1. 03-13-12 03:56 AM #1
    Jayvegas420
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    Mississippi Valley vs. WKY

    I am unfortunately fading Louisvillekid1 & Frisco on this one.
    I can't take a team that started out the season 2-8.
    Then a week later they go 1 for 9.
    I haven't even heard of some of the high schools they lost to. ( I suppose this could be said for MVS)
    Mississippi Valley finished the season 20-1.
    I realize these are two completely different conferences but when you get 2 bad teams like these I think momentum counts for a lot, what else is there to go by?
    If I am missing something here please post away unabashed.
    But the Delta Devils are my play here. I guess I'll take the 5 points here cause, who really knows whats gonna happen?
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  2. 03-13-12 06:12 AM #2
    BernardMadoff
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    Wku has momentum also.
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  3. 03-13-12 07:38 AM #3
    dartmouthemcee
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    I think you roll with the points here too, MVSU knows what it takes to win close games that mean a lot (their 2pt win to take the SWAC tourney). The press and the public like WKY right now and no one is talking about the magnificent year the Devils had almost sweeping their conference! The only team they lost to, they promptly beat 2 games later (went 2-1 vs ARPB)

    First game, so we all know everyone has a play on this one. I will go with the 5 pts and take MVSU
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  4. 03-13-12 07:56 AM #4
    stuck621
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    MVSU just needs to get 6 men out on the court to win just like Louisiana-Lafayette did when they beat WKU
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  5. 03-13-12 08:16 AM #5
    jjesco425
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    yes mvs had tough out of conference record... which they got crushed in ... then they nearly swept there confrence, but who exactly did they beat?.... wk comes from a much tougher conference.... put it simply even with likes of unc, wisc, nd, fla and iowa state on there schedule mvs is still ranked over 300 in s.o.s due to an extremely weak confrence.... now obviously numbers dont lay the game but ill lay the pts and take the 15-18 team who has played a tougher schedule

    and jay i like you man but give these guys there do... yeah there not the unc or duke type caliber but we all cant be, but they made the tourney so there not a bad team just a team with limited resources
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  6. 03-13-12 08:39 AM #6
    TheeArchBishop
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    JJESCO - exactly

    WKY SOS (Strength of Schedule): 187 with RPI of 133
    MVU SOS (Strength of Schedule: 310 with RPI of 144

    The SOS alone is a huge differential and when looking at that in conjunction with the point spread being pretty low when you consider this, WKY looks like the play. Still not sure what I'm doing yet...maybe a ML parlay with WKY and someone else.
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  7. 03-13-12 09:12 AM #7
    No coincidences
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    I saw MVSU almost come back from a 20-point deficit at Iowa State. Granted it was just one game, but they have the players.
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  8. 03-13-12 09:20 AM #8
    BiffTFinancial
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    lean Western Kentucky. in their lined games, MVSU routinely underachieved relative to expectations (2-6 or 1-7 ATS depending upon the book).
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  9. 03-13-12 09:26 AM #9
    Jayvegas420
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    I see that MSV doesnt perform well against the spread.
    I might need to buy a few points now that you guys have pointed this out.
    This wasnt a lock by any means but I still think WKY has problems, although this wasnt the case when they made thier run a few years ago.
    Anyone know when their best Tourney performance was, I was in Syracuse that year....2008? 2010?
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  10. 03-13-12 02:09 PM #10
    jjesco425
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    throw out mvs ats results to small a sample to matter.... straight up wk under achieved this year and had big time coaching issues in beginning of season once this was fixed they ended season on hot streak beating quality teams in denver north texas and mid tenn... what are mvs' quality wins texas southern lol ... yes mvs can always win but i believe smart money is on the tested team
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  11. 03-13-12 02:26 PM #11
    BiffTFinancial
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    Quote Originally Posted by jjesco425 View Post
    throw out mvs ats results to small a sample to matter.... straight up wk under achieved this year and had big time coaching issues in beginning of season once this was fixed they ended season on hot streak beating quality teams in denver north texas and mid tenn... what are mvs' quality wins texas southern lol ... yes mvs can always win but i believe smart money is on the tested team
    i have to disagree somewhat with your first sentence. even if a team has played 35 games ATS, that's still arguably an inappropriately small sample size in a statistical sense. my point is that MVSU rarely plays lined games, and when they did, the books/public routinely overestimated them. your response, i'd assume, is that past performances don't necessarily apply to future results, and i can't say that you'd be wrong - and if anything, the fishy line movement makes me apprehensive that your position might be better than mine in this case. personally, i would love to play WKU -2' (where it is right now) because my numbers say that they win by 6-8, but the line movement is fishy so i likely will pass.
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  12. 03-13-12 02:51 PM #12
    jjesco425
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    Quote Originally Posted by BiffTFinancial View Post
    i have to disagree somewhat with your first sentence. even if a team has played 35 games ATS, that's still arguably an inappropriately small sample size in a statistical sense. my point is that MVSU rarely plays lined games, and when they did, the books/public routinely overestimated them. your response, i'd assume, is that past performances don't necessarily apply to future results, and i can't say that you'd be wrong - and if anything, the fishy line movement makes me apprehensive that your position might be better than mine in this case. personally, i would love to play WKU -2' (where it is right now) because my numbers say that they win by 6-8, but the line movement is fishy so i likely will pass.
    my main reason for throwing out ats results is the desparody in them... plus 20's non conference then basically non conference where play is deff different and this is ncaa tourny i tend to toss out ats anyway... whether they covered 20 last week means less when its 1 and done... most likely you are getting a teams best effort .... so i prefer to use hard numbers
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  13. 03-13-12 02:54 PM #13
    LordCC
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    I heard the following on CBS College Sportsnetwork's bracket show on Sunday night:

