[DudleyDawson]

[DudleyDawson]

75% on clippers, probably 85% by gametime and line will be clippers -1 or pk

[E in AZ]

Sometimes the square bet wins.

[smoke a bowl]

Simple question, what should the line be if Aldridge was playing in this back to back to back tonight?

[apurvaas]

5 Units on port +2! If line goes to 2.5 or close at 3, I ll put 3 more on >+2

I see them winning by 3 even if its b2b2b... portland a diff team at home (except loss to lowly wizz)

[pro-style]

What do you think the right line is with Aldridge in the lineup?

Well let see here.

These are home lines.

Portland +1 vs OKC
Portland -6.5 vs Denver
Portland -15 vs Washingtion
Portland -15 vs Bobcats
Portland -7.5 vs Houston
Portland -9.5 vs Suns

Well the Clippers are not better than OKC and they are not THAT much better than Denver so I would say around -3.5 to -4.

The Clippers were +2 vs OKC at home so Portland and LAC are very close in terms of what they get for lines.

Add in home court advantage and you get anywhere between -3 and -4.

Is Aldridge really worth 5-6 points? Many people will say yes, but they are wrong.


EDIT: I actually know how much Aldridge is truely worth with over 95% confidence at a +/- 0.5 range. This is just an easier way to prove my point. FWIW he is worth about ~3 points.

This line should be a PK, so it is off by about 5%.

[E in AZ]

Portland has lost their last 3 home games, so really not much home field there. They don't win back to back games. They have lost 4 out of 6. This team isn't that good with or without Aldridge.

I know the Clippers aren't the greatest team either, but you are all making this "sharp" play on Portland because there are only 3 games tonight and you think you are smart. You aren't. Portland will give you an ulcer tonight.

[smoke a bowl]

Well let see here.

These are home lines.

Portland +1 vs OKC
Portland -6.5 vs Denver
Portland -15 vs Washingtion
Portland -15 vs Bobcats
Portland -7.5 vs Houston
Portland -9.5 vs Suns

Well the Clippers are not better than OKC and they are not THAT much better than Denver so I would say around -3.5 to -4.

The Clippers were +2 vs OKC at home so Portland and LAC are very close in terms of what they get for lines.

Add in home court advantage and you get anywhere between -3 and -4.

Is Aldridge really worth 5-6 points? Many people will say yes, but you are wrong.

The fact that you are calling the difference between-3 and +2 is wrong. The difference between -2 and -7 (a real 5 pts) is way more than the difference between -3 and +2 for 2 reasons. 1st is the 0 don't fukin exist. A game can't end tied so there goes that pt. Then when you factor in that the 1 is the least valuable point in the nba (for the soft-minded this means games land on 1 less than any other #) and we are crossing two different 1's in this scenario (again for the less bright +1 and -1 being the two different 1's). Long story short is the difference between -7 and -2, -8 and -3, -9 and -4, etc is 5 full points. However the difference between -3 and +2,-2.5 and +2.5, -1.5 and +3.5, etc is not even close to 5 full points because in those 5 pts are 1 that doesn't exist (0) and 2 others that are very weak (the two 1,s). Therefore I think Eldridge is worth the difference between -3 and +2 in any given game though I don't think he is worth the difference between -2 and -7.

[pro-style]

Portland has lost their last 3 home games, so really not much home field there. They don't win back to back games. They have lost 4 out of 6. This team isn't that good with or without Aldridge.

I know the Clippers aren't the greatest team either, but you are all making this "sharp" play on Portland because there are only 3 games tonight and you think you are smart. You aren't. Portland will give you an ulcer tonight.

Lets just put all our stock into < 7 game sample sizes. SMART IDEA. Do you even realize how insignificant a sample size of that size is??

Gross overreactions to these small samples is where value is found in betting in the NBA. Anyone telling you different doesn't win. PERIOD.

[smoke a bowl]

Lets just put all our stock into < 7 game sample sizes. SMART IDEA. Do you even realize how insignificant a sample size of that size is??

Gross overreactions to these small samples is where value is found in betting in the NBA. Anyone telling you different doesn't win. PERIOD.

Agree.

[E in AZ]

Why do I all of a sudden feel like smoking a bowl?

[pro-style]

The fact that you are calling the difference between-3 and +2 is wrong. The difference between -2 and -7 (a real 5 pts) is way more than the difference between -3 and +2 for 2 reasons. 1st is the 0 don't fukin exist. A game can't end tied so there goes that pt. Then when you factor in that the 1 is the least valuable point in the nba (for the soft-minded this means games land on 1 less than any other #) and we are crossing two different 1's in this scenario (again for the less bright +1 and -1 being the two different 1's). Long story short is the difference between -7 and -2, -8 and -3, -9 and -4, etc is 5 full points. However the difference between -3 and +2,-2.5 and +2.5, -1.5 and +3.5, etc is not even close to 5 full points because in those 5 pts are 1 that doesn't exist (0) and 2 others that are very weak (the two 1,s). Therefore I think Eldridge is worth the difference between -3 and +2 in any given game though I don't think he is worth the difference between -2 and -7.

