[Statman]

I like it.....I am on this as well already too, can't believe they wouldnt go 4.5, they should make some back tonight on total sets in the womens game as that is always a toss up!

Total sets for Joker/Nadal over 3.5 is now sitting at -205 at 5dimes. Good luck in your plays.

[jjgold]

I am taking Nadal but no angle

The due theory..how can one guy keep beating a world class player?

[ApricotSinner32]

Undecided on this matchup as of now.

[mathdotcom]

sad to see such a boring player at #1

[PR9]

I am taking Nadal but no angle

The due theory..how can one guy keep beating a world class player?

Well they said the same thing before the Fed/Rafa match a few days ago. Federer hasn't beaten Nadal in a Grand Slam since 2007.

[jjgold]

Nadal said in an interview his game is better and he is going for more winners but he might not be ready to beat Joker so early in the season

nadal unsure of victory chances


Rafael Nadal feels Sunday's Australian Open final against defending champion Novak Djokovic may have come too soon for his off-season adjustments to take full effect.
While Djokovic received all the plaudits in 2011 for a remarkable year which saw him win three grand slam crowns, Nadal's efforts slipped under the radar.
The Spaniard took the French Open title and finished runner-up to the Serbian at Wimbledon and the US Open.
Those impressive achievements did not stop him attempting to add more aggression to his game during the winter break, though.
And while he is happy with how the tinkering has gone so far, he reckons it could be months before they are translated into better results.
He said: "I am trying to play a little bit more aggressive and hit more winners but the improvement I want is not complete.
"I haven't practised a lot with that so I need time to play with this aggressive plan during matches.
"I probably need a few more months and a few more tournaments."
And while Nadal leads his overall head-to-head record with Djokovic 16-13, the world number one has had the upper hand recently, winning the last six, all finals.
"I am happy with how I am doing," Nadal added, "but I don't know if it's going to be enough against him.
"I need to play a little better, in my opinion, to have a chance.
"But I think I am going the right way to compete against the best players in the world.
"I got here by beating the sixth best player (Tomas Berdych) and the number three (Roger Federer).
"So it's a fantastic way to start the season but now is another big, big test.
"I don't know if I am ready to win the match tomorrow but I am going to fight for it."
Djokovic comes into the clash under a cloud physically after struggling with his breathing during the quarter-final win over David Ferrer and his last-four defeat of Andy Murray.
And while Nadal was quick to suggest there could be an element of gamesmanship at play - "it is difficult to imagine he has these problems", he said - Djokovic claims his may have been hit by an allergy.
The Serbian said: "I've seen the doctor and I've talked with some people.
"I've also talked with a couple of players that have had little allergy problems this year in Australia for some reason, ones they didn't have in the last couple of years but they have had reactions this year.
"I suppose that's my problem."
And having witnessed Nadal's impressive four-set defeat of Federer in the semis, Djokovic accepts he will have to be at his best to retain the trophy and become just the fifth man to win three consecutive grand slam titles.
"It was a fantastic match from both of them," he added.
"It was an incredible effort from Rafa to come back and he played some incredible passing shots. That's why he's a champion and one of the best players to ever play this game.
"He never gives up, has a great fighting spirit and very few weaknesses.
"He's eager and motivated to win the title, like I am.
"It's unpredictable as to what's going to happen."

[gregm]

Nadal said in an interview his game is better and he is going for more winners but he might not be ready to beat Joker so early in the season

