama has a lot more Twitter followers than Romney. Kind of shows who has the larger public support.

[alling]

I remember on election day of Bush vs Kerry, Bush was a 4-1 dog around 5pm. 3-4 hours later he as a huge favorite. Rumor has left leaning Soros uses Intrade et al. to try to influence the results. Very bad for people who are betting with him, very good for those betting against him. Clearly the value is with Romney.

[wantitall4moi]

was trying to show people this based on the electoral college map, the only thing that matters.
if you give obama all the states that lean left, and give rommney all the states that lean right. he is down by 50 e.c votes.

you need 270 to win.
rommney will need to win both ohio and fL,and probably PA to win.
mostly all the 'swing' states now, look great for obama.

That is the way it has always been. The US presidential election system is a total joke, the way they carry on now is laughable, you know what matters? In order...

1 Florida, sometimes the ONLY state that matters.
2 Ohio
3 California which is actually the most important but because they vote dem every time unless there is a Cal candidate it is a moot point.

The only time Florida was won and the guy wasnt elected was when GB Sr got beat by Clinton. It was the only reason GB Jr won in 2000 and people still think it was rigged. But he also won Ohio but lost Mich so those were the 3 true 'swing' states.

But for all intents and purposes with the way it is set up, the states that can go either way like Florida, Ohio are the 2 states that ever really matter. Basically the other 48 States are going to go the way they always go.

I broke it down before, but basically Texas and New York now cancel each other out, as NY is a Dem state all the way and Tex is predominantly Rep. Then you have Cal which hasnt voted rep since the Dem choice was Dukakis.

But really right now the bias for Democrats in the electoral college is HUGE. It has shown, Republicans had to basically steal the last two they won, even when Kerry only won 19 states he could have won the election if he had take either Florida or Ohio. Some people still clai he also won Florida which was also mired in controversy in both elections Bush won.

Basically as it is right now and really as it has always been the only way Democrats lose a presidential election is to have a completely inept and unelectable candidate and even that didnt hurt Obama who has shown he is completely incapable of doing the job, but he was elected once and will probably win again because of the way it is set up.

Why do you think Republicans try so hard to get a California candidate, because that state is really the one that makes the most difference but because it is almost always democrat it just doesnt seem like it, but when a rep carries it it is always a landslide victory for them.

So as it stands right now it comes down to two states, all the nonsense and CNN coverage and predictions dont mean jack shit. Until flroida and Ohio are both tallied it is anyone's ball game, but as it stands Replublicans pretty much have to win both to offset the most important state of California. and even then both of them combined dont add up to enough now.

[muldoon]

Rumor has left leaning Soros uses Intrade et al. to try to influence the results.

LOL. How do you guys even keep all your rumors in order?

Does he make the trades from his black helicopter while he photoshops obama's birth certificate over top of those fema camps?

[slacker00]

Good value on Romney.

[d2bets]

I remember on election day of Bush vs Kerry, Bush was a 4-1 dog around 5pm. 3-4 hours later he as a huge favorite. Rumor has left leaning Soros uses Intrade et al. to try to influence the results. Very bad for people who are betting with him, very good for those betting against him. Clearly the value is with Romney.

Nonsense. Besides, being the favorite doesn't influence results in your favor. If anything, it would have the opposite effect. Overconfident supporters. Besides, Intrade has Obama as less of a favorite than any sportsbook. In other words, if anything Intrade is undervaluing Obama.

The thread title is misleading anyway. Romney is roughly +160 at Intrade. Nowhere near 3/1.

[SBR_John]

try pinnacle

I want a tradeable bet like Intrade offers. Not looking to stake the dog and ride it out. I think the Intrade Romney offer at 3.82 will creep up to $5 or probably safer to bail around $4.80 by mid June. And I seriously doubt it will fall below $3.50 by then. Looks like a good trade imo. But again, has to be small potatoes. May not be able to unload more than 500 shares without affecting the market.

[neverstoppers23]

That is the way it has always been. The US presidential election system is a total joke, the way they carry on now is laughable, you know what matters? In order...

1 Florida, sometimes the ONLY state that matters.
2 Ohio
3 California which is actually the most important but because they vote dem every time unless there is a Cal candidate it is a moot point.

The only time Florida was won and the guy wasnt elected was when GB Sr got beat by Clinton. It was the only reason GB Jr won in 2000 and people still think it was rigged. But he also won Ohio but lost Mich so those were the 3 true 'swing' states.

But for all intents and purposes with the way it is set up, the states that can go either way like Florida, Ohio are the 2 states that ever really matter. Basically the other 48 States are going to go the way they always go.

I broke it down before, but basically Texas and New York now cancel each other out, as NY is a Dem state all the way and Tex is predominantly Rep. Then you have Cal which hasnt voted rep since the Dem choice was Dukakis.

But really right now the bias for Democrats in the electoral college is HUGE. It has shown, Republicans had to basically steal the last two they won, even when Kerry only won 19 states he could have won the election if he had take either Florida or Ohio. Some people still clai he also won Florida which was also mired in controversy in both elections Bush won.