Do you realize the flaw in your reasoning here?

When a game is capped at a ATS margin around -2 the points around that range are more valuable then points farther from that range. It's a linear regression as you move away from the most likely outcome (which in theory would be the line of the spread). So if the game is truly a PK then the points around a PK are more valuable than normal.

4 point games occur only 28% more often than 1 point games and that is not even including any analysis around what the average spread is.

-3.3 is the average spread so of course the points closer to that range will seem like they are more valuable using your reasoning becuase games are more likely to be around that area.

Also, 0 does exist. It is overtime. If a game goes to overtime the home team has an advantage of about 0.3 points historically.

[smoke a bowl]

Do you realize the flaw in your reasoning here?

When a game is capped at a ATS margin around -2 the points around that range are more valuable then points farther from that range. It's a linear regression as you move away from the most likely outcome (which in theory would be the line of the spread). So if the game is truly a PK then the points around a PK are more valuable than normal.

4 point games occur only 28% more often than 1 point games and that is not even including any analysis around what the average spread is.

-3.3 is the average spread so of course the points closer to that range will seem like they are more valuable using your reasoning becuase games are more likely to be around that area.

I don't even know where to begin if you don't realize that the 0 doesn't exist and that the 1's are the weakest # in a vacuum in the NBA. So do you really think a move from -3 to +2 is as significant/big as a move from -3 to -8?

[rdkjglsk]

yes we know. Clippers are free money tonight, we need everyone on them 100% of the public. New ray-bans for the outfield!

[smoke a bowl]

Do you realize the flaw in your reasoning here?

When a game is capped at a ATS margin around -2 the points around that range are more valuable then points farther from that range. It's a linear regression as you move away from the most likely outcome (which in theory would be the line of the spread). So if the game is truly a PK then the points around a PK are more valuable than normal.

4 point games occur only 28% more often than 1 point games and that is not even including any analysis around what the average spread is.

-3.3 is the average spread so of course the points closer to that range will seem like they are more valuable using your reasoning becuase games are more likely to be around that area.

Also, 0 does exist. It is overtime. If a game goes to overtime the home team has an advantage of about 0.3 points historically.

Well let's take all game's lined at -2 and you win every time the game lands on 1 and I win every time the game lands on 7 (much farther from the pointspread of 2 than 1 is). Who do you think is gonna get the chedder?

[pro-style]

I don't even know where to begin if you don't realize that the 0 doesn't exist and that the 1's are the weakest # in a vacuum in the NBA. So do you really think a move from -3 to +2 is as significant/big as a move from -3 to -8?

What I am saying is that if you just look at the games and go, "the margin of 1 in a game occurs less than the margin of 4 in a game, because there have been 1200 games that have ended in 4 and only 800 that have ended in 1, therefore 4 is worth more than 1" is a flawed statement.

If the game were -10 which is more valuable? They are closer to be worth about the same.

Since the average NBA spread is -3.3, you can assume that the point values of 4 and 3 are going to be worth the most because that is were most games land because it is the spread. The farther you go away from that the less valuable points get. Getting +99 instead of +100 when the game is +5 is almost insignificant.

I am not saying that the point value of 1 is worth more than 4 or 5, but it is worth a lot less than you would think.

[smoke a bowl]

What I am saying is that if you just look at the games and go, "the margin of 1 in a game occurs less than the margin of 4 in a game, because there have been 1200 games that have ended in 4 and only 800 that have ended in 1, therefore 4 is worth more than 1" is a flawed statement.

If the game were -10 which is more valuable? They are closer to be worth about the same.

Since the average NBA spread is -3.3, you can assume that the point values of 4 and 3 are going to be worth the most because that is were most games land because it is the spread. The farther you go away from that the less valuable points get. Getting +99 instead of +100 when the game is +5 is almost insignificant.

I am not saying that the point value of 1 is worth more than 4 or 5, but it is worth a lot less than you would think.

I understand what you are saying but you are 100% wrong. Games with spreads of -5 have just as much chance to land on 1 as games -1 do. Games lined -7 have just as good of a chance as landing on 3 as games lined -3 do. Check your database if you think I am wrong. Now games lines -1 have a better chance of landing 1 than games -18 but not the case for any # within 1-6 pts of another. Another words, all games lined between 1-5 have the same push rates for the 1,2,3,4,an 5 (within baby fractions). The 1 is weaker period.

[monologue]

I say pound on blazers, and here we go BW comes and say blazers..
I hope u guys arnt mad enough to bet on clippers

[pro-style]

I understand what you are saying but you are 100% wrong. Games with spreads of -5 have just as much chance to land on 1 as games -1 do. Games lined -7 have just as good of a chance as landing on 3 as games lined -3 do. Check your database if you think I am wrong. Now games lines -1 have a better chance of landing 1 than games -18 but not the case for any # within 1-6 pts of another. Another words, all games lined between 1-5 have the same push rates for the 1,2,3,4,an 5 (within baby fractions). The 1 is weaker period.

