Memphis/Tulsa Tonight ??

**dlunc3** · 10-23-15, 07:12 AM

Tulsa

**jjgold** · 10-23-15, 07:53 AM

I am very very hot

Tail me all

**mikmik** · 10-23-15, 07:54 AM

Nope, Memphis going to roll. Tulsa is not good.

**LT Profits** · 10-23-15, 07:57 AM

Tulsa +11 bet a few days ago. This line seems insane to me, should be closer to +7.5/+8, and that is not even considering what a HUGE letdown spot this is for Memphis after winning probably the biggest game in the football program's history, a game they had circled since schedules came out.

**PorkChop** · 10-23-15, 08:05 AM

LT again with the "letdown" angle. Killing me.

**TheSchafe** · 10-23-15, 08:05 AM

Memphis. They're in style points mode now...they'll be trying to score until the final gun. Oh, Paxton Lynch too.

**jjgold** · 10-23-15, 08:14 AM

Memphis can score

We all know this

Let's hope Tulsa does not turn ball over

**LT Profits** · 10-23-15, 08:29 AM

Originally posted by PorkChop

LT again with the "letdown" angle. Killing me.

Because letdown angles are huge because lines are not always adequately adjusted for them, which appears to be the case here. In fact, seems this line is actually inflated after the big Memphis win instead of being deflated a tad as it should be. Taking letdown and emotion out of the equation and looking only at pure numbers, my model only has Memphis -8.85.

**LT Profits** · 10-23-15, 08:30 AM

Originally posted by jjgold

Memphis can score

We all know this

Let's hope Tulsa does not turn ball over

Tulsa is ranked AHEAD of Memphis in total offense and Memphis defense still blows despite the 6-0. I see touchdown game either way, Tulsa seems like obvious call getting double-digs at home.

**LT Profits** · 10-23-15, 08:32 AM

Originally posted by TheSchafe

Memphis. They're in style points mode now...they'll be trying to score until the final gun. Oh, Paxton Lynch too.

But the bigger issue should be Memphis defense containing Tulsa. This has replay of Memphis vs. Cincinnati written all over it IMO.

**Bbfromgpt** · 10-23-15, 08:32 AM

I'm seeing something like 44-31 memphis. Who knows though, should be a fun game

**shaunovery** · 10-23-15, 08:40 AM

Total seems a little high for me may have a small dabble or just wait plenty of good games to lose my money on sat/sun 😀

**texhooper** · 10-23-15, 08:43 AM

i will say if there ever is a letdown spot in this entire football season, it's this game. one of the biggest wins in program history, the first time memphis has ever been ranked in the top 20, and on the road on a short week vs a team you should beat. any other week memphis rolls. but i don't know that i can touch this one personally.

**LT Profits** · 10-23-15, 08:46 AM

Originally posted by shaunovery

Total seems a little high for me may have a small dabble or just wait plenty of good games to lose my money on sat/sun 😀

If I am right about Memphis/Cincinnati replay, teams would break 90.

No, I have no interest in betting an Over 76, but the total is understandable.

**lilpete** · 10-23-15, 08:53 AM

Originally posted by jjgold

Watch out here

Take points is wise

10.5

thanks, i took the points

**D Med** · 10-23-15, 09:16 AM

Tulsa does look good

**HeeluvaGuy** · 10-23-15, 10:09 AM

I don't think total offense is a very meaningful stat for a team like Tulsa that runs a thousand plays a game. Their offense is not very efficient, which shows up in their YPPT (16.5), which is 110th in the nation. The lack of efficiency is also obvious from watching the product on the field. I have Memphis winning by 18, which is likely a little high. Don't have a play on this one yet though.

**katstale** · 10-23-15, 10:17 AM

Just things to consider: Memphis coach is Tulsa boy so has no interest in beat down (except to keep ranking). Rainy weather in Tulsa. Tulsa QB and offense is not consistent at all. Had chances to beat Houston, but shot themselves over and over. If the conditions get sloppy--Tulsa has stud runner for that. Memphis should win by 3 tds, but given all the factors if u can get 11 I think that is way to go. Back door cover

**GIVEMETHEMONEY** · 10-23-15, 11:28 AM

Memphis all day long.

What hybrid form of crack is LT smoking?

**Bbfromgpt** · 10-23-15, 11:57 AM

Originally posted by katstale

Just things to consider: Memphis coach is Tulsa boy so has no interest in beat down (except to keep ranking). Rainy weather in Tulsa. Tulsa QB and offense is not consistent at all. Had chances to beat Houston, but shot themselves over and over. If the conditions get sloppy--Tulsa has stud runner for that. Memphis should win by 3 tds, but given all the factors if u can get 11 I think that is way to go. Back door cover

Him being a Tulsa boy has nothing to do with it. If they can by 50 they will. They need style points.

