1. #1
    jjgold
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    Do Any Players Beat Pinnacle??

    ??????????

  2. #2
    mcbaseball10
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    Only the Americans.

  3. #3
    hels
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    Yes

    /thread

  4. #4
    John Dough
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    No... not a single player... EVER.

  5. #5
    minet123
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    doesn't matter they are a 2.5 % options trading house so they always win

  6. #6
    jjgold
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    I hear so many people saying Pinnacle vs other books weakers lines is slightly profitable over time

  7. #7
    brooks85
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    get me an account there

  8. #8
    durito
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    why do the lines move all the time?

  9. #9
    LT Profits
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    Yes Pinnacle has winning players, but Pinny uses that to their advantage.

  10. #10
    Brock Landers
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    i had a winning record till Pinnacle kicked americans to the curb

  11. #11
    Grits n' Gravy
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    Yes.

  12. #12
    paranoyd androyd
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    Quote Originally Posted by minet123 View Post
    doesn't matter they are a 2.5 % options trading house so they always win
    where did you get 2.5% from?

  13. #13
    indio
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    They have a lot of winning players, and even more losing players. Pretty much the whole point of being a volume bookmaker.

    Heck, if you have someone who does nothing but bet into -104 lines, and bets the same amount each and every time, he breaks even hitting 51%. That same person could flip a coin every -104 offering and hit 50% in theory. So if a monkey can win 500 out of 1000 and lose 1.92% of his roll, can a real good player win 525 out of 1000 and make 2.98% on his roll? Of course they can. Easy? Heck no.

    Anyone who gambles, or books, figured out a long time ago that players beat themselves with irrationality. Great handicappers who can win 55% of their bets go broke all the time because they either manage their roll incorrectly, or succumb to the pressures of variance and screw up badly.

    I bet I could offer people +105 on the flip of a coin, and more than half will go broke.

    Being in the US myself, i lost access to Pinny in 2007, so I'm not abreast of their limits these days. But if you can find 1000 contests a year laying -104 for 5k limits without price changes, and you can win 525 out of 1000, you are properly rolled with a $400,000 roll, and you dont panic when you go on a losing run of losing 20 out of 25 some week, you're looking at a profit of 150k/yr.

    Fact is though, if someone has $400,000 to gamble/invest, and they're that savy and disciplined, they're more likely to be trading commodities, or trading options, or something else. But there are those who do it, I'm quite sure. But considering 98% of gamblers are degenerate action junkies, Pinny does just fine keeping the money flowing in.
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  14. #14
    as99
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    Pinnacle is all you need if all you're going to do is put down straight wagers. Parlays are a waste of money management, since the juice is so high they actually save you.

    Only thing that would be a good addition would be NBA totals and reverse NHL lines for the -0.5 regulation.

    Live betting is awesome when it comes to baseball.

    Finally the payouts are fast.

  15. #15
    RickySteve
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    Quote Originally Posted by indio View Post
    Fact is though, if someone has $400,000 to gamble/invest, and they're that savy and disciplined, they're more likely to be trading commodities, or trading options, or something else.
    Take two random 65-year-old women and give them each $400,000. The CEO of Goldman Sachs will teach one to gamble in financial markets and I will teach the other to invest in sports markets. My sexy protegee is a huge favorite to have more money over any time horizon.
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  16. #16
    d2bets
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    Quote Originally Posted by RickySteve View Post
    Take two random 65-year-old women and give them each $400,000. The CEO of Goldman Sachs will teach one to gamble in financial markets and I will teach the other to invest in sports markets. My sexy protegee is a huge favorite to have more money over any time horizon.
    How does the time investment of the sexy proteges compare?
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  17. #17
    Ruifgalmeida
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    I have a winning record with pinnacle with my 8years old account , still find very intriguing their business model

  18. #18
    durito
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    Quote Originally Posted by indio View Post
    They have a lot of winning players, and even more losing players. Pretty much the whole point of being a volume bookmaker.

    Heck, if you have someone who does nothing but bet into -104 lines, and bets the same amount each and every time, he breaks even hitting 51%. That same person could flip a coin every -104 offering and hit 50% in theory. So if a monkey can win 500 out of 1000 and lose 1.92% of his roll, can a real good player win 525 out of 1000 and make 2.98% on his roll? Of course they can. Easy? Heck no.

    Anyone who gambles, or books, figured out a long time ago that players beat themselves with irrationality. Great handicappers who can win 55% of their bets go broke all the time because they either manage their roll incorrectly, or succumb to the pressures of variance and screw up badly.