    Take into account that Mississippi Valley commits the most fouls in the NCAA. Who makes the most I free throws? Western Kentucky, and we know how much free throws play a part in these games.
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  14. 03-13-12 03:24 PM #14
    ebbearsfb1
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    To counter your comment coin slot... msvu was up 20 points to texas southern and almost lost.. so it can go both ways.. also... texas southern scored 52 on them inb the 2nd half... lordcc wku took the most free throws this year?
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  15. 03-13-12 03:35 PM #15
    Frisco
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    If you've watched both teams play it is obvious that WKY is a much better team. Their conf tourney run was one of the most impressive i've ever seen. Fade if you like but i'll take the more talented team that is playing with momentum
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  16. 03-13-12 03:36 PM #16
    jjesco425
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    the line is fishey almost even betting yet its dropped... hmmmmmmm
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  17. 03-13-12 03:57 PM #17
    TheLock
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    On MVS +3 -103 hugh
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  18. 03-13-12 04:03 PM #18
    Ghenghis Kahn
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    western kentucky is a different team with a new coaching staff. i've watched mississippi valley state play georgia southern and this conference is all about bunch of athletic black kids that don't have discipline. with 3s available now, it's gotta be western k or pass...
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  19. 03-13-12 04:06 PM #19
    ebbearsfb1
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    For the people on msvs... have you ever seen them play this year? Or ru just betting them cause of their record
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  20. 03-13-12 04:10 PM #20
    kidcudi92
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    everyone on WKY = MSVS?????

    well i mean not everyyyyyyone...but a lot
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  21. 03-13-12 04:15 PM #21
    TheLock
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    Quote Originally Posted by ebbearsfb1 View Post
    For the people on msvs... have you ever seen them play this year? Or ru just betting them cause of their record
    Couldn't name a single guy on the team nor have I watched them.

    Have 2% of my roll on them though. 1% on ML.
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  22. 03-13-12 04:20 PM #22
    tsrudm
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    Anyone remember last year in the First Four when UT-SA absolutely beat up on a team from the SWAC? It was brutally ugly. I know its a different year, different game, but man the SWAC was exposed there. Can't help but thinkit happens again tonight.
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  23. 03-13-12 04:28 PM #23
    sportsguy04
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    Wky is the better team. The swac may be the worst conference in the country.
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  24. 03-13-12 04:33 PM #24
    ebbearsfb1
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    line back up to 3.5 and -160(reduced)
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  25. 03-13-12 07:34 PM #25
    TheLock
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheLock View Post
    Couldn't name a single guy on the team nor have I watched them.

    Have 2% of my roll on them though. 1% on ML.

    ML common one time
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  26. 03-13-12 07:43 PM #26
    seaborneq
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    If there is a worse team in the tournament than wky then the autobids need to be abolished.
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  27. 03-13-12 07:43 PM #27
    ebbearsfb1
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    Quote Originally Posted by LordCC View Post
    I heard the following on CBS College Sportsnetwork's bracket show on Sunday night:

    Take into account that Mississippi Valley commits the most fouls in the NCAA. Who makes the most I free throws? Western Kentucky, and we know how much free throws play a part in these games.
    Did you make these stats up? Wku is awful at the line 13 out of 21 so far...
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  28. 03-13-12 07:56 PM #28
    MUHerd37
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    This shit is nuts boys!
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  29. 03-13-12 07:57 PM #29
    TheLock
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    What a ridiculously bad 4
    minutes of basketball for MVS supporters.
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  30. 03-13-12 07:59 PM #30
    kidcudi92
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    this game is so ugly. thank god i went + instead of ml
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  31. 03-13-12 08:00 PM #31
    mynameismud
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    Quote Originally Posted by MUHerd37 View Post
    This shit is nuts boys!
    this is the craziest shit ive seen in a while
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  32. 03-13-12 08:07 PM #32
    Ardbeg
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    Wow.. wide open 3 to tie and he airballs it..
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  33. 03-13-12 08:08 PM #33
    kidcudi92
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    BOOM. easiest bet of my lifetime, no sweat.


    just buckets......
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  34. 03-13-12 08:13 PM #34
    TheLock
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheLock View Post

    Have 2% of my roll on them though. 1% on ML.
    I got hosed on the ML but I'll take it.
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  35. 03-13-12 08:14 PM #35
    Ghenghis Kahn
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    two bad teams going at it. these kids will get overwhelmed by kentucky.
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