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Line error question
Suppose a book posts a 2H NBA total of 91.5 and before anyone else opens a number, you hit the over and they move it to 92. Then within a minute later other books post numbers of 100 and it more or less stays at 100.
Is the book justified to void the O91.5 wager before the 2nd half begins?
mathy
was Pinny's number already out? was there another 2h game at the same time where 92 would have been an appropriate total?Originally Posted by mathdotcom
I would say that's justified, but only because basketball 2h totals are SO formulaic that you can guess within 2 points what they'll be almost all the time
No to both of your questions
never but you're not going to get anywhere.
Not sure I disagree with book's move here but you are right you would have no chance of winning a dispute.
i mean, if i know the 2h total was 100 and i know the 1h score I bet I can guess the full game closing total within 1.5 points, if you told me the 2h total was 92 i'd probably be like 15 points off
even a book that is trying to be cool by hanging 2h lines before anyone else can still guess within a point or two what pinny and the rest of the market numbers will be, so no book would put a number that far off without it being a legit mistake on their part
Well imo no book is never 'justified' when voiding bets irrespective of the situation, so no their not
Key here is the move to 92, that means they really thought it should be in that ballpark.
Voiding now when it becomes clear they been wrong = stealing, but ofc we all know books can do what they want.
if they're going to post a number first they should stand by it as should whatever punter who plays it. Whether it was it was a "good or bad" number is irrelevant until now as it looks foolish in retrospect. if they are incompetent so be it.
The one exception to me would be a gross error putting up a total at like 9.15 which I would be more inclined to side with the book because the likelihood of action in that case is low vs. the potential goodwill you reap from reporting it however small it might be.
I mean i'll never side with a book unless it's to my benefit and am surprised by others who bitch about "shot takers" unless they are employed or have an ownership stake in the operation. to me a regular punter taking a books side is just odd.
The opener of 91.5 is a bad number, and you should expect it to be voided.
well it depends on the book, it was probably an automated move
If Pinny opens a college hoops total with the wrong line, which does sometimes happen, like a game with an intended total of 129 will open at 147 or something, rarely but it definitely does happen there, the line will still move as it gets pounded
that is SO off, and more importantly, 2h lines are SO formulaic, that yeah I would say that qualifies as a clear-cut bad line
I mean what was the full game closing total?? It could not have been lower than 194. No game with a total of 194 will have a 2h total of 92, no matter what the 1h score is
Btw, was it at Greek? My group used to bet a lot of NCAAB halftimes at Greek, since they opened early. We had several wagers voided, and even had one account suspended for "betting bad lines" when they were the only one up. We eventually started passing on any opener that was more than 2.5 points off our number.
The Greek does this all the time, i've mainly seen it with NFL 2nd halfs where they would take an opener offline after it becomes clear the Pinny line is different by several points. 2nd halfs can mean they had info a key player won't return, and turns out they been wrong...
then they use this shady bad line rule to cover their asses.
yeah I was going to say, if it happens once in a great while, then no problem, but if it starts happening with any kind of semi-regularity then yes that's BS and in theory the book should honor it
Ding ding ding J7
Now the interesting part of this though is why the move to 92?
Yeah, look at today's Wizards/Pistons game. 65 points in the 1H, but they post a 95 total on the 2H when the full game total was 195.
2H total is pretty much going to equal half the full game, minus 2 or 3, with a possible adjustment of one or two points either way.
They have your biz cause they post early, posting early is risky, they should honor the bet. The fact that they moved it to 2 proves they thought it was close. The fact that they do it on the regular means you should be taking your biz elsewhere.
I'm confused..... That 2h total of 95 seems right to me. I mean u said it yourself the 2h total is pretty much going to equal half the full game (195 full game half 97.5 ) minus 2 or 3, ( 97.5) minus 2 or 3 (95.5 or 94.5) the 2h line posted was 95. Ummmmm
If they don't catch it right away, they move on action. Sometimes they put in the wrong game spread or game total (e.g. looking at the wrong game). They take 1-2 bets, move it, and say "oh shit!" Then re-enter it, and fix it.
Either the software auto-adjusts according to bets, or they didn't catch the mistake right away. Similar case with 5Dimes on golf top 5 prop lines dispute. Although I think books should eat it if the mistake is not 100% obvious, but SBR won't stand behind players in such cases.
By the way, can players argue to have the bet graded according to proper odds, like -500 in this case?
Last edited by wrongturn; 03-27-12 at 09:35 AM.
Their rules state they can void a bet if it's an obvious line error. If they took the bet, shrugged and moved it to 92, it is not an obvious line error. They probably only realized once action poured in on the over and others posted totals closer to 100.
That rule should be in place to protect them from posting +2000 moneylines instead of +200. How much leeway are we going to give them? If pinn opened 96 is 92 an obvious line error now? What if pinn opened 94? Where do we draw the line?
It's too bad players can't do this. What if I had a brain fart and bet the U91.5 by accident? It is an obvious mis-bet as I obviously want the over. Do I get to cancel my bet before the event begins?
No. If this happens then the only bettors requesting this option are the ones who won. And if it's always applied by the book regardless of outcome then a player who bets O91.5 and cashes only to see his account was credited 1/5th the amount isn't going to be happy either. But as we know books can do whatever they want.
Business as usual.
yeah that's the problem, "obvious line error" is subjective
to someone who follows NBA lines and 2h lines closely, and had handicapped that game, I think to that person it WOULD have been an "obvious error"
I mean I definitely remember at Pinny once seeing a college hoops opening total, and loving it, betting it big, and then after looking at a few more things and thinking about it for a minute, realizing that it was an error, which of course it turned out to be. The actual opening line wound up being like 18 points different. It wasn't an obvious error to me at first but may have been to someone else, and it became obvious to me after a few minutes
yeah that is the issue, i guess you could come up with some sort of "% edge" off of an average of lines from a basket of major books for each individual market if you wanted to come up with some kind of formal "line" for bad lines
yeah that's the problem every player needs to be aware of - if the linesman gets smashed and sets insane lines, your bets are voided. If you get smashed and make insane bets, you pay
CRIS just did the same thing, coincidentally they posted 91.5 on Mavs 2h which should be 95.
So... is this a line error?
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