1. 01-20-12 01:03 AM #1
    goldendome23
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    Anybody just live bet and hedge all day?

    Just curious if anybody watches the game and sees how the flow of it goes and live bets then hedges it. Wonder if anybody does that on the regular and turns a decent profit.
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  2. 01-20-12 01:19 AM #2
    Domestic
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    I do it mainly to try and break even. It can end horribly if you get middled.
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  3. 01-20-12 01:19 AM #3
    warriorfan707
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    I would imagine these types of players are not exactly welcomed by the books with open arms.
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  4. 01-20-12 01:22 AM #4
    goldendome23
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    Yeah I can't imagine books would want this obviously. I mean like last night I had Mavs ML at +250 then at a point I could of got Clips at
    -130. Can't lose in a situation like that can only break even. Didn't know if anybody did that frequently.
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  5. 01-20-12 01:59 AM #5
    LVHerbie
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    Quote Originally Posted by warriorfan707 View Post
    I would imagine these types of players are not exactly welcomed by the books with open arms.
    Why? For most it means they make two -ev bets rather then just one...
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  6. 01-20-12 02:02 AM #6
    Lazy-Man
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    I wait until halftime to see the 2H spread. These oddsmakers are damn good at the 2H lines and I live bet accordingly.
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  7. 01-20-12 02:06 AM #7
    FourLengthsClear
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    Quote Originally Posted by LVHerbie View Post
    Why? For most it means they make two -ev bets rather then just one...
    Exactly.

    It takes the same qualities in terms of assessing value and exercising discipline as the Pre-Game bet does. If the team you bet at +250 goes down 16-6 early on, when is the right time to trade out for a loss? Or do you just let it ride and hope they come back?

    Most will do the latter meaning their average winning play is significantly smaller than the average losing play.
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  8. 01-20-12 02:09 AM #8
    Ernie Mccracken
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    Doubling your losses with two -EV bets instead of one. Yeah I bet the books hate that.
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  9. 01-20-12 02:27 AM #9
    warriorfan707
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    Quote Originally Posted by LVHerbie View Post
    Why? For most it means they make two -ev bets rather then just one...
    You said it yourself. Most.

    If one was doing it professionally they would be frowned upon Im sure. And its definitely possible.
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  10. 01-20-12 03:08 AM #10
    LVHerbie
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    Quote Originally Posted by warriorfan707 View Post
    You said it yourself. Most.

    If one was doing it professionally they would be frowned upon Im sure. And its definitely possible.
    And if you consistently beat books on their full game lines you likely are going to get frowned at as well... Unfortunately both examples don't have much relevance to the fact that most aren't going to be successful at either pursuit and simply increasing (or decreasing) the number of your bets doesn't change the expected value of each individual bet...
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  11. 01-20-12 03:10 AM #11
    LVHerbie
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    ...
    Last edited by LVHerbie; 01-20-12 at 03:10 AM. Reason: ...
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  12. 01-20-12 03:11 AM #12
    The Kraken
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    LV and FLC covered hedging. Live betting is heavily juiced and only meant to play on your emotions. Major -ev. Guys win a few live bets and think they're the next coming or they've found the secret to winning. It really plays into the instant gratification generation.
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  13. 01-20-12 03:53 AM #13
    LVHerbie
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Kraken View Post
    LV and FLC covered hedging. Live betting is heavily juiced and only meant to play on your emotions. Major -ev. Guys win a few live bets and think they're the next coming or they've found the secret to winning. It really plays into the instant gratification generation.
    You can find value live betting and personally (with a bankroll that is rather depleted for various non-gambling related reasons) almost all my sports bets are on based in some derivative away from full game sides or totals because markets such as live betting are actually much easier to beat... This is reflected in the higher juice you mentioned (along lower limits and the willingness of some books to quickly boot you, as warrior alluded to, if you are beating them at all)... Still (outside of some really soft spots I'm not going to discuss) just like full game betting you have to very carefully pick your battles...

    Regardless just watching the flow of the game and trying to time hedging bets isn't going to cut it. If you need a more articulate explanation see FourLength's post above...
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  14. 01-20-12 05:57 AM #14
    k13
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    Quote Originally Posted by LVHerbie View Post
    Why? For most it means they make two -ev bets rather then just one...
    Taking + money on both sides is -ev????

