View Poll Results: Do you think it's possible to win a 25 team parlay on only MLB games?

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  • Yes

    19 44.19%
  • No

    24 55.81%
  1. #1
    cleaveland
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    Do you think it's possible to win a 25 team parlay on only MLB games?

    I was just reading vyomguy's thread, congrats to him. It's interesting to look at what he bet on: 64% college basketball, 28% NFL, 4% NHL, 4% college football.

    I've always thought something like this could never be done betting only Major League Baseball games, what do you think? I think the best you could do on only MLB games would be about an open ten teamer with plenty of luck on your side. However, if a pro opened a 25 team open parlay for an entire season and only put their best plays in it, who knows?

  2. #2
    Romocide
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    Anything's possible.

  3. #3
    cleaveland
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    Quote Originally Posted by Romocide View Post
    Anything's possible.
    Yeah normally I'd say yes but in MLB, an ump missing one call can turn an easy win into a loss. That happens all the time when everything's on the up and up much less possibly favoring one team over another.

    Similarly, one error can decide a game, one bad pitch, it's really not like any other sport in that sense imho. One bad pitch with the bases loaded can turn an easy 3-0 win into a 4-3 loss. It takes a little luck to win MOST MLB bets imho.

    I think it would take way too much good fortune to win a 25 team parlay, you never know though.

  4. #4
    stevenash
    Phillies over 72.5 wins
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    Quote Originally Posted by cleaveland View Post
    Yeah normally I'd say yes but in MLB, an ump missing one call can turn an easy win into a loss.
    Not just that, a routine double play ground ball with the bases loaded and one out to third base that hits a pebble, gets redirected over the bag for a three run double.

    Inning ending DP turns into a 3 run dagger over a bad bounce because of a pebble.

  5. #5
    cleaveland
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    Quote Originally Posted by stevenash View Post
    Not just that, a routine double play ground ball with the bases loaded and one out to third base that hits a pebble, gets redirected over the bag for a three run double.

    Inning ending DP turns into a 3 run dagger over a bad bounce because of a pebble.
    I've never thought of that before. Orel Hershiser's scoreless innings streak is so mind-boggling when you take all of this account and even more incredible when you consider that he did it during the pennant run and into the playoffs.

    If there were enough hot pitchers like that and you had an entire season to do the parlay, it could be within the realm of possibility. If I was gonna try this one way to do it would be to take the +1.5 line on a hot, dominant pitcher's team for every play but that's gonna be huge odds in the -400 to -500 or more range. You would still need a ton of luck imho.

  6. #6
    konck
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    Yes Im sure one of the SBR scam acct will do it ChuckLuck already hit an 11 teamer for 64 k in pts lol hahhahahahhahah oh yeah that was on a 27-2 run lol

  7. #7
    konck
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    maybe str will hit the 25 lol

  8. #8
    stevenash
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    Your best bet of hitting one of those ludicrous 25 teamers is to use a book (like 5Dimes) and do an open ended parlay.
    Might take 7 weeks if you are smart and use 3 or 4 very logical plays a week.

  9. #9
    WvGambler
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    Quote Originally Posted by cleaveland View Post

    Yeah normally I'd say yes but in MLB, an ump missing one call can turn an easy win into a loss. That happens all the time when everything's on the up and up much less possibly favoring one team over another.

    Similarly, one error can decide a game, one bad pitch, it's really not like any other sport in that sense imho. One bad pitch with the bases loaded can turn an easy 3-0 win into a 4-3 loss. It takes a little luck to win MOST MLB bets imho.

    I think it would take way too much good fortune to win a 25 team parlay, you never know though.
    Sure, but a bad call can turn a loss into a win also. Contrary to common belief, umps don't have ill will towards you, nor do they have a list of your parlay teams in their pocket.

  10. #10
    RoadFavorites$$$
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    nah simply because most MLB lines are -250 max... and most are below -200... if you do college basketball or college football parlays you can throw some -1000 favorites in there.

  11. #11
    cleaveland
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    Quote Originally Posted by WvGambler View Post
    Sure, but a bad call can turn a loss into a win also.
    Then your play is still determined by luck and that's the case with way too many MLB games, that's what I was getting at with this thread.

