[jeffdane]

What time are the reduced odds posted?

Is it better to take a chance at getting a better line or wait for the reduced juice?

If we pick early and the line goes the other way then we lose.
If we wait and the line goes against our pick then we lose.

But if we wait at least we are getting reduced juice.

math guys check in.

Is waiting for the reduced odds worth the risk of the line moving against our pick?

[the_situation]

if u think line will move in your favor then wait
if you think you can grab a better line now then play it

i usually only play lines very early if im 100% confident that i am getting the best possible line

[High3rEl3m3nt]

I'd say that for the average SBR bettor, it would probably be better to wait for reduced juice and make a play later in the day. My niche is baseball and I have taken advantage of 5dimes' overnight lines and can lock in plays better than what's offered the next day in the line of reduced juice. The other thing that's nice about baseball is that all bets are void if a SP does not start, who is arguable the most important variable in handicapping games. Obviously, you can't say the same for other sports. I know this answer is more qualitative than quantitative...so, it will be interesting to see what others will say.

[jeffdane]

but mathematically,

is 0.5 point worth the 2-9 cents i may save.

i mean if i do really well, i will only lose 40% of my games. in these 40% of games how many will be decided by 0.5 to 3 points? if a small amount i would want low juice for when i do lose but will there be extra wins because of the extra points to offset the juice?

obviously i would want to try and get the best line with reduced juice but thats not exactly easy to figure out.

or does it even matter in the long run, prob get burned both ways to even out?

just wondering what you sharp mothas think.

[Mikail]

This is where being able to anticipate which way the line will move becomes crucial. To the novice it may be better to wait but as one becomes more accustomed to the market should be able to make informed decisions on whether to wait or lock in a price.

[High3rEl3m3nt]

I guess on this point baseball does not fit the bill, as I play mostly moneylines and locking in plays overnight can be the difference of 10 cents or more.

[jeffdane]

so whats the answer people?

i mean if i think 1 pt wont matter should i just wait for the reduced juice?

if i thought 1 pt would matter i just wouldnt bet the damn game.

so im either going to win or lose, so take the reduced juice right?

does anyone have a number on lines that move and then get middled (is that what i call it)?

[samgurt]

You should wait cuz 50% of the time the line will move in favor overnight and 50% it will move against. It will average out... so you might as well take the reduced juice the next day

[jeffdane]

if u think line will move in your favor then wait
if you think you can grab a better line now then play it

i usually only play lines very early if im 100% confident that i am getting the best possible line

just a test

i think these lines are at their peak

florida state +4.5
providence +7.5
bradley +8
kansas state -2.5
northern iowa +7
south carolina +4
s florida +5.5

[High3rEl3m3nt]

unless you have a great read on cbb and you have taken the time to cap each game, I don't see how this sample proves anything. If we assume that the bettor makes a few savvy selections on their niche sport, they'd probably play less games, especially on a Tuesday--edit: didn't realize the card was so large tomorrow, still think my point stands though.... It's really based so much on an individual's handicapping ability that your query is difficult to hypothesize or measure.

[jeffdane]

unless you have a great read on cbb and you have taken the time to cap each game, I don't see how this sample proves anything. If we assume that the bettor makes a few savvy selections on their niche sport, they'd probably play less games, especially on a Tuesday--edit: didn't realize the card was so large tomorrow, still think my point stands though.... It's really based so much on an individual's handicapping ability that your query is difficult to hypothesize or measure.

its just a test to see if i predict the line move. im not playing all those games. then i can compare the reduced odds to these odds and maybe then i can answer my question. only works if i can predict the line move though.

thanks for your input man. its a process that can always be improved. still tweaking the formula