    I guess you were probably referring to the spread.
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  15. 01-20-12 06:10 AM #15
    jjgold
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    Only real low juice live betting is at Betfair mainly for soccer, tennis and any usa sports that is live on UK TV
    Pinnacle is not bad but its not true live betting as they put lines up on stoppages usually

    SBOBET is ok for live betting but soccer only

    The rest of the books is just a novelty bet
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  16. 01-20-12 06:35 AM #16
    robmpink
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    I can't even sit and watch an entire game.
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  17. 01-20-12 06:55 AM #17
    LVHerbie
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    Quote Originally Posted by k13 View Post
    Taking + money on both sides is -ev????

    I guess you were probably referring to the spread.
    Unless you put them it at same time or can predict the future how are you going to know if you going to get the opportunity to scalp/hedge out?

    And even if you get the opportunity unless the second bet is also +EV you are still making a mistake...
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  18. 01-20-12 07:13 AM #18
    FourLengthsClear
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    Quote Originally Posted by k13 View Post
    Taking + money on both sides is -ev????

    I guess you were probably referring to the spread.
    It can be, yes.

    If you took +250 at the start of the game but the fair/correct price was +270; and then
    Took +110 on the other side during live betting but the fair price was +120.

    Both individual bets had -EV regardless of the fact that you are guaranteed a profit.
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  19. 01-20-12 07:14 AM #19
    LVHerbie
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    Quote Originally Posted by robmpink View Post
    I can't even sit and watch an entire game.
    With line services being pretty worthless for live betting if a game is more then background noise you probably need a few more outs...
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  20. 01-20-12 07:34 AM #20
    ebbearsfb1
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    It works best if you like the dog to win out right... for example I killed bowl games with it... capital one. Neb was up early was able to get sc at plus 150 live..... ok state and stanford... was able to get. Ok state plus 300 .... and had stanford plus 159... how is that -even? If I'm able to assure money in my pocket ill do it all day long
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  21. 01-20-12 07:39 AM #21
    ebbearsfb1
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    You really need to watch the flow of the game and have a feel for the teams.. teams to do it the right... at one point during the sugar bowl michigan was plus 185 and va tech plus 220... same thing wvu was plus 220 and clemson 330... can be profitable if you have a clue and get the breaks your way early
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  22. 01-20-12 07:58 AM #22
    FourLengthsClear
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    Quote Originally Posted by ebbearsfb1 View Post
    It works best if you like the dog to win out right... for example I killed bowl games with it... capital one. Neb was up early was able to get sc at plus 150 live..... ok state and stanford... was able to get. Ok state plus 300 .... and had stanford plus 159... how is that -even? If I'm able to assure money in my pocket ill do it all day long
    -EV = negative expected value (not -even).

    It simply means that the implied probability of the odds taken on a wager are lower than the true probability of the bet winning.

    I am glad you "killed it" during those games and can't say whether they were goods (+EV) bets or not but I can say with certainty that hedging for a profit without regard of whether the second (hedging) bet has value in it's own right is a losing strategy in the long run.
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  23. 01-20-12 08:15 AM #23
    ebbearsfb1
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    How is it losing if I'm getting 2 plays at plus money ? And I'm assuring a profit... was able to cash out from those live bets ill take it all day as will most posters here
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  24. 01-20-12 08:31 AM #24
    jjgold
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    Quote Originally Posted by ebbearsfb1 View Post
    You really need to watch the flow of the game and have a feel for the teams.. teams to do it the right... at one point during the sugar bowl michigan was plus 185 and va tech plus 220... same thing wvu was plus 220 and clemson 330... can be profitable if you have a clue and get the breaks your way early
    Yes but that does not happen all the time, score swings maybe or tight games a plus
    Many people lose everything chasing live lines
    Agree you need to watch the game to live bet and you could pick off some nice stuff
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  25. 01-20-12 08:35 AM #25
    k13
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    Quote Originally Posted by LVHerbie View Post
    Unless you put them it at same time or can predict the future how are you going to know if you going to get the opportunity to scalp/hedge out?

    And even if you get the opportunity unless the second bet is also +EV you are still making a mistake...
    If we could predict the future we'd be all winners.
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  26. 01-20-12 08:38 AM #26
    Glitch
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    Quote Originally Posted by FourLengthsClear View Post
    -EV = negative expected value (not -even).

