1. #1
    John Ryan
    John Ryan's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-20-10
    Posts: 2,428
    Betpoints: 3250

    Dear John.... Ask the expert: John Ryan's Mail Box

    Dear John: Ask the expert

    Some of you will already know me from my threads here on the forum and from my articles on SBRforum that have covered all major sports, For those of you that don’t; I have 18 years experience handicapping major US sports (NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL and college). I have a proprietary sports betting database and simulator which I use, in conjunction with my own sports knowledge, to make graded plays that range from the foundation 5* Titan picks, to the less frequent 10* graded Titans, and then the very rare 20* Titan plays that on average have hit about 75% ATS.

    I hope I have shown that I am not your average tout just pumping winning records like “5-1 right now when the moon is in virgo and the grass is green – get my next pick; it’s guaranteed to win” and that I actually am capable of losing, but that I love what I do and I love sports, and sports psychology and I like to share the knowledge that I have built and the opinions that myself and my neural network simulator produce.

    So, in line with that I am going to be starting a weekly “Dear John” – and yes, I expect you guys will throw all kinds of crazy questions at me and if there is enough material to work with I will do a more comedy style show with Loshak on video where we will answer these, and I might even show you guys my simulator! Well, maybe not the simulator, but I want you guys to ask me sports questions, sports handicapping questions, current sports events/announcements/headlines, and anything that we can have a good debate about on the thread. As happened with the highly successful NFL thread the exchange of all of our ideas and experiences will make us better for it.

    To be involved just post your questions (one per week) right here in this thread (I will be starting a new one each Monday and we will close it on Wednesday) and then I will pick the best of them and pen my responses in an article that I will put up on SBR forum on Thursday. I know from my threads many of you had a bunch of sports questions, betting questions and we even got into financials (I was a Chief Currency Strategist on Wall Street in a past life), so I hope this is going to be a really great and useful tool for us all.

    Justin7 – I know you disapprove of betting systems so I look forward to you giving me your best question and Loshak, how many shows have we done? You must have something good to ask me, so I look forward to reading all the questions in this thread and answering them on Thursday and I hope you all enjoy reading!

    John Ryan.

  2. #2
    jjaycuny
    jjaycuny's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 07-01-11
    Posts: 1,617
    Betpoints: 9122

    Thanks for making the thread John

  3. #3
    jbizzle
    jbizzle's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 12-22-09
    Posts: 226
    Betpoints: 648

    Yes, Thank you very much John for this!

  4. #4
    chief42
    chief42's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-06-10
    Posts: 315
    Betpoints: 2481

    Thank You John, looking forward to the discussion.

  5. #5
    Chi_archie
    GASPING FOR AIR
    Chi_archie's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 07-22-08
    Posts: 63,130
    Betpoints: 2260

    John in these times, do you think there are ways for rec gamblers to uitlize some of the originally wong teaser principles?

  6. #6
    FreeFall
    FreeFall's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-20-08
    Posts: 3,365
    Betpoints: 2391

    How much did you pay to get this service in line with SBR?

    Do you realize how stupid you sound when you say you have some subset of plays that hit 75% of the time?

  7. #7
    excel
    unapproved
    excel's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-25-10
    Posts: 4,270

    Guy isn't even pro, this might be fake.

  8. #8
    baskets
    Poster of the Month Twice a Month
    baskets's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-24-11
    Posts: 11,691

    Question:

    What is the world record for jizz blasting in terms of distance?

    I'd like the answer in "feet". I am American.

    (But you may provide the answer in "meters" to show your ability to do some mathymatikal calculations... for instance, like your quick on the draw ability to convert from American to Decimal odds.)

  9. #9
    RudyRuetigger
    Leave of absence until March Madness
    RudyRuetigger's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-24-10
    Posts: 64,799
    Betpoints: 53

    You have 18 years of experience, your top plays hit 75%. You have databases, simulators and every other fukkin thing under the sun needed. So, if this system isn't easy to copy, why aren't you living like a king and giving your plays out for free after you have put the max amount you want on a game?

  10. #10
    mrmarket
    Update your status
    mrmarket's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-26-10
    Posts: 4,953

    Why would you leave the currency desk at a bank/boutique shop to become a sports bettor instead of just retiring on fat bonuses?

  11. #11
    FourLengthsClear
    King of the Idiots
    FourLengthsClear's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 12-29-10
    Posts: 3,808
    Betpoints: 508

    Quote Originally Posted by John Ryan View Post
    5* Titan picks, to the less frequent 10* graded Titans, and then the very rare 20* Titan plays that on average have hit about 75% ATS.

