1. 04-13-12 03:14 PM #1
    SlickFazzer
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    Does anyone blindly follow ML overnights...and pound a 10 cent or more move at pinny?

    how have your results been?
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  2. 04-13-12 03:17 PM #2
    No coincidences
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    I don't blindly play them all, but I do keep an eye on them.

    Doesn't seem to lend itself to anything big.
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  3. 04-13-12 03:19 PM #3
    SlickFazzer
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    The general thought is that typically sharp money bet earlier than recreational.

    So if a line opens at +140 and moves to +130 in a couple hours..someone who knows
    what they are doing is betting it...
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  4. 04-13-12 03:29 PM #4
    No coincidences
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    Quote Originally Posted by SlickFazzer View Post
    The general thought is that typically sharp money bet earlier than recreational.

    So if a line opens at +140 and moves to +130 in a couple hours..someone who knows
    what they are doing is betting it...
    In the past I would agree with you 100% and made a lot of money tailing such.

    I can't say the same about the last six months or so.
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  5. 04-13-12 11:16 PM #5
    soul786
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    Quote Originally Posted by No coincidences View Post
    In the past I would agree with you 100% and made a lot of money tailing such.

    I can't say the same about the last six months or so.
    If you bet the NBA then yes, its turned to shorseshit the way this season's played out.

    I'd be interested in other sports like baseball or the nhl though
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  6. 04-14-12 12:38 AM #6
    jjgold
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    Very few recreational bettors are betting overnights

    Fazzer seems to know something although still dont know if theory is solid
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  7. 04-14-12 12:51 AM #7
    dodger33
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    Blue Jays went from -175 to -188 last night.... lots of good that was.
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  8. 04-15-12 10:31 AM #8
    Kindred
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    Quote Originally Posted by SlickFazzer View Post
    The general thought is that typically sharp money bet earlier than recreational.

    So if a line opens at +140 and moves to +130 in a couple hours..someone who knows
    what they are doing is betting it...
    Overnight limits are low and it takes less money to move a line since there is lower volume. "sharps" might wait until morning to bet at full limits so be careful blindly chasing line movement
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  9. 04-15-12 12:54 PM #9
    superjeff24
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    Quote Originally Posted by dodger33 View Post
    Blue Jays went from -175 to -188 last night.... lots of good that was.

    yeah because 1 bet is a great indicator of variance.


    For overnights I'd say it'd be worth inputting into a spreadsheet. If it was just regular drops, it could easily be public bettors.
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  10. 04-15-12 12:57 PM #10
    superjeff24
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    Quote Originally Posted by SlickFazzer View Post
    The general thought is that typically sharp money bet earlier than recreational.

    So if a line opens at +140 and moves to +130 in a couple hours..someone who knows
    what they are doing is betting it...

    I agree with you. Do you think that any books would change lines to try tricking people into thinking the sharp money is on that side? or is that overthinking things too much?
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  11. 04-15-12 01:01 PM #11
    jolmscheid
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    I have always wondered about this as well...I would love to backtest it but its pretty difficult to do..
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