[stevenash]

This is pretty much what I posted in Blondie's thread earlier this morning.

I like the Pittsburgh Pirates +120 with Erik Bedard over the Arizona Diamondbacks and Joe Saunders, and here is why.

Don't let the 0-2 record fool you. Bedard's ERA in his first two starts is a tidy 2.25, and his WHIP ratio is not eye popping, but it's still better than league average at 1.33 against Philly and LAD earlier this month.

I've always liked Bedard's stuff in the AL, I follow the Yankees, I have seen Bedard pitch often in the AL East, and his stuff has always impressed me.
Forget those 8 starts he made for Boston last year, that middle of the season, three team trade to Boston messed him up, that was tough on him, even still he struck out 38 in 38 innings in his short stint as a Red Sox.

Before that trade, as a Mariner, he was stellar last year solid WHIP ratio 1.28, solid ERA 3.62

Bedard's career numbers, while pitching for pretty much crappy teams are solid also, in 9 seasons, his ERA and WHIP ratio's are better than league averages 1.31 and 3.68, his won loss record is over .500 which is impressive considering who he has pitched for in the previous nine years, and he's a strike out pitcher, a good one, striking out almost nine a game, and I belong to the "strikeout pitchers are sexy' club.

Now he's in the National League, so the sample size of the batters he's going to face tonight is not large, but this is encouraging.
Hill has hit him a little, but look at the strike outs too.

ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS CAREER STATISTICS VS. ERIK BEDARD
BATTER	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Henry Blanco	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	.000	.000	.000	.000
Willie Bloomquist	7	2	0	0	0	1	0	2	.286	.286	.286	.571
Geoff Blum	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000	.000
Stephen Drew	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	.000	.000	.000	.000
Aaron Hill	20	6	0	0	0	4	1	5	.300	.333	.300	.633
Jason Kubel	7	1	0	0	0	0	2	1	.143	.333	.143	.476
John McDonald	13	4	1	0	0	3	1	1	.308	.357	.385	.742
Lyle Overbay	13	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	.231	.286	.308	.593
Chris Young	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	.000	.000	.000	.000
Totals	70	16	2	0	0	9	5	13	.229	.276	.257	.533

Joe Saunders starts for the D-Backs, I understand his first start was solid, but it was San Diego and that Little League line up, and with the exception of that 17-7 2008 year as an Angel, his career has been lackluster at best. Throw out that season, his WHIP ratio for his career pitching in a weak hitting AL West division mind you is a poor 1.45 and ERA of about 4.50 (give or take)

He's not a strike out pitcher, Pirates (even though they are currently not setting the world on fire) have enough sticks to beat Saunders, are coming off a nice underdog win yesterday, and it's always a good bet to bet a dog coming off a win as a dog. I could post those numbers too, but I really don't want to turn this into War and Peace.

McCuthchen is hitting, Neil Walker's bat is waking up now, Presley at the top of the order is sound, the Pirates can run the bases, and have, like I said, enough offense to rough up the rotund Joe Saunders.

I personally think the public takes a beating on this game, the perceived line is low for the D-Backs -130/+120 (but I believe the line is correct) so I personally think the casual fan will run to the betting window laying what they think is a very affordable -130 for a 6-3 Diamondback team *at home* against what they perceive to be a crappy 3-6 Pirate team on the road.

I can read Joe Public's mind right now, "I can't believe the 6-3 Diamondbacks are only -130 at home against a crappy 3-6 road Pirates,
I got 400 to win 300 on this easy matchup"

I personally think Joe Public's thinking in this match up tonight is flawed.

1) D-Backs are a square bet tonight.
2) Bedard matches up very well against Saunders.
3) Pirates bats should smack Saunders.

Take the Pirates over the Snakes, you won't get rich at +120, but I like them in this spot tonight. I do

[JMobile]

[DudleyDawson]

good bet, Pirates TT over too

[stevenash]

^
thnaks, good luck

[EVPlus]

stevenash - good write up. What do you think of the O/U 8.5?

TIA

[EXhoosier10]

Besides Boston this morning, I thought this and ATL were the other good plays tonight.

[ebelisle22]

i have diamondbacks, gl

[face]

respect your writeup and wager, and good luck, neil walker's bat better wake up, guy has 5 hits, none for extra bases, in 29 at bats. 4 of the hits were in the last 7 days though.
not a good baseball capper by any means, but i can't bet on the pirates.

[Monitor-Tan]

I was actualyl looking at this one too Nash, only thing that scares me is that Young and like couple of D'Backs hitters are crushing lefties right now..