    I have seen a hand full of MLB games that I considered to be nearly locks. For example, when the Twins won the wildcard spot in extra innings after midnight I think and then had to go into Yankee Stadium to play a day game the next day to start the playoffs against a rested Sabathia with like their #3 starter going after the Yankees had dominated them all season, I thought that was a near lock and the moneyline got up to -400 or more I think. If you had 25 of those I would like your chances of hitting the parlay, really. But, those are once in a blue moon games imho.

    This is a more interesting question than I thought at first.
    Last edited by cleaveland; 02-03-12 at 06:37 AM.

  12. #12
    cleaveland
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    Quote Originally Posted by RoadFavorites$$$ View Post
    nah simply because most MLB lines are -250 max... and most are below -200... if you do college basketball or college football parlays you can throw some -1000 favorites in there.
    +2.5 lines and reverse +1.5 lines can way higher than -500, you didn't know that?

    The odds don't mean much in MLB frequently, I've seen dogs that had the same chance to win as a -300 favorite, it happens all the time.

  13. #13
    RoadFavorites$$$
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    Quote Originally Posted by cleaveland View Post
    +2.5 lines and reverse +1.5 lines can way higher than -500, you didn't know that?
    This is a line that my high school baseball coach used to tell me, I'm not sure if this stat was just for our division or for MLB or what, but he said that like 50% of the time, the team that wins scores more in one inning than the other team does the entire game.

    One pitch is too often the difference between a 8-2 game and a 2-1 game, so I don't think 25 team parlays are hittable in baseball.

  14. #14
    peacebyinches
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    Quote Originally Posted by RoadFavorites$$$ View Post
    nah simply because most MLB lines are -250 max... and most are below -200... if you do college basketball or college football parlays you can throw some -1000 favorites in there.

    I think that is the key point here, but then again... if the book allows you to buy a ridiculous amount of runs and you could give them to the favored team, and you did an open ended parlay, and only picked home favorites pitching their ace against the Pittsburgh pirates all season, well maybe I dunno, I'm just rambling now
    Last edited by peacebyinches; 02-03-12 at 06:37 AM. Reason: typo

  15. #15
    cleaveland
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    Quote Originally Posted by peacebyinches View Post
    I think that is the key point here, but then again... if the book allows you to buy a ridiculous amount of runs and you could give them to the favored team, and you did an open ended parlay, and only picked home favorites pitching their ace against the Pittsburgh pirates all season, well maybe I dunno, I'm just rambling now
    I have to change my answer to yes, if you were very careful and you did something similar to what you're saying it's possible.

  16. #16
    k13
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    Same chance as flipping Heads 25 times in a row.

  17. #17
    cleaveland
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    Quote Originally Posted by k13 View Post
    Same chance as flipping Heads 25 times in a row.
    So you're saying that people taking the Yankees +1.5 -500 when Sabathia pitches are paying all that juice for the equivalent of a coin flip?
    Last edited by cleaveland; 02-03-12 at 07:02 AM.

  18. #18
    stevenash
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    Quote Originally Posted by RoadFavorites$$$ View Post
    that like 50% of the time, the team that wins scores more in one inning than the other team does the entire game.
    This is a proven mathematical fact and applies to all games, not just playoffs.

  19. #19
    cleaveland
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    Quote Originally Posted by cleaveland View Post
    So you're saying that people taking the Yankees +1.5 -500 when Sabathia pitches are paying all that juice for the equivalent of a coin flip?
    There's another side to this, do you think books will give out +400 odds on the reverse run line for the equivalent of a coin flip?

    I'm shocked by what I read here sometimes.
    Last edited by cleaveland; 02-03-12 at 07:17 AM.

  20. #20
    floridagolfer
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    Quote Originally Posted by Romocide View Post
    Anything's possible.
    Agreed. And if placing wagers with a success rate that's about equal to hitting the lottery happens to be your thing . . .

  21. #21
    cleaveland
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    Quote Originally Posted by floridagolfer View Post
    Agreed. And if placing wagers with a success rate that's about equal to hitting the lottery happens to be your thing . . .
    Yeah, but most people won't even touch huge favorites in MLB no matter how good their chances are. For example, I've never seen anyone here post "I'm taking this -500 bet in MLB (maybe college baseball)", possibly it's because they're embarrassed with to admit it with the environment the way it is (big favorites in MLB always seem to be called square picks here).