Basically as it is right now and really as it has always been the only way Democrats lose a presidential election is to have a completely inept and unelectable candidate and even that didnt hurt Obama who has shown he is completely incapable of doing the job, but he was elected once and will probably win again because of the way it is set up.

Why do you think Republicans try so hard to get a California candidate, because that state is really the one that makes the most difference but because it is almost always democrat it just doesnt seem like it, but when a rep carries it it is always a landslide victory for them.

So as it stands right now it comes down to two states, all the nonsense and CNN coverage and predictions dont mean jack shit. Until flroida and Ohio are both tallied it is anyone's ball game, but as it stands Replublicans pretty much have to win both to offset the most important state of California. and even then both of them combined dont add up to enough now.

Agree with everything you just said, and the growing latino population is anther reason why. Colorado was always a republican state intill recently and the growing latino population there. As the latino population keeps growing over the next few years, decades, republicans unless they change dramatically are doomed to being a geographic party.

Also, the last two times the gop won was with bush(obviously), and he actually got 'okay' latino support. compared to what rommney is getting, anyways. its going to take a-lot more then rommne just selecting rubio and claiming how Mexican he is for him to get votes.

[Jerm3462]

Too many fukkin,lazy mother fukkin americans on unemployment

Thats why Obama wins

I worked for a company for 2 years. Went to work everyday. Even in blizzards, when even the boss didn't make it. Was told I was going to be promoted to a supervisor position later in the year, due to my hard work.

So I'm at work one day, and the owner asks me to come see him before i leave for the day. Weird, but ok...maybe that promotion is coming my way yay....


Owner, "Jeremy we would like to thank you for the work you did for this company. Unfortunately we are going out of business today. As of 5pm today, this company no longer exists"

Me "Um what just happened here???"

Owner, "We are sorry, we just didn't make it, we are working on printing your last paycheck now"

Me" but I have bills, I need this job"

Owner " Please see Tina for your last check and a reference letter"


Jj, this is why we are on unemployment.

It isn't always about lazy Americans.

[SBR_John]

I worked for a company for 2 years. Went to work everyday. Even in blizzards, when even the boss didn't make it. Was told I was going to be promoted to a supervisor position later in the year, due to my hard work.

So I'm at work one day, and the owner asks me to come see him before i leave for the day. Weird, but ok...maybe that promotion is coming my way yay....


Owner, "Jeremy we would like to thank you for the work you did for this company. Unfortunately we are going out of business today. As of 5pm today, this company no longer exists"

Me "Um what just happened here???"

Owner, "We are sorry, we just didn't make it, we are working on printing your last paycheck now"

Me" but I have bills, I need this job"

Owner " Please see Tina for your last check and a reference letter"


Jj, this is why we are on unemployment.

It isn't always about lazy Americans.

Good luck finding work.

Unfortunately we cannot create an accelerating economy and job environment with a president who has not one new initiative for getting business going. Not one. Instead, he campaigns and wastes precious time with initiatives like the millionaire tax that raises practically nothing and creates zero new jobs. Nothing against Obama. he tried several stimulus packages that plunged the country deeply in debt so much so our credit rating was cut. After that failure you can see there is no plan B. He doesn't know what to do.

[brettels]

As an outsider looking in, have black people increased in crime since obama became president?

[thechaoz]

Obama is dominating swing and independent voters. Minorities, women, independents, etc. I don't bother voting my state always gives dems the electoral, but Romney as the nominee is a joke.

[muldoon]

Nothing against Obama. he tried several stimulus packages that plunged the country deeply in debt so much so our credit rating was cut. After that failure you can see there is no plan B. He doesn't know what to do.

You blame the stimulus, the actual rating agency that lowered the rating, said otherwise.

"We have changed our assumption on this because the majority of Republicans in Congress continue to resist any measure that would raise revenues, a position we believe Congress reinforced by passing the act."
http://abcnews.go.com/Business/stand...0#.T5JOzatSS-8

[Jerm3462]

John I understand you want Romney to win but I dunno man. You might not want to wager that.

This country has a lot of minorities in it.

And the US citizens throughout history generally give the President a 2nd term. I think there's only a couple instances of Presidents being voted out after 1 term.

[neverstoppers23]

Obama is dominating swing and independent voters. Minorities, women, independents, etc. I don't bother voting my state always gives dems the electoral, but Romney as the nominee is a joke.

yes sir. in every swing state obama is winning. and its the the point where he could afford to lose either ohio or fl. rommney absoltley needs both.
rommney is so desprite to win, ohio. he is going to select so no-name senator from ohio , portman. a man who is probably a more zzzing guy then he is.

[andywend]

Basically $3.84 wins $10. For Obama you bet $6.04 to win $10.

I opened an account to load up on Romney but they would only take $25 through a cc. They will take all you can send by wire.