nadal unsure of victory chances


Rafael Nadal feels Sunday's Australian Open final against defending champion Novak Djokovic may have come too soon for his off-season adjustments to take full effect.
While Djokovic received all the plaudits in 2011 for a remarkable year which saw him win three grand slam crowns, Nadal's efforts slipped under the radar.
The Spaniard took the French Open title and finished runner-up to the Serbian at Wimbledon and the US Open.
Those impressive achievements did not stop him attempting to add more aggression to his game during the winter break, though.
And while he is happy with how the tinkering has gone so far, he reckons it could be months before they are translated into better results.
He said: "I am trying to play a little bit more aggressive and hit more winners but the improvement I want is not complete.
"I haven't practised a lot with that so I need time to play with this aggressive plan during matches.
"I probably need a few more months and a few more tournaments."
And while Nadal leads his overall head-to-head record with Djokovic 16-13, the world number one has had the upper hand recently, winning the last six, all finals.
"I am happy with how I am doing," Nadal added, "but I don't know if it's going to be enough against him.
"I need to play a little better, in my opinion, to have a chance.
"But I think I am going the right way to compete against the best players in the world.
"I got here by beating the sixth best player (Tomas Berdych) and the number three (Roger Federer).
"So it's a fantastic way to start the season but now is another big, big test.
"I don't know if I am ready to win the match tomorrow but I am going to fight for it."
Djokovic comes into the clash under a cloud physically after struggling with his breathing during the quarter-final win over David Ferrer and his last-four defeat of Andy Murray.
And while Nadal was quick to suggest there could be an element of gamesmanship at play - "it is difficult to imagine he has these problems", he said - Djokovic claims his may have been hit by an allergy.
The Serbian said: "I've seen the doctor and I've talked with some people.
"I've also talked with a couple of players that have had little allergy problems this year in Australia for some reason, ones they didn't have in the last couple of years but they have had reactions this year.
"I suppose that's my problem."
And having witnessed Nadal's impressive four-set defeat of Federer in the semis, Djokovic accepts he will have to be at his best to retain the trophy and become just the fifth man to win three consecutive grand slam titles.
"It was a fantastic match from both of them," he added.
"It was an incredible effort from Rafa to come back and he played some incredible passing shots. That's why he's a champion and one of the best players to ever play this game.
"He never gives up, has a great fighting spirit and very few weaknesses.
"He's eager and motivated to win the title, like I am.
"It's unpredictable as to what's going to happen."

Awesome article JJ, surprised to see Nadal to say some of those things. I put some spaces in between the quotes, easier to read. Definitely worth reading.

Nadal said in an interview his game is better and he is going for more winners but he might not be ready to beat Joker so early in the season

nadal unsure of victory chances


Rafael Nadal feels Sunday's Australian Open final against defending champion Novak Djokovic may have come too soon for his off-season adjustments to take full effect. While Djokovic received all the plaudits in 2011 for a remarkable year which saw him win three grand slam crowns, Nadal's efforts slipped under the radar.

The Spaniard took the French Open title and finished runner-up to the Serbian at Wimbledon and the US Open.

Those impressive achievements did not stop him attempting to add more aggression to his game during the winter break, though.

And while he is happy with how the tinkering has gone so far, he reckons it could be months before they are translated into better results.

He said: "I am trying to play a little bit more aggressive and hit more winners but the improvement I want is not complete.

"I haven't practised a lot with that so I need time to play with this aggressive plan during matches.

"I probably need a few more months and a few more tournaments."

And while Nadal leads his overall head-to-head record with Djokovic 16-13, the world number one has had the upper hand recently, winning the last six, all finals.

"I am happy with how I am doing," Nadal added, "but I don't know if it's going to be enough against him.
"I need to play a little better, in my opinion, to have a chance. "But I think I am going the right way to compete against the best players in the world.

"I got here by beating the sixth best player (Tomas Berdych) and the number three (Roger Federer).
"So it's a fantastic way to start the season but now is another big, big test.
"I don't know if I am ready to win the match tomorrow but I am going to fight for it."

Djokovic comes into the clash under a cloud physically after struggling with his breathing during the quarter-final win over David Ferrer and his last-four defeat of Andy Murray.
And while Nadal was quick to suggest there could be an element of gamesmanship at play - "it is difficult to imagine he has these problems", he said - Djokovic claims his may have been hit by an allergy.

The Serbian said: "I've seen the doctor and I've talked with some people.
"I've also talked with a couple of players that have had little allergy problems this year in Australia for some reason, ones they didn't have in the last couple of years but they have had reactions this year.
"I suppose that's my problem."

And having witnessed Nadal's impressive four-set defeat of Federer in the semis, Djokovic accepts he will have to be at his best to retain the trophy and become just the fifth man to win three consecutive grand slam titles.

"It was a fantastic match from both of them," he added.
"It was an incredible effort from Rafa to come back and he played some incredible passing shots. That's why he's a champion and one of the best players to ever play this game.

"He never gives up, has a great fighting spirit and very few weaknesses.
"He's eager and motivated to win the title, like I am.
"It's unpredictable as to what's going to happen."

[FourLengthsClear]

I think most of us would agree with that article if Djoker is at his best. Best on the evidence from his last two matches however, that is a big if. If Djokovic is prone to fatigue tomorrow, Nadal is the perfect guy to exploit that.