    Still, if you started at the beginning of the season and you only took hot aces v. bad teams at home on the +1.5 reverse run line, it has a much better chance than the lottery.
    Last edited by cleaveland; 02-03-12 at 07:41 AM.

  22. #22
    Call82
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    Quote Originally Posted by cleaveland View Post
    +2.5 lines and reverse +1.5 lines can way higher than -500, you didn't know that?

    The odds don't mean much in MLB frequently, I've seen dogs that had the same chance to win as a -300 favorite, it happens all the time.
    I know that 5Dimes offers these lines for straight bets but have you ever tried to include them into an open parlay? Not sure if they allow it...just my $0,02

  23. #23
    Call82
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    Quote Originally Posted by cleaveland View Post
    Yeah, but most people won't even touch huge favorites in MLB no matter how good their chances are. For example, I've never seen anyone here post "I'm taking this -500 bet in MLB (maybe college baseball)", possibly it's because they're embarrassed with to admit it with the environment the way it is (big favorites in MLB always seem to be called square picks here).

    Still, if you started at the beginning of the season and you only took hot aces v. bad teams at home on the +1.5 reverse run line, it has a much better chance than the lottery.

    Chances are definately much higher, but so is your payout...not trying to be a di*k here, I just think that the pricing is not a gimme...but I have to say that I like your thinking and I will give it a try this season

  24. #24
    cleaveland
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    Quote Originally Posted by Call82 View Post
    I know that 5Dimes offers these lines for straight bets but have you ever tried to include them into an open parlay? Not sure if they allow it...just my $0,02
    You're probably right but it's a big world out there, I'm sure none of us know all the betting possibilities.

    Anyways, let's say you start with $500 and you keep your unit size at $500 and you win 25 -500 bets in a row like we're talking about, you still just earned $2,500 and the great part is that as long you stop after the first loss then you'd only need to hit the first eleven to guarantee a profit.

    Although that sounds ridiculously hard, if you were patient and careful enough with the reverse lines it's not that difficult if you're a really good capper.

    But then again, if you're that good of a capper you should win just picking ordinary games, oh well.

  25. #25
    cleaveland
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    Quote Originally Posted by Call82 View Post
    Chances are definately much higher, but so is your payout...not trying to be a di*k here, I just think that the pricing is not a gimme...but I have to say that I like your thinking and I will give it a try this season
    Wow, this one of the first times in my life someone listened to me like this. Best of luck!

    Would you mind starting a thread to track this experiment and would you send me a link to the thread in a PM once you do? I'll look forward to it, awesome.

  26. #26
    FourLengthsClear
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    If you assume average odds of -400 per leg of a 25 teamer and that those odds also represent the fair value then you have about a 1 in 264 chance of the parlay cashing.

  27. #27
    cleaveland
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    Quote Originally Posted by FourLengthsClear View Post
    those odds also represent the fair value
    You would choose games were the odds don't represent fair value. Something like one of the top aces has a scoreless streak going against some awful team that's bringing up a guy from the minors with a 6 ERA and you cap this guy from the minors to be a horrible pitcher who has no business in the majors.

    Those types of games actually happen and the odds are usually not fair value, they're actually usually too low even at -350 or whatever they are. Now you take the reverse run line a game like that it's probably +1.5 -500 or so.

    This is the kind of stuff I'm talking about.

  28. #28
    AlwaysDrawing
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    Yes it's possible.

    Yes I would love to be the bookie for accepting your 25 team parlays (especially if you are betting runlines and reverse runlines)

  29. #29
    stevenash
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    Quote Originally Posted by AlwaysDrawing View Post
    (especially if you are betting runlines and reverse runlines)
    which are juiced to the beejeezus.

  30. #30
    cleaveland
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    This idea of mine came from me thinking about Orel Hershiser's consecutive scoreless innings, this was the regular season part of it:

    "On Aug. 30, 1988, the Dodgers faced the Expos at Stade Olympique. Orel Hershiser was on the mound. In the bottom of the fifth, with the Dodgers up 4-0, the Expos scored two runs. It was the last time a team would score on Hershiser that season. He blanked the Expos for the final four innings of that game, upping his record to 18-8 and lowering his ERA to 2.84. Here's what the rest of his year looked like:

    Sept. 5: At Atlanta, 9 IP, 0 runs, 4 hits
    Sept. 10: In LA vs. the Reds, 9 IP, 0 runs, 7 hits
    Sept. 14: In LA, vs. the Braves, 9 IP, 0 runs, 6 hits
    Sept. 19: At Houston, 9 IP, 0 runs, 4 hits
    Sept. 23: At San Francisco, 9 IP, 0 runs, 5 hits
    Sept. 28: At San Diego, 10 IP, 0 runs, 4 hits

    Hershiser had pitched 59 scoreless innings, breaking Don Drysdale's mark by 1/3 of an inning. At the end of the streak, his ERA was 2.26, more than half a run lower than it had been just a month earlier."