    I hope I have shown that I am not your average tout
    Nomination(s):
    This post was nominated 2 times . To view the nominated thread please click here. People who nominated: Cookie Monster, and Allure

  12. #12
    baskets
    Poster of the Month Twice a Month
    baskets's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-24-11
    Posts: 11,691

    still has not answered my question. I will assume your penis is therefore small.
    Nomination(s):
    This post was nominated 1 time . To view the nominated thread please click here. People who nominated: excel

  13. #13
    JohnAnthony
    JohnAnthony's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-30-09
    Posts: 5,110
    Betpoints: 12

    Quote Originally Posted by RudyRuetigger View Post
    You have 18 years of experience, your top plays hit 75%. You have databases, simulators and every other fukkin thing under the sun needed. So, if this system isn't easy to copy, why aren't you living like a king and giving your plays out for free after you have put the max amount you want on a game?
    I'd like to hear the answer for this as well.

  14. #14
    BIGDAY
    angelman.org
    BIGDAY's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 02-17-10
    Posts: 48,241
    Betpoints: 24854

    Guy doesn't even check in...

    No point to thread pal.

  15. #15
    raidersfan
    raidersfan's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-13-07
    Posts: 1,647
    Betpoints: 19

    Quote Originally Posted by baskets View Post
    Question:

    What is the world record for jizz blasting in terms of distance?

    I'd like the answer in "feet". I am American.

    (But you may provide the answer in "meters" to show your ability to do some mathymatikal calculations... for instance, like your quick on the draw ability to convert from American to Decimal odds.)

  16. #16
    dinaro7
    super player
    dinaro7's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 12-06-09
    Posts: 888

    Quote Originally Posted by mrmarket View Post
    Why would you leave the currency desk at a bank/boutique shop to become a sports bettor instead of just retiring on fat bonuses?
    r u stupid he said in a different life meaning reincarnation you dumb ass

  17. #17
    Barnes & Whine
    Punch through the media!
    Barnes & Whine's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-29-11
    Posts: 3,103
    Betpoints: 722

    Those are some great questions guys...


    It's kind of like when a teacher in a college class asks to to begin a discussion on a topic that you don't give a rat's ass about except you have to bs it because you want to pass the class..but in this case we actually get to discuss something that we are interested and receive some reasonable advice about it, so I am going to start off the thread with a question that actually might make some of us some money in the end!

    John: I would like you to break down the total for Super Bowl XLVI, which is sitting at 55 in most offshore books. My question: Is there significant value on the under and worth wagering this total?

    Could you please discuss recent trends in super bowl totals specifically and similarities or differences between the 2008 super bowl between the Pats and Giants that also was around 55. I would like to go ahead and say that I like the under right now because of how both defenses are playing and how the Giants usually have a good game plan for the Patriots like they did earlier in the season. Is it safe to assume that the Giants will be a man to man coverage for most of the game and can we expect a similar point total for the Patriots as we saw when they played the Giants earlier? Also I think we could see a slow start for both teams who may run the ball in the first half and try to figure out the coverage schemes before turning the passing game loose and try to sneak in some quick scores late in the game. As we all know, it's all about who can score on that last pivotal drive with the clock ticking down and Brady and Manning are both great no huddle QBs. Also we have to take into account how well teams put up points in Lucas Oil Stadium..

    Im really looking forward to hearing your comments and betting advice on the total...Thanks John!

    B&W
    Last edited by Barnes & Whine; 01-24-12 at 03:02 AM.

  18. #18
    Roxxyfish
    finally i am on skype
    Roxxyfish's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 06-26-09
    Posts: 12,066

    tout service loooool gfy

  19. #19
    thechaoz
    2019 SBRs Toughest Poster
    thechaoz's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-23-09
    Posts: 12,155
    Betpoints: 35902

    Cool I think

  20. #20
    mikejamm
    mikejamm's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 08-24-09
    Posts: 10,844
    Betpoints: 1091

    Ok, I'll throw a few out here too.

    You stated that you use a "proprietary sports betting database and simulator", can you explain what variables, ie. stats, etc, that you use for each particular type of sport that you're making your graded plays on? Take college basketball for example, I'm guessing there could be a hundred different variables realated to each game and then when you factor in how many different colleges and games are being played on any given night, where do you find that edge which tells you one particular game is the one to bet on and not another?