[Tsonga]

Great write up


He does seem slightly off but not much
He is still in the final

If Nadal loses he should quit

Can we get a count on how many players JJ has said should quit. How are you even posting on tennis? Every loss that goes badly for you ends up having you tell someone to quit. Ferrer being the last one. You do realize there is only 1 #1 at a time. Should the rest just quit?

[shari91]

Novak Djokovic is banking on his "mental edge" over Rafael Nadal to carry him to more Australian Open glory after suffering through a "physical crisis" to reach Sunday night's final.

The world No.1 overcame breathing difficulties and severe fatigue to put Andy Murray to the sword in an exhausting five-set semi-final that finished in the wee hours of Saturday morning.

Djokovic admitted to having consulted doctors in a desperate bid to diagnose his mystery "allergy" and was only hoping - rather than expecting - to be ready for his record-setting title showdown with Nadal.

For the first time in open-era history, the same two men will contest three consecutive grand slam finals after Djokovic denied Nadal in four-set deciders at Wimbledon and the US Open last year.

The powerhouse Serb also conquered Nadal in four Masters Series finals in 2011 to wrestle the top ranking from the Spaniard with six successive victories over the 10-times major winner.

"I know that I maybe have a mental edge because I've won six finals, the five or six times we played, in 2011 and I've had lots of success against him," Djokovic said after outlasting Murray 6-3 3-6 6-7 (4-7) 6-1 7-5 in their midnight cliffhanger.

"On the other hand, it's a new year. It's a new challenge. It's a different situation.

"He has maybe a day advantage over me for recovery and for getting ready for the finals.

"That's going to be my main priority and concern the next day and a half, to physically be able to perform my best and be ready to play five sets.

"If I am able to do that, then I can believe that I can win.

"Again, I'm repeating that physically I need to be fit."

Djokovic planned to sleep as much as possible and said he was unlikely to practise before the final, while his camp even quietly complained about Nadal having an extra day's rest.

Nadal, though, reminded the defending champion that he backed up to win the crown in similar circumstances three years ago after needing five hours and 14 minutes to beat fellow Spaniard Fernando Verdasco in the second semi.

"In 2009, I played longer than him in the semi-finals," Nadal said.

"I played more than five hours at very high intensity, too. I had only one day and Federer had two.

"I was recovered for the final, so I think you can say it's unfair, yes, but not crazy unfair.

"The US Open when you don't have day off between semi-finals and final, that's really unfair.

"If the match of yesterday happened in the US Open and the other semi-final is in straight sets, you are in big trouble for the final.

"Having one day off, I believe you are not in big trouble."

The vanquished Murray agreed, saying he "wouldn't be fancying his chances" if Djokovic had to take on Nadal on Saturday, but felt the extra day's rest would be hugely helpful.

[shari91]

Something else to keep in mind, and I think EP mentioned this in another thread, this will be the first time in 3yrs Nadal has even completed an Australian Open.

2009: won the title against Fed

2010: retired against Murray

2011: injured against Ferrer but refused to retire

This court is quite suited to Nadal's game. Whether that translates into a win or not, I don't know but Djokovic has never played him here. I'm just hoping for an awesome match - we've been out all day and finally had to come home because it is really so bloody hot and humid that you feel like you can't breathe. If Nadal wins it, I want it to be because he was the better player... not because Djoko can't breathe either.

[jjgold]

Shari dont forget Nadal lost to Joker on clay so that theory goes out the door

Joker is better on all surfaces vs Nadal

[shari91]

Shari dont forget Nadal lost to Joker on clay so that theory goes out the door

Joker is better on all surfaces vs Nadal

Ummm, he lost to Djoko in Rome and Madrid. The next tournament - the French (you know, that Grand Slam that's kind of important) - Djoko didn't even make the Final and Nadal won the whole thing.

Irrelevant to my post though: They have never played here.

[jjgold]

Shari................Joker never played him at French that is why he lost

Fed played an unreal match to beat Joker

Hun your know your stuff though

[shari91]

Shari................Joker never played him at French that is why he lost

Fed played an unreal match to beat Joker

Hun your know your stuff though

Ummm, Joker couldn't get past Fed, who couldn't get past Nadal. Not Nadal's fault he couldn't even make the bloody final. He can only play who's in front of him.

I said it earlier, this one is a coin flip. For all those with it enough to know that betting a side in the Super Bowl is just asking for trouble, just increase the dollars wagered on this match worldwide and then think of how sharp the lines are. As long as this sucker gets to over 3 sets, I'm happy.

