[PR9]

It was disturbing how Oregon played D in their last matchup by allowing anyone to have open shots from anywhere. However I read a compelling argument from a successful ncaa capper on another forum,, and I'm just posting it here for those who only stick to sbr and don't check around... and also to bring up discussion from both sides. (i have not made a play on this as of yet)

Oregon @ Washington Under 155...
I knew I would be on this the moment Oregon closed out Iowa in the highest-scoring game of the postseason. It was just a matter of getting a number north of 150, which is clearly the case here. Three important reasons behind this play:

A) Familiarity- These postseason tournaments (NIT/CBI/CIT) have produced a very high number of overs. Main reason is that teams are unfamiliar with one another and typically do not have ample time to prepare for the other team's schemes. Jimmy Dykes made an interesting point during last night's MTSU/Tennessee game when he said that "out-of-bounds" plays work at an extraordinarily high rate in these tournaments because coaches are unable to cover everything in their pre-game scouting work.
Also, the defensive intensity tends to be lower than during conference games and conference tournaments as many teams are simply not at the same level of focus after five consecutive months of basketball.

But this is the opposite of what we have tonight with Oregon facing Washington. They played twice during the regular season with each team dominating on the home floor. There are no secrets, everything is well-scouted, and the defensive intensity will be rather high considering the rivalry and a trip to MSG on the line. We're also getting terrific line value as people are starting to notice how successful "overs" have been during this postseason and with Oregon coming off of a ridiculous shootout against Iowa.

B) Washington defends at home- UDub has a well-earned reputation for grossly underachieving on the defensive end, especially given the caliber of athlete they tend to recruit. But at home this season, the Huskies are actually showing some interest in stopping opponents. Against Northwestern a few days ago, they held an extremely efficient offense to 18/51 shooting and 5/23 from deep. Pretty impressive, especially considering they hadn't seen a scheme like it all season. When Washington wants to defend, they are a very difficult team to score on, especially with a healthy N'Diaye patrolling the paint.

C) Oregon has shooting issues on the road - Scoring isn't an issue at home for the Duckies. Last 8 home games have produced the following: 108, 96, 94, 90, 78, 82, 71, 75. Crazy efficient amidst the trees in Eugene. On the road is a whole different story. Those sharpshooters cannot seem to find the same consistency in unfriendly venues. It carries over to the free throw line, too. 72% at home, 66% on the road. The Washington defensive scheme also seems to cause issues. In the last three meetings away from Eugene, here's what Oregon has done against the UDub defense: 60, 51, 69. Not good.

[Ardbeg]

I was leaning to taking the over, but after the write up, I don't know.. Both teams don't like each other so I can see them playing actual defense.

[bobby heenan]

sold

[CarpeDime]

awesome writeup

[AdamStock1983]

My thoughts.

I think the Over is by no means a lock but I like it more than the Under. It is at 154.5 now. I know it took Under money from the opening but I disagree with the move. Do these teams really wanna beat each other that bad? It is the postseason NIT, not the heart of the PAC-12 schedule. Teams always want to win but look at the amount of defense that has been played in post season tournaments. Northwestern was severely out matched athletically. That will not be the case tonight. I guess when push comes to shove do you think either Oregon or Washington are going to be committed to playing defense. I can't see it. Looks like a run and gun game to me where even if they shoot a poor percentage the volume of shots should get them up and Over the total

You have to take the NW game with a grain of salt. They sleepwalked through the first half then got hot from 3. UW had a huge advantage athletically at all 5 positions. NW also could not hit open 3s to save their life. UW can play sloppy and very disinterested at times. They turn their effort on and off because they know they can. Not sure that is going to be the case tonight.

[Speedy88]

Nice write up. I like the under as well, but I'm going to pass on it. I've been follwoing UW closely since they got left out of the NCAA tournament, and they are playing with a chip on their shoulder right now.

I don't like either side of the spread, but I feel good about WASH ML. It should be a safe option to tease down to -1 or too take the ML.

When Washington chooses to show up, they can beat nearly any team in the nation. Not too many teams have two guys who are projected as first round picks in next years NBA draft.

[PR9]

Nropp has a 5 star play on WASH tonight. He has been ridiculously hot with his 5 star plays in these tournaments over the past 3 weeks. I know because I've tailed them. He says he'd bet Washington up to -7.5

http://twitter.com/#!/nropp

[bobby heenan]

Nice write up. I like the under as well, but I'm going to pass on it. I've been follwoing UW closely since they got left out of the NCAA tournament, and they are playing with a chip on their shoulder right now.

I don't like either side of the spread, but I feel good about WASH ML. It should be a safe option to tease down to -1 or too take the ML.

When Washington chooses to show up, they can beat nearly any team in the nation. Not too many teams have two guys who are projected as first round picks in next years NBA draft.

its true...they gave marquette a heck of a game early in the year at MSG...coulda won it....think they were catching like 7 or 8

[Speedy88]

Nropp has a 5 star play on WASH tonight. He has been ridiculously hot with his 5 star plays in these tournaments over the past 3 weeks. I know because I've tailed them. He says he'd bet Washington up to -7.5

http://twitter.com/#!/nropp

Ok I'm on it. I'm telling you, when Washington is ON, they have a shot to beat probably any team not named Kentucky. If Wroten and Ross bring there A-game, good night Oregon.

EDIT: Also to defend Washington's huge loss in Oregon, the team arrived to the arena about 30 minutes before tip off due to traffic complications (yes you heard that right, traffic in Eugene, OR). Not saying that showing up 45 mins before tips off makes it okay to lose by 25 points, but it makes the Washington loss in Oregon much more understandable.

[bobby heenan]

this game is going over easy...no d

[SASH]

oregon and washington games always go over. BOL

[jerseydave77]

Took Oregon over 75 - I'm loving the lack of defense.

[PR9]

yeah the lack of defense in these other tourneys is just hilarious


street ball


of my 3 o/u plays in ncaa tonight it looks like the only one that will hit is the Drexel 2nd Half u76

[jerseydave77]

What sane kid is going to take a charge or hard foul for the CBI or CIT title? That trophy goes in the back of the closet behind your pee wee league participant medal. These games are fun to watch as shootouts, nothing more.

[Inkwell77]

This lack of defense is hard to watch sometimes.

[Speedy88]

Absolutely no defense. Romar has to go. Great recruiter, great at developing players into NBA talent, but this guy can't coach X's and O's worth sh*t.

[AdamStock1983]

People who were on the under were getting way to cute