    I bet I could offer people +105 on the flip of a coin, and more than half will go broke.

    Being in the US myself, i lost access to Pinny in 2007, so I'm not abreast of their limits these days. But if you can find 1000 contests a year laying -104 for 5k limits without price changes, and you can win 525 out of 1000, you are properly rolled with a $400,000 roll, and you dont panic when you go on a losing run of losing 20 out of 25 some week, you're looking at a profit of 150k/yr.

    Fact is though, if someone has $400,000 to gamble/invest, and they're that savy and disciplined, they're more likely to be trading commodities, or trading options, or something else. But there are those who do it, I'm quite sure. But considering 98% of gamblers are degenerate action junkies, Pinny does just fine keeping the money flowing in.
    A sharpsports gambler with a 400k roll has a way better expected return than you would find in any trading market.

  19. #19
    Stocks
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    I've heard from a few arb guys who are big winners overall but are down pretty big at Pinnacle which seems to be the norm.

  20. #20
    indio
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    Quote Originally Posted by RickySteve View Post
    Take two random 65-year-old women and give them each $400,000. The CEO of Goldman Sachs will teach one to gamble in financial markets and I will teach the other to invest in sports markets. My sexy protegee is a huge favorite to have more money over any time horizon.
    No argument here.

    So just to reiterate my point, how many investors with 400k + rolls are investing in Wall Street, and how many are investing in sports?

    I never said which was a higher likelihood of profit, just made the point that the majority of disciplined investors with money management skills are drawn to the Wall Street/ Chicago Mercantile world. The world of sports betting is largely comprised of degenerates and action junkies who even if they posses the skills for picking 55% winners lack the money management skills. Hence, the personality type of good money managers are usually never drawn to that "world" to begin with.

    And the CEO of Goldman Sachs could care less about the return by the 65 year old woman because he's going to make a lot off of her regardless of her return or loss. Goldman Sachs are some of the slimiest thieves ever to walk the earth. They're set up to make money no matter how their picks fare.

  21. #21
    caveira
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    Well, like an arber, i need to say that i have a very big negative record there (something like -60k) over the past 4 years. And talking to some friends arbers, absolute 100% has negative record there too, what's, by the way, the only reason arbers are welcome at pinnacle, they are very fast to adjust their odds and you will hit the weakers books in the long run.

  22. #22
    lukahh
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    Quote Originally Posted by Stocks View Post
    I've heard from a few arb guys who are big winners overall but are down pretty big at Pinnacle which seems to be the norm.
    makes sense. they can win because other books offer prices out of market, and pinny offers them as market
    minus fee.

    obviously, arbers would be better off long term not hedging their bets at pinny.

  23. #23
    thechaoz
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    Would love to have an account there, still check them for lines

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  24. #24
    grantingyou
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Landers View Post
    i had a winning record till Pinnacle kicked americans to the curb
    This is the Post of the Year. You don't have a winning record playing "go fish" with 5 year olds.

    You are horrible.

  25. #25
    rowand13
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    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post
    I hear so many people saying Pinnacle vs other books weakers lines is slightly profitable over time
    Slightly profitable? Rather, it is more than extremely profitable. How do you think Pinnacle makes their money? Simply they sell you tickets with prices at +102, +105, +115, etc. knowing that other shops have these prices at -105, or -110 and they sell lots of these tickets to arbs. On the other hand, they don't sell much of the -121, -125, etc. priced tickets because other shops will have those at a much better prices. On most cases the -121, -125 will be the winning side and pinnacle knows it. This way they are sure that 90% of their tickets will be losers. They have thier strategy in shaping up the lines depending on their sharps' action and other factors, so that they can give you the worst odds on the side that is most likely going to cover.

    When I first had a Pinnacle account about 7 years ago, their +105 and +112, etc. style pricing has attracted me, so I went on a very bad losing streak in the matter of 3 or 4 days. While checking my wagering history after losing my big balance there, it came to my observation that most if not all of my losing wagers had prices of +103 or +105 or above. And I am talking about a big number of at least 80 wagers in just a few days. That tells you all how they make their money. They are not absolute traders and it is not only the big volume that they have as some of you might think, but rather they would offer you a very good price on the side that would most likely lose. The better the price they give you, the more confident they are it is the losing side. This happens several times everyday, especially with fast moving basketball halves lines. I see it everyday. In most cases, you will see the game even decided in the first few minutes.