    Also, with multiple sporting events going on simultaneously, like football,(even though we only have the super bowl left), NBA and college hoops, and hockey. Is it better to focus your time, energy, and reseach to one particular sport, rather than trying to make graded plays for a bunch of different ones? Does your simulator do better at one type of sport than another based on the available information you're putting into it? Thanks

  21. #21
    aussieH
    Update your status
    aussieH's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-04-11
    Posts: 1,188
    Betpoints: 7720

    Hey John. Tough crowd. Have asked before but you have not replied. What is your take on direction of economy. Is it time to but. Particularly with a focus on resources.


    With your sports could it easily be applied to other sports. Eg afl cricket

  22. #22
    Justin7
    Justin7's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-31-06
    Posts: 8,577
    Betpoints: 1506

    Dear John,

    Why do you release 5, 10 and 20* plays, instead of 1 to 4 * plays?

    How much do you advise betting on your 20* plays?
    Points Awarded:

    SlickRick1382 gave Justin7 2 SBR Point(s) for this post.


  23. #23
    Cookie Monster
    Large moneylines
    Cookie Monster's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 12-05-08
    Posts: 2,249
    Betpoints: 9852

    Dear John -

    Why every average tout claim:

    1.- Having many years of experience handicapping
    2.- His best bets hits 75%,
    3.- Have a propietary database and a neural network simulator

    I think you know the psychology of such touts, so you can enlighten us on why thery are so unoriginal.

  24. #24
    John Ryan
    John Ryan's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-20-10
    Posts: 2,428
    Betpoints: 3250

    Just to clarify, I will be active in this thread daily, answering as many questions as possible, sharing my thoughts and doing my best to add to the conversation. I will be selecting the questions I feel deserve the most attention and cover them in my weekly column on SBRforum to be released Thursday afternoons. I will post the link to the article in this thread.

    There have already been some constructive questions so I will be back to start answering them. I will also provide a personal background of my career and why I am choosing to do this. I do ask one requirement and that is to respect everyone, who posts on this thread, and to refrain from personal attacks. There will be differing of opinions and some very strong views on many topics and passion and pride can run very high as a result. Present these views and opinions in a professional manner and they will be acknowledged and they will be respected in turn. Thanks.

  25. #25
    RyanLeafOfBets
    Team Dexter
    RyanLeafOfBets's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-03-10
    Posts: 8,164
    Betpoints: 191

    John seems like a good guy, very informative from everything i've read that he's posted. I love how people are always negative and take any chance to bash someone through their keyboard that they get.

  26. #26
    SlickRick1382
    If hustlin' is a must; be Sosa, not Tony
    SlickRick1382's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-15-11
    Posts: 3,838
    Betpoints: 11517

    Quote Originally Posted by Justin7 View Post
    Dear John, Why do you release 5, 10 and 20* plays, instead of 1 to 4 * plays? How much do you advise betting on your 20* plays?
    Because it's nicer to be up 100+ units with a 5-10-20 system than just 40 on a 1-4 system. More appeasing to the eye

    Never big a supporter of people with plays outside of an average 1-2 unit type system with occasional 3-5's

  27. #27
    Kindred
    Bitcoin=Freedom
    Kindred's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-09-08
    Posts: 2,901
    Betpoints: 473

    Do you still trade currencies at all? Is it a good idea to short the Euro or is the trade too crowded? If one was going to short the euro do you have any suggestions, tips or insights you could share? What are the odds it goes to parity with the dollar? (or your opinion on the chances it goes to parity)
    As for sports do you bet your picks and if so where do you place your bets, offshore or Vegas? If offshore are you limited to the books that still take Americans or do you have the luxury of shopping for the best line at any offshore book?

  28. #28
    justwinthisone
    justwinthisone's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-27-10
    Posts: 1,604
    Betpoints: 4980

    what factors do you think is the most important in cappping a game? also how much do you weigh historical stats for current games? how far back do you think is relivent? for example can you look back at past giants/pats superbowl game a few years ago? i would think the game that they played this year would be the best game to compare but everyone wants to talk about the superbowl game

  29. #29
    excel
    unapproved
    excel's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-25-10
    Posts: 4,270

    buried this guy so much they un-stickied the thread from top. we win men.

  30. #30
    John Ryan
    John Ryan's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-20-10
    Posts: 2,428
    Betpoints: 3250

    posting plays on the other threads. Have three NCAAB and TWO NBA 5* Titans. I will be back.. I certainly want to give you a bit of background of course.