    It simply means that the implied probability of the odds taken on a wager are lower than the true probability of the bet winning.

    I am glad you "killed it" during those games and can't say whether they were goods (+EV) bets or not but I can say with certainty that hedging for a profit without regard of whether the second (hedging) bet has value in it's own right is a losing strategy in the long run.
    while i respect your views in general, i feel like your perception of this concept is off. if you ONLY play dogs that are very +ev from the start then this is an excellent strategy. buy out or let it ride at your own discretion.

    it seems that you are failing to acknowledge the frequency with which these favorable opportunities manifest.
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  27. 01-20-12 08:44 AM #27
    FourLengthsClear
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    Quote Originally Posted by Glitch View Post
    while i respect your views in general, i feel like your perception of this concept is off. if you ONLY play dogs that are very +ev from the start then this is an excellent strategy. buy out or let it ride at your own discretion.

    it seems that you are failing to acknowledge the frequency with which these favorable opportunities manifest.
    If you can do that great. Just let the bets ride (or hedge) and retire to your yacht!
    Can you show me a dog for tonight that has very +EV?
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  28. 01-20-12 08:45 AM #28
    ebbearsfb1
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    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post
    Yes but that does not happen all the time, score swings maybe or tight games a plus
    Many people lose everything chasing live lines
    Agree you need to watch the game to live bet and you could pick off some nice stuff
    Good post... for example ok state was minus 180 pre game... to get them in game at plus 250 is a steal..... you know stanford wasn't going to stop them all game and still could get stanford plus 158 at half...good in nba when. Dogs get a big lead... few weeks ago bulls pre game minus 550... during the game when they were shooting awful they were plus 200 or something... its a must to watch the game to live bet... example I had wvu plus 220 vs clemson and there was never a thread to hedge out of it
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  29. 01-20-12 08:48 AM #29
    k13
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    Quote Originally Posted by FourLengthsClear View Post
    If you can do that great. Just let the bets ride (or hedge) and retire to your yacht!
    Can you show me a dog for tonight that has very +EV?
    Youngstown
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  30. 01-20-12 08:53 AM #30
    ebbearsfb1
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    Who is to say who is in saying this not a +ev dog or -ev dog... everyone is gonna have a different opinion on a game
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  31. 01-20-12 08:54 AM #31
    k13
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    Quote Originally Posted by ebbearsfb1 View Post
    Who is to say who is in saying this not a +ev dog or -ev dog... everyone is gonna have a different opinion on a game
    If it wins it was +, if it loses it was -

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  32. 01-20-12 08:55 AM #32
    Glitch
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    Quote Originally Posted by FourLengthsClear View Post
    If you can do that great. Just let the bets ride (or hedge) and retire to your yacht!
    Can you show me a dog for tonight that has very +EV?
    i wish this was yesterday so i could've shown you vanderbilt +180
    (there are threads where you can tell my calculation of what the odds really should be, saying i would take them at -250 if you need me to point this out)

    there are only 4 cbb games tonight.

    1/21/2012 3:00 AM Props Tennis M.Llodra Wins 1st Set* +525 vs A.Murray Wins 1st Set
    this is not +ev but murrays been dropping a lot of first sets lately and llodra can hold with him (keep it a tie) until very late in the set- at which time murray will be about -250 to -350 to win it or possibly much better.

    again there are not a lot of good games or matches for tonight specificically but ask me again on saturday or wednesday.
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  33. 01-20-12 08:59 AM #33
    smoke a bowl
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    If I'm hedging its indirect however I'm subject to make 10-20 live bets on a big market game that can be on either side at any time if I think that it is a +EV bet at the time. Half the time I don't even know what my root(position) is except just hoping the account balances go up when the game is over.
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  34. 01-20-12 09:02 AM #34
    ebbearsfb1
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    Quote Originally Posted by k13 View Post
    If it wins it was +, if it loses it was -

    Hahah sounds about right... this guy knows his shyt lol... also another play for tonight marist plus 340... come get some niggas
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  35. 01-20-12 09:04 AM #35
    FourLengthsClear
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    Quote Originally Posted by k13 View Post
    Youngstown
    If you believe that then you hammer Youngstown State. What is the value proposition of intending to hedge it if things are going well? If it is simply that it guarantees a profit then we are going round in circles because that guaranteed profit involves a loss of equity unless the second bet is also +EV.
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