The market is very thin. I'm actually wondering if its staged by some leftest group? I'm not saying its not legit. I think I can buy Romney at $3.84 and for sure get close to $5 by June. But if you look at the volume you can literally move Obama's price .02 for a measly $120. I want to buy $5k of Romney but that would move the price about .10. Bottomline is this is not a good indicator, its too thin. Its chump change. I wouldnt mind making some money so I'll probably send the wire for 2 dimes and make a few hundred but the opportunity is limited by how small this market is.

John, you're misinterpreting the prices quoted on Intrade.

The prices represent the percentage chance of each candidate winning the election and each individual contract settles at $10 for the winner. Romney is currently trading at 38 so you would be risking $3.80 to win $6.20 (getting back a total of $10) making him a +163 underdog.

Obama is currently priced at 60 (you have to put up $6.00 to win $4.00) making him a -150 favorite.

While its pretty much a done deal that Romney will be the republican nominee, there is an extremely slim chance something weird will happen which explains why Obama's price of 60 and Romney's price of 38 does NOT add up to 100%.

There are 2858 contracts listed between 60 and 62 on the buy side for Obama totalling $28,580 in volume so I'm not sure where you're getting this $120 figure you speak of. Also, its important to note that large traders are hesitant on putting up huge blocks of contracts as something big can happen at any time and if the news goes against their orders, they will get picked off.

If you want to buy or sell either Obama or Romney and are willing to pay even one point above the market, you would have no trouble getting filled for $100,000 worth of action within 24 hours.

To anyone thinking of loading up on Obama solely on the basis of polls copied and pasted by liberal democrats showing Obama having huge leads in the swing states, DON'T DO IT. There are tons of polls being taken across the nation ranging from Romney having small leads to Obama having as much as a double digit lead. When you do your polling in Boston, Massachusetts, its not surprising to learn that Obama is up by double digits.

Liberal democrats spend their days searching only for polls that show Obama with the biggest lead possible. Any poll they come across that shows the race being close they choose to ignore in a form of mental masturbation if you will. If Obama was ahead of Romney outside the margin of error in the crucial swing states, he wouldn't be trading anywhere near 60 especially being the incumbent.

If you think Obama is going to win the election due to your own research, then Intrade is definitely the place to bet as they have Obama listed at the best price.

This election is very close and will tighten up even further now that the GOP nominee has pretty much been decided.

[aceking]

if W can win 2 times , anything is possible .

Hilary could be 1st woman president ...

[Boscoe]

took gop to win between 270-289 electoral votes a while back at 5-1.

[opie1988]

I think the only thing we can be certain of at this time is that Obama sucks.

[Easy-Rider 66]

Obama is dominating swing and independent voters. Minorities, women, independents, etc. I don't bother voting my state always gives dems the electoral, but Romney as the nominee is a joke.

Imo that will change once Romney hits the trail as the nominee. I think he will get the Independent vote and win.

[andywend]

Imo that will change once Romney hits the trail as the nominee. I think he will get the Independent vote and win.

From your mouth to God's ears, buddy.

Appreciate the points John. Since you're a fellow anti-Obama man, if you're planning on betting a large amount on Romney, I would max out on him at whatever sportsbooks you might have accounts at first as you can get better than +163 elsewhere.

One of the big advantages at Intrade is the ability to sell in and out based on your opinion going forward relative to the price offered. Every now and then, the prices can really spike for no real reason.

If you do decide to bet on Romney, it would make his victory that much sweeter thats for sure. On the other hand, if Obama wins, it makes it that much worse.

Good luck.

[Shaudius]

To anyone thinking of loading up on Obama solely on the basis of polls copied and pasted by liberal democrats showing Obama having huge leads in the swing states, DON'T DO IT. There are tons of polls being taken across the nation ranging from Romney having small leads to Obama having as much as a double digit lead. When you do your polling in Boston, Massachusetts, its not surprising to learn that Obama is up by double digits.

Most of what you said in your post is spot on, but I have to quibble with this. The location a poll originates from has no baring on its results. They don't use local numbers to call from. But my question would be if you believe this flaw to be the case, what in their methodology supports it? What do you think the liberal bias is in the polling methodology that explains the wild swings?

[SBR_John]

Romney's market
PriceQuantity
$3.82 / Share74 shares
$3.83 / Share101 shares
$3.85 / Share122 shares
$3.86 / Share122 shares
$3.87 / Share33 shares

The problem I see is if you try to buy Romney for a few thousand you move the market considerably and worse if you get a move up and want to sell you will be caught in a very thin market.

Another poster said you can get down 100k with no problem but I don't see it.

[durito]

matchbook had big liquidity last time 6 months out, but they have none now.

pinny take 5k a pop, moves the line a few cents.

[neverstoppers23]

Imo that will change once Romney hits the trail as the nominee. I think he will get the Independent vote and win.

LOL, i will bet the rest of my points forever, and ever, as long as i am on sbr if rommney wins overall with independents.