  31. #31
    griz
    FEB 2012 POTM
    griz's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-27-11
    Posts: 3,647
    Betpoints: 607

    Dear John,

    Do you like top or bottom?

    Thanks,
    Griz

  32. #32
    Calvani
    Calvani's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-20-11
    Posts: 37

    Added Value in Totals Discrepancies

    John,

    In regards to wagering on Basketball and Football, is there value to be found in discrepancies between the game total and the sum of the two team totals? If so, what is the value and does how does it vary between the two sports?

    For example:
    Team A Total = 28.5 pts
    Team B Total = 21 pts
    Game Total = 52 pts
    Point Discrepancy = 2.5

    Thanks,
    Calvani

  33. #33
    allin1
    Update your status
    allin1's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-07-11
    Posts: 4,555

    Dear John,

    Will you also answer fx trading related questions in this thread?

  34. #34
    John Ryan
    John Ryan's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-20-10
    Posts: 2,428
    Betpoints: 3250

    Quote Originally Posted by Barnes & Whine View Post
    Those are some great questions guys...


    It's kind of like when a teacher in a college class asks to to begin a discussion on a topic that you don't give a rat's ass about except you have to bs it because you want to pass the class..but in this case we actually get to discuss something that we are interested and receive some reasonable advice about it, so I am going to start off the thread with a question that actually might make some of us some money in the end!

    John: I would like you to break down the total for Super Bowl XLVI, which is sitting at 55 in most offshore books. My question: Is there significant value on the under and worth wagering this total?

    Could you please discuss recent trends in super bowl totals specifically and similarities or differences between the 2008 super bowl between the Pats and Giants that also was around 55. I would like to go ahead and say that I like the under right now because of how both defenses are playing and how the Giants usually have a good game plan for the Patriots like they did earlier in the season. Is it safe to assume that the Giants will be a man to man coverage for most of the game and can we expect a similar point total for the Patriots as we saw when they played the Giants earlier? Also I think we could see a slow start for both teams who may run the ball in the first half and try to figure out the coverage schemes before turning the passing game loose and try to sneak in some quick scores late in the game. As we all know, it's all about who can score on that last pivotal drive with the clock ticking down and Brady and Manning are both great no huddle QBs. Also we have to take into account how well teams put up points in Lucas Oil Stadium..

    Im really looking forward to hearing your comments and betting advice on the total...Thanks John!

    B&W
    This is all very good! I am preparing the answers and the play on this game That will be released Thursday a week. Please be patient, but this is an obvious excellent question.

  35. #35
    John Ryan
    John Ryan's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-20-10
    Posts: 2,428
    Betpoints: 3250

    Quote Originally Posted by Calvani View Post
    John,

    In regards to wagering on Basketball and Football, is there value to be found in discrepancies between the game total and the sum of the two team totals? If so, what is the value and does how does it vary between the two sports?

    For example:
    Team A Total = 28.5 pts
    Team B Total = 21 pts
    Game Total = 52 pts
    Point Discrepancy = 2.5

    Thanks,
    Calvani
    I'll start with this one, but I intend to get to everyone as time permits tonight and into Thursday. A neural network simulator that I built for the purpose of currency trading does not assign specific values to teams or that a line is off by a specific amount. Generally, I get graded plays that have a high probability of exceeding the point spread by 7 points or more. So, over the years, I often see a turnover go against play and think that ok. 'EVEN' now. or if it is my favor the odds go up exponentially that I have the right side. That is a minor example and one that only is noticed after the play is made. The simulator goes through 15 years of 'box score' data and essentially learns from that data and then applies it to the current conditions of the game overall and of course the specific teams. Back-propagation is the most commonly used technique for what many call data mining. My mode will adjust to the evolution of the season and the game. So, for example, it has increased it's weighting on passing more than running overall in the NFL. Yet, for teams like philadelphia, Houston, and Denver it adjust counter to that, but not near enough to effect the overall change in the game we saw this season. We will get into some math and show some examples. So, to answer the question, it is not that easy to simply take two averages and add or subtract to get a value play. And by the way, Peter Loshak and I abhor the word VALUE when used in sports handicapping. Remember, there is so-called value in a play because they have vastly under performed public expectations or they are playing a team that is on a roll and improving with each passing week. Enough for now. But, thanks for all the questions.

12 Last
Top