How do they handle this? I am a real idiot when it comes to knowing the business side of this industry so would appreciate it if someone could explain.
Does a bookie have to balance both sides perfectly? How is that even possible?
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02-18-12 01:29 PM #1
What happens if a book only has action on one side?
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02-18-12 01:30 PM #2I'd never gamble again for Taylor Swift
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They will juice the side they have too much action on to entice action on the other side.
Originally Posted by LordVodka
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02-18-12 01:53 PM #3
If they get a ton of action on one side late they have to sit there and sweat like the rest of us
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02-18-12 02:18 PM #4
they will lay off the action by betting the other side @ a different book...
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02-18-12 02:36 PM #5
they pay the mob to threaten the favored sides kids
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02-18-12 03:15 PM #6
Lay it off at another book
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02-18-12 03:38 PM #7
They will void winning side with some funny explanation
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02-18-12 04:28 PM #8
They usually send it over to an exchange I believe
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02-18-12 04:29 PM #9
Do you think this happens often or is it rare for them to have this happen?
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02-18-12 04:32 PM #10
Books are gambling on a side in probably more than half of games. Of course they often get great odds to do so, considering the juice. Bettors might bet $66/60k on A and $44/40 on B. Well, they would lose 16k if A wins, but win 26 if B wins. Not bad to wager $16k to win $26 on a regular spread. The power of juice.
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02-18-12 05:03 PM #11
When a big money line hits do they lose money? This week Wizards ML hit and it was +1440.
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02-18-12 05:22 PM #12
No, they probably rake. Very few people bet the huge dog ML's. Lots of people toss the big faves into multi-team parlays. Originally Posted by LordVodka
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02-18-12 05:36 PM #13
The Wizards ML was +2200 at Betmaker and other exchanges.
Sportsbooks juice the big moneylines so heavily (i.e. Portland -2500, Washington +1400).
IN games like this, the large bets go on the big favorites with the smaller ones going on the big dogs.
The books let the number of games and the vig work in their favor. For sure, there will be individual games where the books get absolutely crushed on and they might have really bad days. However, as the days turn to weeks and the weeks turn to months, the well run books only see green.
Your best chance of consistent profits is placing your bets at the best possible number getting the best possible odds and you're far more likely to find this at an exchange.
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02-18-12 05:51 PM #14
Yeah, Betmaker had the Wizards at +2200 but how much liquidity was available?
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02-18-12 06:49 PM #15
books can't simply layoff material amounts at other books people here are clueless
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02-18-12 07:21 PM #16
Originally Posted by andywend
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02-18-12 07:52 PM #17
Originally Posted by andywend
massive fail as usual.
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02-18-12 07:57 PM #18
What happens if a book only has action on one side?
Doubt it has ever happened .
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02-18-12 07:57 PM #19
When has this ever happened!?!?!
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02-18-12 08:04 PM #20
I know it's impossible for it to happen just a question.
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02-18-12 08:06 PM #21
I thought you meant lop sided action, i.e. double the amount of action on one side. Not literally action only on one side.. Originally Posted by LordVodka
not a stupid question.
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02-18-12 08:12 PM #22
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02-18-12 09:57 PM #23
Sure, lopsided action happens. It is layed off and I beg to differ... these larger solid operators can lay off sizeable amounts. It is not like they have to post it up or anything... basically credit accounts and they got anywhere from 30 to 90 days probably to settle. When you start thinking at this level it would help you to better understand if you think of exchanges. These guys are also experts at this and generally do not have to worry about owing and having to settle huge amounts in direct relation to overall shop operating numbers. figure they can basically come out even at the end of ninety days and protect the house at the same time and still pocket the vig. Business as usual and relative means that if they end up owing 1 or 2 hundred at the end of the day it is really nothing with the volume they are doing.
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02-18-12 10:08 PM #24
they would move the line because all of the sharp bettors are on that side.
the books don't care what side the public is on in a single game.