**BigdaddyQH** · 10-23-15, 12:33 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

Because letdown angles are huge because lines are not always adequately adjusted for them, which appears to be the case here. In fact, seems this line is actually inflated after the big Memphis win instead of being deflated a tad as it should be. Taking letdown and emotion out of the equation and looking only at pure numbers, my model only has Memphis -8.85.

Really? You really think that Vegas overlooks possible letdown angles? How about looking at the facts for once. Memphis is in a position to get a New Years Day 6 Bowl invite if they win out. They have a cake walk next week against Tulane at home. Tulsa is 1-3 since starting out at 2-0 with wins against Florida Alantic and New Mexico. That only win was against La. Monroe. The fact of the matter is that Memphis should have opened at 13 to 14, NOT the 11 that it did. I know that you have not exactly lit it up this season in here. Have you ever worked in a sports book in Vegas? Do you KNOW the actual inner workings? How much movement has there been on this game? That in itself should tell you something.

**Manny0825** · 10-23-15, 12:46 PM

I'm not so sure about this one. I think laying the points would be better IMO. GL

**recon1** · 10-23-15, 01:43 PM

These city colleges will make a grown man cry, tread with caution.

**LT Profits** · 10-23-15, 02:14 PM

Originally posted by BigdaddyQH

Really? You really think that Vegas overlooks possible letdown angles? How about looking at the facts for once. Memphis is in a position to get a New Years Day 6 Bowl invite if they win out. They have a cake walk next week against Tulane at home. Tulsa is 1-3 since starting out at 2-0 with wins against Florida Alantic and New Mexico. That only win was against La. Monroe. The fact of the matter is that Memphis should have opened at 13 to 14, NOT the 11 that it did. I know that you have not exactly lit it up this season in here. Have you ever worked in a sports book in Vegas? Do you KNOW the actual inner workings? How much movement has there been on this game? That in itself should tell you something.

Yes, money is pouring in on Tulsa.

Now down to -10.

**sandman0713** · 10-23-15, 02:39 PM

Originally posted by katstale

Just things to consider: Memphis coach is Tulsa boy so has no interest in beat down (except to keep ranking). Rainy weather in Tulsa. Tulsa QB and offense is not consistent at all. Had chances to beat Houston, but shot themselves over and over. If the conditions get sloppy--Tulsa has stud runner for that. Memphis should win by 3 tds, but given all the factors if u can get 11 I think that is way to go. Back door cover

Rain should not be a factor. It is cloudy, but only around a 10% chance...and no wind. Tulsa d sucks just as bad as Memphis. Total is high for a reason imo and the over is the only play that makes sense to me. No way this crap d is slowing Memphis down.

**Bbfromgpt** · 10-23-15, 02:54 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

Yes, money is pouring in on Tulsa.

Now down to -10.

It was at 10 all morning, then back up to 10.5 and now back down to 10

**pavyracer** · 10-23-15, 03:01 PM

Originally posted by jjgold

I am very very hot

Tail me all

You had 49ers last night.

**chiunit** · 10-23-15, 03:13 PM

Memphis -10.5 and under 76.5.

**LT Profits** · 10-23-15, 03:25 PM

Originally posted by Bbfromgpt

It was at 10 all morning, then back up to 10.5 and now back down to 10

I was generally addressing his "How much movement has there been on this game?" from opener to now. Actually opened at 11.5.

**pavyracer** · 10-23-15, 03:27 PM

LT Profits what's you record the last 20 years betting on letdown games? Has a team ever covered the spread while playing a letdown game?

**texhooper** · 10-23-15, 03:38 PM

Originally posted by pavyracer

LT Profits what's you record the last 20 years betting on letdown games? Has a team ever covered the spread while playing a letdown game?

Its not trolling if it's funny.

**Duke Fan** · 10-23-15, 03:38 PM

I just took Memphis team total over 21.5 for first half.
Like them -6.5 first half also

**texhooper** · 10-23-15, 03:40 PM

And as someone who has been in those Liberty Bowl stands and witnessed so much horrendous football over the years, it is awesome to see a bunch of people all agreeing that you just can't stop Memphis. It really is mind blowing, it's like I'm in bizzaro world

**THam12** · 10-23-15, 03:41 PM

Dane Evans and Co looking horrible on Offense last week without K Lucas.... And without offense, Tulsa has nothing. Cause their defense is putrid.

Backing them is tough to do.