Lol wat. So you are telling me that two evenly matched (given all factors, home, rest, etc...) teams are just as likely to land on the margin of 1 than two teams when one is valued at -5? Right...

There isn't enough of a sample of nba games to look at historical data. Going to have to look at this from a logical standpoint.

The spread absolutely matters how valuable certain points are.

[smoke a bowl]

Lol wat. So you are telling me that two evenly matched (given all factors, home, rest, etc...) teams are just as likely to land on the margin of 1 than two teams when one is valued at -5? Right...

There isn't enough of a sample of nba games to look at historical data. Going to have to look at this from a logical standpoint.

Correct. If you had a database which you are proving is not the case you would know this.

[smoke a bowl]

Lol wat. So you are telling me that two evenly matched (given all factors, home, rest, etc...) teams are just as likely to land on the margin of 1 than two teams when one is valued at -5? Right...

There isn't enough of a sample of nba games to look at historical data. Going to have to look at this from a logical standpoint.

The spread absolutely matters how valuable certain points are.

There's enough data if you know how to use it. You can use ranges of different lines along with logic to reach reasonable conclusions. If you had ever done such you would realize that small differences in pointspreads have no impact on push rates. Obviously games lines between 11-15 will have different push rates than lines between 1-5 but even those differences are less than you think.

[pro-style]

Correct. If you had a database which you are proving is not the case you would know this.

I do have a database and this is wrong. The sample size is way to small to draw any conclusions from this exact scenario. Especially given the high variance nature of the specific query.

If you give a range you can still see a linear correlation as you move away from the spread regardless of what the spread is.

Claiming that a game capped at -7 is just as likely to land on a margin of 1 as a game capped at -1 is absurdly false.

[TehSharp]

Aldridge doubtful. Blazers tired. Blazers win by a billion!

[beastsynthesis]

guys wtf are you arguing about? put money on either side and enjoy the game and stop proclaiming easy money and locks, there is absolutely no such thing.

[pro-style]

guys wtf are you arguing about? put money on either side and enjoy the game and stop proclaiming easy money and locks, there is absolutely no such thing.

I don't think either of us has claimed easy money or locks?

[smoke a bowl]

guys wtf are you arguing about? put money on either side and enjoy the game and stop proclaiming easy money and locks, there is absolutely no such thing.

I don't see where either of us claimed such. I believe Clips -2 is a 54ish% play tonight while pro-style believes the opposite. The market is leaning his way currently. So it goes.

[CertainValor]

There is an absurd amount of smoke being blown out of each others butts in this thread. It is as if the most frequently boisterous, frequently incorrect individuals on this entire forum decided to split their numbers in half, take the Clippers and Blazers at 50/50 and argue about it for an entire day in fear of having their insecurities come to bare.

There are too many variables in this game for the junk science and slide-ruler mathematics you find on these forums. Ignore the mass of vitriolic prognosticators and make your decision based on your best guess, if its Portland or LAC or no one. And don't come around and try to use flaccid psychology and logical fallacies to pump the friggin' thing up.

Consider that if the gross majority of these nincompoops were so sure of their pick, why would they spend an entire day trying to defend their idea's various holes? Confidence, kids, does not require supporting evidence. People are trying to talk themselves into their own assumptions and hopes.

The best threads on this forum are from the people who are quietly tailed and don't go barking lunacy or slamming their arithmetic books in other people's eyes. Whenever I see a thread that champions a particular play because it is a profound departure from the public, or from the sharps, or from logic, or from anything really, I am reminded pretty quickly how many turds in this degenerate hobby have the happy habit of disappearing up their own asshole.

[Inkwell77]

I highly doubt the Blazers lose 4 home games in a row, unless Crawford is reffing. If you are betting the Clippers you are a braver man than I.

[frostno98]

Blazers playing a triple back to back. Don't see them hanging the entire day. They will wear out eventually without Aldridge.

[Azzurri]

i see absolutely no value in this game what so ever. If anything id go against a dead tried Port bunch playing without there best player.

[jstblaze]

The only 2 people i know that are supposed sharps (pro bettors, primary source of income, 10 years of doing this)

Are on the clipps.

Im not taking them or saying that anyone should, i just want to dispell the idiot who started this threads opinion that sharps are on portland.

I dont think that is the case. I see your wonderful little chart that all of us had already lookd at, but it is still limited information.

[smoke a bowl]

The only 2 people i know that are supposed sharps (pro bettors, primary source of income, 10 years of doing this)

Are on the clipps.

Im not taking them or saying that anyone should, i just want to dispell the idiot who started this threads opinion that sharps are on portland.

I dont think that is the case. I see your wonderful little chart that all of us had already lookd at, but it is still limited information.

[gauchojake]

clips roll. portland looked like crap last night and even though they won me some money, i don't think this game is even close.

[Robber]

I'm waiting for dudders to move the line with his huge five dollar bet on Portland ml

[DudleyDawson]

good sign for clips backers if the celts cover