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02-18-12 11:01 PM #25
antifoil... well said. Most services do keep quite a few wiseguys on their sheets and not try to run them off. They wont give them a bonus or anything and also reduce the limits. The reduced limits are nothing crazy either, few hundreds bucks... with maybe a nickel max. Why do they do this you ask, they will move house lines off a true profiled wiseguy, the information they get off of his action is invaluable. So they always have at least 5 to 10 of these customers, at least at any established professional service. So they set their lines by taking a consensus of Don Best and or Sports Options or similar. Then they will check the big houses like Pinnacle and a few of the others. Once the line is set then the linemovers keep an eye on market and house action, but what most people dont know is that they keep these wiseguy accounts available checking open bets. If three or more of these guys start to get down on something they will cross reference against market and then move with the sharp action early on. Soon after they will be heavily motivated to fill the wheel as best they can but they absolutely do not want the house to be on the losing side with weight. Figure, once the weight differential exceeds 5% of total daily volume then they will arrange to lay off the differential. Why do I say 5%, well... figure most juice is 10% unless at reduced shop. I would guess that they could not stand more exposure than half of full juice... for an operation being run like a corporation. Also, take into account this scenario addresss only one line, figure in multiples or big day it actually might be more like 2%.
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02-18-12 11:42 PM #26
when books are loaded up on side....
-they don't layoff (people who say this don't know)
-they sweat like the rest of us (people who say this DO know)
.............and then they prob win 60-65% of the time assuming sucker action
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02-19-12 12:28 AM #27
I aprreciate your post frogger... the fact is a book is abook is a book... whether it has 10 players or 10k players. 98% of all books/bookies have probably less than a 100 guys and they absolutley lay off. Larger services rarely get into a situation like this because of veteran and highly skilled linesman and yes when they do they sweat, because you are right. Larger operations dont lay off, they just take it in the teeth, again this is rare because total house action can balance out the days volume and one line generally cant effect total volume. Something exceptional has to be on the board and Superbowl is a good example, not much else going on and everyone in the world has action on it. This year NY (line) were heavy favorites going in and had alot of sheets were way off until late action on the Patriots poured in and evened things out alot at many places. But still, alot of services were slightly in the red on that game and day overall.
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02-19-12 02:07 AM #28
Would love to know the true answer to a book laying off action. I'm pretty sure that guy RickySteve on here claims that books in Vegas lay off action sometimes. Will probably never know.
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02-19-12 06:45 AM #29
Depends on book and bankroll really
Some gamble, some balance books with other books and some juice
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02-19-12 06:47 AM #30
Originally Posted by Inkwell77
I asked on of my locals that question .
His reply was for one game he would lay some off , 2 or 3 games lopsided he would let it ride.
He was not in it for the juice.
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02-19-12 08:31 AM #31
if new england is playing giants they minupulate the line so action evens out if they want to get it perfect the office takes it and gives it to new york so all you have is the profit on the juice. In reality most books will let the action flow normally , then they become nothing but gamblers ,too.
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02-19-12 10:42 AM #32
The whole thing about laying off is a misconception, and I would guess that only the smaller/less financially secure books would lay off any action - and the reason is simple if you think about it.
In this world of "Market Prices" where virtually all books are around a similar line - if one book gets heavily lopsided action on one particular side...then the majority of books would also likely get lopsided action on this one particular side. So if books layoff as much as everyone thinks, then in a game with a stong public opinion/heavy action, then if would end up like a pyramid in the end, eg:
10 books lay off Team A to Book 1 -all of a sudden Book 1 end up with a lopsided decision so lays off with Book 2 and same thing happens - so if everyone was laying off then you would basically end up with all but the biggest books in the world having nothing but lopsided action from everyone laying off up the line to them.
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02-19-12 11:17 AM #33
Also dont forget that the line on these popular games is often shaded to account for the high popularity of one side - so just because books are getting the majority of action on Team A at a line of -6 then it doesnt mean that -6 is in fact the "true" line for the game.
This "true" line could be -4, but the books have opened at -6 because they believe that at that price they will still take more action on that team, which gives them a theoretical advantage of 2 points from which to make these lop-sided decisions turn out in their favour over the long run.
Of course books till still try to get some sort of a balanced action at this -6 by adjusting the line accordingly, but more often than not they have already factored in the public expectation on this game so that lopsided action on these games still turns out in their favour more over the long run.
It will still cost them in the short term and every book will know what it is like to have a losing game, a losing day, a losing week, and in rare cases even a losing month...but over the long term any bookmaker (who knows what they are doing) make these lopsided decisions count in their favour more than against them.
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