[Smutbucket]

crushing bad lefties or good lefties like bedard? theres a difference

i like pirates here too because the numbers agree and theres not much to turn me away from this

[stevenash]

Bloomquist SS
Hill 2B
Upton RF
Montero C
Young CF
Goldschmidt 1B
Kubel LF
Roberts 3B
(Saunders P)

[KingJD31]

i have diamondbacks, gl

same saunders is nasty will surprise ppl

[og4667]

get the angle, but don't forget the Dbacks are a great home team just like the Brewers were last year...doesn't mean they can't lose tonight but I wouldn't get too sharp here. Line movement does reinforce your thinking...can you even trust the Pirates to put up more than 3 runs?

[Redscot]

I like it , sound reasoning.

[varkeyboy]

You REALLY trust the Pirates??????? I'm on D'Backs BIG tonight.

[EVPlus]

Sometimes square is sharp...Either the snakes or no play for me. BOL

[fergie's balls]

great write up Nash. psyched to see as im slumming tongiht with Pirates and Padres. Bedard backer as well. Saunders was shit in the AL, i don't believe in breakout year last year after 5/6 shit years. has no out pitch like you said. i see Pirates advantage here on bump with + so this is a good play. i got +124 last night.

[TankHankerous]

Got 2 faves- nats and tigers, and 1 dog- the pirates in a 3 team parlay for 50 pays 180.

If it wasn't for strasburg it would pay more like 250.

Pirates will win a blowout.

[balls2wall]

...nvm


I am only on my first beer and I am reading shit wrong

[neverstoppers23]

my money is on the dback

[DudleyDawson]

You look for this type of movements everyday....classic situations, do they win every time? NO, but most of the time? YES..I will never pass a bet up, EVER seeing this:




For the ones who don't understand it.....you got 3/4 of the public backing Zona, while the lines has dropped from -145 to -124....like I said I will take this bet each and every time.

[jerry]

You look for this type of movements everyday....classic situations, do they win every time? NO, but most of the time? YES..I will never pass a bet up, EVER seeing this:




For the ones who don't understand it.....you got 3/4 of the public backing Zona, while the lines has dropped from -145 to -124....like I said I will take this bet each and every time.

RLM

[Ron29301]

You look for this type of movements everyday....classic situations, do they win every time? NO, but most of the time? YES..I will never pass a bet up, EVER seeing this:




For the ones who don't understand it.....you got 3/4 of the public backing Zona, while the lines has dropped from -145 to -124....like I said I will take this bet each and every time.

The Pirates cannot score to save their life.
. I'd take the Dbacks.

[KingJD31]

You look for this type of movements everyday....classic situations, do they win every time? NO, but most of the time? YES..I will never pass a bet up, EVER seeing this:




For the ones who don't understand it.....you got 3/4 of the public backing Zona, while the lines has dropped from -145 to -124....like I said I will take this bet each and every time.

only thing that matters who do you think is going to win meaningless shit stats like this make me feel better about my dbacks

[D3 Mighty Ducks]

I'll take a shot with it, gl

[EVPlus]

You look for this type of movements everyday....classic situations, do they win every time? NO, but most of the time? YES..I will never pass a bet up, EVER seeing this:




For the ones who don't understand it.....you got 3/4 of the public backing Zona, while the lines has dropped from -145 to -124....like I said I will take this bet each and every time.

There's a tout service that tracks where the money is going, steam plays, etc. to make their picks. Their record - though not dismal - is less than impressive.

RLMs used to have more weight. However, I'm convinced the market has caught up to those who rely heavily on it.

BOL with your play.

[stevenash]

Presley LF
Tabata RF
McCutchen CF
McGehee 1B
Walker 2B
Barajas C
Harrison 3B
Barmes SS
(Bedard P)

[Smutbucket]

LOL to the geniouses who said Saunders would suprise us all....HE BLOWS! CASH THE PIRATES already. good pick nash

[KingJD31]

LOL to the geniouses who said Saunders would suprise us all....HE BLOWS! CASH THE PIRATES already. good pick nash

first inning guy stfu Im above you in picking baseball winners

[KingJD31]

games over pirates up 1 huge run

[Smutbucket]

if you watched the 1st inning and can evaluate pitching youd understand.....maybe im just crazy, maybe hell REALLY SURPRISE US NOW!

especially since Ive seen bedard pitch in the past and this dudes aces

[D3 Mighty Ducks]

Wow, go figure. The only player on the Dbacks lineup that has any success hitting Bedard cranks a solo homer in his first at bat.

Fukk you Aaron Hill.

[Smutbucket]

im switching over to giants/phils game, this game should be an easy game for the pirates...

[fergie's balls]

Saunders won't last 5. Bedard of all people with 7 pitch at bat and base hit. Fade Saunders all year...

[TankHankerous]

Anyone have a stream? I don't see one on firstrow