[jjgold]

I hope Nadal wins and backing him based on your lean

[ApricotSinner32]

Ummm, Joker couldn't get past Fed, who couldn't get past Nadal. Not Nadal's fault he couldn't even make the bloody final. He can only play who's in front of him.

I said it earlier, this one is a coin flip. For all those with it enough to know that betting a side in the Super Bowl is just asking for trouble, just increase the dollars wagered on this match worldwide and then think of how sharp the lines are. As long as this sucker gets to over 3 sets, I'm happy.

Calling it a coinflip and than talking about how sharp the lines is with a -148/+139 line

[DiggityDaggityDo]

I'm going to try to stay up to watch this shit. But holy fukk i'm gonna be drunk at 12:30am

[King Mayan]

I'm going to try to stay up to watch this shit. But holy fukk i'm gonna be drunk at 12:30am

make a video..

Should I pound Nadal then??

[shari91]

Calling it a coinflip and than talking about how sharp the lines is with a -148/+139 line

Coinflip is a term Patty... you should know that by now considering the plays you made in that contest with JJ. I was referring to the fact that none of us know how Djoko will pull up, none of us know if Nadal will still be able to get 60% of his serve in as he has throughout the rest of the tournament, etc... We're all just speculating. The lines on a Slam in the Final are the sharpest that they'll ever be throughout a tennis season. So for anyone saying they have a significant edge in this match - considering everyone is reviewing the same info, including those who only troll the Tennis Forum 4 times a year - they are incorrect. Everyone's just taking a guess regardless of how many stats they have to back their case up. GL.

[ApricotSinner32]

Yes coin flip is a term for a 50/50 proposition shari. I would expect such an educated woman as yourself to know this.

[jjgold]

Its -141/+138 at Betfair

[shari91]

Yes coin flip is a term for a 50/50 proposition shari. I would expect such an educated woman as yourself to know this.

Yes I know what it means, thank you. I was referring to it in the context of the lines that are posted for this match. Placing a bet on either of these players - as always, but especially now in a Final of a Slam - is making an assumption that you have an edge with one of these lines. In order to do that, you have to decide which one and in that regard, I believe it's a coinflip as the market will be more efficient now than in any other match leading up to the Final. That edge simply doesn't exist today so we're all merely guessing. I wasn't referring to PK lines. Sorry if I wasn't clear enough for you or my wording threw you off.

[DiggityDaggityDo]

make a video..

Should I pound Nadal then??

Pound Joker, mayan!!! I fukkin did!!! Lets get this!!!

[ApricotSinner32]

Apology accepted.

[shari91]

Apology accepted.

Are you making a bet on this one?

The more I've been reading today online, the more it throws me off everything. Too many armchair analysts, including myself, who are hoping they have a clue. Throw in the stats and it becomes a mess.

[mathdotcom]

shari this is a man's forum so I suggest you take a walk

[ApricotSinner32]

Obviously never playing joker as I don't bet favs. I will start to look at the match to consider if nadal is worth a play or not (imo) of course.

[PR9]

ARTICLE:

"Nadal changes game for Djokovic – but is it enough?"

http://uk.eurosport.yahoo.com/blogs/...110131640.html

Novak Djokovic has dominated Rafael Nadal in recent times, but the Spanish great has tweaked his game in a clear strategy to get the better of his Serbian rival.

Another Grand Slam final, another Djokovic-Nadal clash - last year this duo did battle in six important finals with the Serb winning all of them, but can the Spaniard snap his losing streak?
In this blog I will look at how important this match is to Nadal, the elements of his game that Djokovic has been exploiting, and how Rafa has worked on these aspects at the Australian Open with this final in mind.

Last-chance saloon for Rafa?
The Majorcan is not used to failure. But he has lost six big finals in a row to Nole, who last season was pretty much unstoppable.
This final is of tremendous importance for Nadal. His path is constantly troubled by Nole and it's frustrating for him. I'm convinced that if this pattern continues Rafa could lose what has made him so strong throughout his career: his unwavering belief, desire, determination and passion.

Given how much effort he has put into getting past the final hurdle, these repeated blows could well traumatise Nadal. This problem needs to be solved quickly, so Nadal can prove to himself that he can stay the master of the game.

Why has Nadal failed?
There are several reasons why Rafael is struggling against Novak. Here are the main ones:

Nadal's serve, especially his second serve, lacks depth and power; Djokovic, meanwhile, boasts the best returning stats on second serve. Throughout 2011, Nole won the most points on his opponents' second serve. Against Rafa, he's "having fun" when he takes these chances, and always starts these points as the offensive player.