    It happens to me several times each and every day. Everyday I try to lose my balance at the lower rated book (the book with slower line movement) and win at the A rated book. And the result is that my balance at the lower rated book keeps grwoing pretty fast. It increases by several thousands eveyday. It increases terribly fast to the extent that I am losing 99% of my wagers at the A rated book in games that are decided easily in the first few minutes. Even plays on big underdogs have hit easily and never trailed the game at the lower rated book. Note that I am talking about games in which pinnacle and other A rated books will insist to give you an extremely good price compared to other books.

    Every time I decide to stop doing this, I tell myself that I should try to lose some balance at the lower rated book which never ever happen. I swear to you that I could have made a ton of money had I not touched my A rated book account and kept playing at the lower rated shop only without hedging. Guys, I have had enough losses in my life that I don't even gamble anymore, because I also think that gambling in itself is the farthest thing ever from all the good values in our life. Now, my balance at the lower rated book is still not scarly big and they've always paid me in the past. But it is big enough to get me very worried. I was thinking that I should stop throwing good money after bad and start withdrawing my balance slowly. I would appreciate anyone's good advice.
    Last edited by rowand13; 03-25-12 at 05:28 AM.

  26. #26
    Monte
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    Quote Originally Posted by rowand13 View Post
    This way they are sure that 90% of their tickets will be losers.
    I hope you are joking, at least me wouldn't be here anymore but on some sunny island...

  27. #27
    rowand13
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    Quote Originally Posted by Monte View Post
    I hope you are joking, at least me wouldn't be here anymore but on some sunny island...
    What I meant was that if you only bet the side that pinnacle or similar A+ rated shops would offer you the worst price for, knowing where other bookmakers at, and persisting to still contrast the market. Then you will win 80% or 90% of your wagers. Please, note that I am talking here only about those lines where pinnacle offers you odds of may be -103 or -104 where they know that most other shops have these lines at +110 or +115 or if pinnacle offers you -122 or -125 knowing that most other markets will have it at may be -105. That's where you should only take the +115 or the -105 at the other shops. If you do this, you will extremely profit on the long run betting those lines and those lines ONLY.

    Also to clarify, if you see Pinny have (lets say the Over on an NBA game at -111 and the Under at +101) then that alone doesn't give you an extra edge betting the Over at -110 at other shops. But you watch only for games that other shops will (let's say have the Over on the previous example at +100) and here only you should take the over. Ofcourse, that doesn't mean you will always profit following this theory, but I think that you would likely win more than 80% of those plays. If you still doubt it, please look at some previous arbs. replies and how are they down big, life time, hundreds of thousands at Pinny. Pinny offers these odds knowing that arbs. will be all over these lines when they see the big price difference at other shops and they more than welcome their action.

    On my personal experience, I also see no explanation that I always deposit at the A rated book and never cash out while never deposit at the lower rated book and only cash out, if this theory was not true. I am very frustrated to see my balance keeps growing everyday at the lower rated book and be always at zero at the A rated books. In fact it is almost impossible to lose a wager at these low rated books. It is more difficult losing a wager at these books than winning a wager at an A rated book. The history I had speaks for itself. The winning run I had at the lower rated book by doing this, has reached (13) and (14) straight wins on two recent occasions with only 1 loss and 1 push. A streak that a real handicapper may never have been able to achieve if he tried to. Obviously, this is happening for a reason....
    Last edited by rowand13; 03-26-12 at 05:11 AM.
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  28. #28
    jjgold
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    Good stuff Rowand

    They seem to do a lot of volume too

    I wonder if those Pinny Leans apply to soccer also?

  29. #29
    nick86
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    rowand, how much money have you made with arbitrage?

  30. #30
    Ruifgalmeida
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    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post
    Good stuff Rowand

    They seem to do a lot of volume too

    I wonder if those Pinny Leans apply to soccer also?
    I am a recreational player and always fund pinny soccer lines beatable.
    Easy money No, but they can be beat if you know the market well

  31. #31
    Monte
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    Was just saying your 90% number is silly
    Try 55%

  32. #32
    wantitall4moi
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    same shit 10 years later....

  33. #33
    jjgold
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    Some say SBOBET has sharper soccer lines than Pinnacle

    Heavy action and they moves lines alot like Pinny meaning juice

  34. #34
    wrongturn
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    I think rowand has found the holy grail. I am debating which island to buy in two years. Any ideas?

  35. #35
    dj_destroyer
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    I'd rather take high juice and weak lines over Pinny any day... but the fact of the matter is that we're living in a time where no money is safe offshore. I like their high limits, high volume, high liquidity, and best of all, I like to know that my money is safe as it can be.

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