[mathdotcom]

Standard odds for 2 teamer +4 points: -110

Data: Teams miss covering by a half point about 2% of the time. Same for teams not covering by a full point, 1.5, etc.

Need each leg of teaser to hit at least 72% of the time to break even.

Adding 4 points to a team's spread gives the dog a 50% + (8*2)% = 66% chance of covering. Fair odds on such teasers closer to +130.

Well below the 72% needed for bet to be +EV

Take Nets -4.5 game tonight as an example. Tease it down to -0.5 and Pinn gives fair odds of -186 on that bet with a win % of 64.5%. Not even close to 72%.

Choose a teaser that crosses 0 and the percentage chance of that leg covering falls 2%.

If you must do it (jjgold), go for games with low totals... ahem.. not NBA.

You're welcome
mathy

[compaqDikk]

[RoadFavorites$$$]

Standard odds for 2 teamer +4 points: -110

Data: Teams miss covering by a half point about 2% of the time. Same for teams not covering by a full point, 1.5, etc.

Need each leg of teaser to hit at least 72% of the time to break even.

Adding 4 points to a team's spread gives the dog a 50% + (8*2)% = 66% chance of covering. Fair odds on such teasers closer to +130.

Well below the 72% needed for bet to be +EV

Take Nets -4.5 game tonight as an example. Tease it down to -0.5 and Pinn gives fair odds of -186 on that bet with a win % of 64.5%. Not even close to 72%.

Choose a teaser that crosses 0 and the percentage chance of that leg covering falls 2%.

If you must do it (jjgold), go for games with low totals... ahem.. not NBA.

You're welcome
mathy

There are 3 team 8 point teasers and 4 team 10 point teasers. I assume these are -EV as well, but teasing Big 10 type games that are going to end up 55-52 seems like it could be +EV.

[mathdotcom]

There are 3 team 8 point teasers and 4 team 10 point teasers. I assume these are -EV as well, but teasing Big 10 type games that are going to end up 55-52 seems like it could be +EV.

Yes they get worse and worse

It is more likely a favorite covers by 1 than 20 (to take an extreme example)

[manny24]

mathy too many numbers to read whole thread just give us the winners we trust you boss.

[RoadFavorites$$$]

10 point teasers seem beatable. I started picking out my 'best' 4 team 10 point teaser of the day CBB+NBA and they are hitting with pretty good success. Only betting 1 unit until they prove themselves more, but today I chose:

Bulls +14.5
Michigan +24
ND +18.5
Iona -3.5

[mathdotcom]

welcome back compactor

[mathdotcom]

10 point teasers seem beatable. I started picking out my 'best' 4 team 10 point teaser of the day CBB+NBA and they are hitting with pretty good success. Only betting 1 unit until they prove themselves more, but today I chose:

Bulls +14.5
Michigan +24
ND +18.5
Iona -3.5

Read my fukkin post

[RoadFavorites$$$]

Read my fukkin post

You even acknowledged some leeway for certain games. In certain spots, getting +18 for Indiana at Wisconsin is a good teaser leg considering its going to take most of a half for Wisconsin to score 18 points.

[mathdotcom]

No I acknowledged which games to lose less on

[No coincidences]

Why is buying points in basketball the same price as buying points in football? Especially with totals -- you have a key number in the NFL that you want to get off of or tease away from, and that costs the same as a given NBA total that's 200?

[neverstoppers23]

i have done fairly well on c. basketball teasers thus far. don't see them anymore difficult then other sports. interesting analysis though.

[mathdotcom]

Why is buying points in basketball the same price as buying points in football? Especially with totals -- you have a key number in the NFL that you want to get off of or tease away from, and that costs the same as a given NBA total that's 200?

If you're smart you get key numbers in NFL. If you randomly tease some teams you get a lot of shit numbers like 8,9,12 etc.

For totals of course you are correct

[No coincidences]

If you're smart you get key numbers in NFL. If you randomly tease some teams you get a lot of shit numbers like 8,9,12 etc.

For totals of course you are correct

Teasers make sense in the NFL -- especially considering how sharp the lines are.

I've never understood why you'd tease anything in basketball, but especially totals.

[FourLengthsClear]

Why is buying points in basketball the same price as buying points in football? Especially with totals -- you have a key number in the NFL that you want to get off of or tease away from, and that costs the same as a given NBA total that's 200?