    What I was theorizing about is that if enough pitchers had great streaks (probably never like that again) but great streaks, and we see them every season...you could use that to win this parlay. That's what I was saying. And if several pitchers had dominant runs and the right capper was riding them like what I'm saying...it's possible.

    It would take the right conditions and the right capper with luck on their side of course.
    Last edited by cleaveland; 02-03-12 at 10:07 AM.

  31. #31
    AlwaysDrawing
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    Quote Originally Posted by cleaveland View Post
    This idea of mine came from me thinking about Orel Hershiser's consecutive scoreless innings, this was the regular season part of it:

    "On Aug. 30, 1988, the Dodgers faced the Expos at Stade Olympique. Orel Hershiser was on the mound. In the bottom of the fifth, with the Dodgers up 4-0, the Expos scored two runs. It was the last time a team would score on Hershiser that season. He blanked the Expos for the final four innings of that game, upping his record to 18-8 and lowering his ERA to 2.84. Here's what the rest of his year looked like:

    Sept. 5: At Atlanta, 9 IP, 0 runs, 4 hits
    Sept. 10: In LA vs. the Reds, 9 IP, 0 runs, 7 hits
    Sept. 14: In LA, vs. the Braves, 9 IP, 0 runs, 6 hits
    Sept. 19: At Houston, 9 IP, 0 runs, 4 hits
    Sept. 23: At San Francisco, 9 IP, 0 runs, 5 hits
    Sept. 28: At San Diego, 10 IP, 0 runs, 4 hits

    Hershiser had pitched 59 scoreless innings, breaking Don Drysdale's mark by 1/3 of an inning. At the end of the streak, his ERA was 2.26, more than half a run lower than it had been just a month earlier."

    What I was theorizing about is that if enough pitchers had great streaks (probably never like that again) but great streaks, and we see them every season...you could use that to win this parlay. That's what I was saying. And if several pitchers had dominant runs and the right capper was riding them like what I'm saying...it's possible.

    It would take the right conditions and the right capper with luck on their side of course.
    You seem sharp. for you, I'll offer 200 point 25 team open parlays. Any sport. Use current 5dimes lines, and I even give true parlay payouts. Deposits must be made before you start making picks.

    Good luck!

  32. #32
    ebbearsfb1
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    Quote Originally Posted by AlwaysDrawing View Post
    You seem sharp. for you, I'll offer 200 point 25 team open parlays. Any sport. Use current 5dimes lines, and I even give true parlay payouts. Deposits must be made before you start making picks.

    Good luck!
    yeah cause you have the points to pay him if he wins... just like you want to do nd vs usc straight up for 1000 points 9 months in a dvance... you need points that bad?

  33. #33
    OMGRandyJackson
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    Tell me if I am following this correctly...

    You want to know if it is possible to hit a 25 game MLB parlay?

    If I am correct in that...then the answer is no. There are not 50 teams in the mlb and therefore there will never be a night where you will get 25 games in. Unless there happens to be multiple double headers or your book allows you to parlay with future mlb games?

  34. #34
    stevenash
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    ^
    open ended parlay.

    Let's use 5Dimes for example, click the parlay option, say on May 1 you like Florida Marlins with Johnson, you bet 100 dollars, next step is 5Dimes will ask you how many teams you want in your parlay, you say 25.

    Now you don't have to bet all baseball games from there on out, you can, but you can bet NBA playoffs, whatever, but you are committed to 24 more bets to finish your 25 team open ended parlay, you don't have to do every game in 1 day.

    I mentioned this already, some books don't let you bet an open ender though.

  35. #35
    OMGRandyJackson
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    Ohhh cool. I did not know this existed. So you could potential bet 1 mlb game a day for the next 25 days?

    Does pinnacle offer these parlays?

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