The Spaniard, when challenged like this, plays short and gets punished.
Nadal's general depth of shots is also to blame for his losses against Djokovic. While most players don't take advantage when Nadal shortens his shots, the Serb is outstanding in the way he steps inside the court to take the ball early - taking time off Nadal who, when attacked, plays even shorter.

When Rafa is the attacking one, he doesn't generate enough power to hurt Nole. The Serb is one of the best retrievers in the world and can to go from defence to offence on any ball that doesn't have enough power. This happens a lot in their battles.

What is at stake in this final?
The Serb certainly has the mental edge. Six finals played against the Majorcan, six victories. The numbers tell it all. Furthermore, Nole nearly saw himself lose against Andy Murray, like in the last US Open semi-final against Federer. Rather than fatiguing him, Nole will now feel even more invincible.

Rafa broke down mentally for the first time in his life in a Masters 1000 final against the Serb. He acknowledged it. But I feel he has bounced back since January and regained his legendary fighting spirit. He's ready, now more than ever.

Physically, both players have huge qualities. They both spent a lot of time on court in their semi-final. Even when Nadal has had an extra day off, Novak has previously shown himself to be fresher in their fights.
I have to give a little advantage to the Serb because of this. But Rafa has searched for solutions in two areas that have been troubling his game.

What has Nadal changed with Djokovic in mind?
Nadal has kept 70% of his first serves in play throughout this Australian Open - this shows he is dealing with his aforementioned second-serve problem by seeking to minimise the need to use it; previously he was at 57% of first serves in during his matches against Novak, a stat the Serb exploited ruthlessly last season. By reducing the need to use his second serve Nadal is protecting himself from Nole's attacks on it: Rafa has been preparing for this match against Djokovic. The only issue is that Rafa's best serve - the slice he often uses on deuce and advantage - plays directly to Nole's best shot: his backhand.

Regarding his shot efficiency, Nadal has added some weight on his racquet in order to change his swing weight (from 308 to 314): this means he can get more power and more length on his shots, reducing the shortening and power problem I talked about. He wants to make the Serb move backwards and to be more decisive on attacking balls so he can't turn defence into offence so easily.
Finally, game-plan wise, Rafa has to stop avoiding the diagonal with his backhand on to Nole's forehand. Indeed, it's when he changes to the diagonal shot that he gets punished by the Serbian. He has to make Novak go backwards, forcing him to use his forehand to dictate the game. Will he do it? I'm not sure as he has not had to so far, but I think so.

Personally, I'm convinced Djokovic will play a great match, like he always does against Nadal.
But this time Rafa has a new plan, one he has executed throughout this tournament, and I think he is readier than ever.

[hels]

Yes I know what it means, thank you. I was referring to it in the context of the lines that are posted for this match. Placing a bet on either of these players - as always, but especially now in a Final of a Slam - is making an assumption that you have an edge with one of these lines. In order to do that, you have to decide which one and in that regard, I believe it's a coinflip as the market will be more efficient now than in any other match leading up to the Final. That edge simply doesn't exist today so we're all merely guessing. I wasn't referring to PK lines. Sorry if I wasn't clear enough for you or my wording threw you off.

You don't sound like a girl from TBay.

[FourLengthsClear]

Its -141/+138 at Betfair

Laying Djoker @ 1.72 is eqivalent to backing Nadal at +139.

[shari91]

shari this is a man's forum so I suggest you take a walk

And yet you're here. In a thread about tennis

Obviously never playing joker as I don't bet favs. I will start to look at the match to consider if nadal is worth a play or not (imo) of course.

FLC posted in another thread that money's been coming in on Nadal on Betfair and the line has dropped 2 cents and he expected Pinny to follow suit so it might be a good time to grab him if you're debating it before the other books adjust.

[sweethook]

from what i read shari you and i like nadal 3-1 or 3-2 ?

[shari91]

You don't sound like a girl from TBay.

What assumptions would you have about a female from TBay who hasn't lived there in 12 years?

[WvGambler]

And yet you're here. In a thread about tennis



FLC posted in another thread that money's been coming in on Nadal on Betfair and the line has dropped 2 cents and he expected Pinny to follow suit so it might be a good time to grab him if you're debating it before the other books adjust.

Is Nadal where you're putting your money, my sweet Australian rose?