Because there are enough idiots willing to pay.

NCAAB half points (spread) where the totals are not exceptionally high actually represent a better (read less bad) buy than most football half points.

[RoadFavorites$$$]

Well, I have to agree to disagree. Teasing an NBA total from 200 to 190 doesn't give you much value, but teasing a big dog to a huge dog in a low scoring slug fest type game usually is pretty great value, which is why lots of books don't offer the 8/10 point teaser.

[No coincidences]

Well, I have to agree to disagree. Teasing an NBA total from 200 to 190 doesn't give you much value, but teasing a big dog to a huge dog in a low scoring slug fest type game usually is pretty great value, which is why lots of books don't offer the 8/10 point teaser.

Again, it makes a little more sense to tease NBA games on sides because lines are typically pretty sharp. College sides? No way. Totals? Never.

[RoadFavorites$$$]

Again, it makes a little more sense to tease NBA games on sides because lines are typically pretty sharp. College sides? No way. Totals? Never.

I think college sides in the big games are sharper than you think.

Just for an example, my original example, Indiana at Wisconsin... Line was set at 7-8 and Indiana lost by 7. Just the way Wisconsin plays basketball makes it extremely unlikely they beat Indiana by 19 points in that spot. That is around 16 minutes of scoring for them.

[RoadFavorites$$$]

But sharpness of the lines aside, in an NBA game, 15 points can be scored in a minute.

In a Wisconsin conference game, 15 points can be scored in 15 minutes.

[yisman]

can't tease totals in the NBA. You'll get buried.

[jjgold]

Classic Compactor

mathy..4 lengths can school everyone here

[vyomguy]

never play teasers in basketball.

[FourLengthsClear]

Well, I have to agree to disagree. Teasing an NBA total from 200 to 190 doesn't give you much value, but teasing a big dog to a huge dog in a low scoring slug fest type game usually is pretty great value, which is why lots of books don't offer the 8/10 point teaser.

Empirically speaking you are wrong.

A 4-team 10 point teaser paying -120 essentially means you are laying -611 (85.94% implied probability) for each leg of the teaser.

Put another way this means that for the teaser leg to represent value compared to the ATS at -110, the result would need to finish within the 10pt range teased 33.56% of time (85.94-52.38).

Taking all matches from the lowest totalled quartiles from NBA and NCAAB over the last 5 years, the actual figure is well below that. Does that mean it is impossible to find a good spot for this type of play? No but that can be said of any type of play that is statistically -EV.

[manny24]

road faves hijacked mathy's thread!...classic.

[lakerboy]

You don'tplay teasers in the nba. There is a reason no one talks about them.

[RonPaul2008]

Duh. Don't bet teasers in anything but NFL and only on a select few spreads.

[lunchbawks]

Teasers in general are a ripoff. Parlay 2-3 good picks or play it straight

[HoulihansTX]

People who can not pick their nose do teasers, and buy an absurd amount of points. Keep on laying the heavy juice suckers.

[icancount2one]

teasers excepting "key number" nfl teasers are a ripoff. Parlay 3 good picks if you have a freeplay, or play it straight

ftfy

[Ethan1122]

I play teaser but only when I'm picking even or + never when I'm giving up juice.

[subs]

da teasers is the shit, deys like insurance fo fat spreads and for totals, fo shure. the fatter teasers is da bestest so fo shure tease dem games with extra fat totals.

mathsy + 4LC don't know shit bout shit brah, don't listen to dem... all that maths is fo shit. is no fvckin way all dat nerdy shit means anyfin anyways - j'naa mean. u just gots to trust yo guts. WTF the price don't matter if u pick winnaz yo.

teasers is lox, dem bookies is dumb ass MF. lets get dat free money!

[jjgold]

I love teasers and the action coverage it gives you

Say I have $50 left in account and want to bet on many games I will bet a teaser

Its about action for me now and masking issues within myself

[Ez Money 77]

I love teasers and the action coverage it gives you

Say I have $50 left in account and want to bet on many games I will bet a teaser

Its about action for me now and masking issues within myself

I feel the same way about the action. Might not be smart money management but I love having actikn and the points make the action even better. To each their own though.

[mathdotcom]

coach do you still suffer from spider phobias?

[Jaug]

If you bet teasers, you don't want a math lesson. My 2 cents.