I am scared to go against Yanks
Why are these fuks winning??
Why are these fuks winning??
-
Comment -
7 is too low a number for this Kc/Cle game. Bauer has been lucky to keep his ERA down despite 11 walks in 19 IP. Guthrie could get shelled in this spot. Cleveland bats have been hit or miss but capable of waking up tonight. Looks like a great over bet.Comment -
Good News / Bad News
My two ubnderdogs yesterday got fleas.
Good news is my Hawks pick clicked.
OK
Archie Bradley and the Snakes tonight over the Rox
1) If game is in Coors, I pass, but it's not, game is in Phoenix and the Rox don't hit as well on the road.
Rox hit .301 at home, .265 on road.
2) Archie Bradley is the much better starter here, should neutralize the Rox bats.
3) Rox starter Kyle Kendrick is brutal, I personally would not trust him to walk my dogs.
Snakes middle of the order with Goldy/Trumbo/Peralta can tame that hamburger.
4) Fair price on the home team, very fair at -115
Snakes at -115 tonightComment -
My point being, the Rockies hit .36 points less on the road.
My point IS NOT they can't hit for shit on the road.
I'm fully aware of what the league average is.
I think I know more about analytics than you do.
Once again, the point I was driving home is the Rockies don't nearly hit as well on the road then at home.
I see my thread is going to turn into a Exhoosier trying to discredit Nash versue Nash having to spoon feed my thought process to a poster who doesn't understand analytics.Comment -
nasher, i actually agree with your play dbacks -115.
however i have to agree with hoosier here about the rockies home road splits.
every MLB team would hit significantly lower average on the road if they played their home games at coors field
this is pretty common knowledge that the thin air causes the ball to travel faster and farther in coors
therefore i think this home road split angle is already factored into the lineComment -
^
The real reason I like the Dback play the most is the starting pitching matchup.
Not as much as the Rox hit .36 points less on the road.
Just saying, the chances of the Rockies croaking Bradley at Chase, or whatever they call their ballpark these days are less then it would be at Coors, and I'm saying Arizona can pretty much hit Kendrick anyplace, like most other teams.
Now having said that watch that meatbal throw a 3 hit shutout.Comment -
This is my fourth baseball season handicapping here.
Two out of three I turn a profit, search all the threads, it's out there, last year, not as good, but didn't get buried, and every year I have to defend my thought process.
I got idiots (not Hoosier, he does know a ton) but every year I get idiots that challenge my thought process, hell I had one bozo actually had the balls to tell me math has nothing to do with baseball, good one, baseball is math driven.Comment -
nasher,
theres nothing wrong with challenging your thought process. anyone can tell you are a smart dude. i like your insight
but this is a forum and people will disagree.
keep up the good workComment -
Nashy it's part of forum work you just ignore it
I get slammed every day and I laugh and you should too and just do what you do we all love your work
Damn Yankees tonight again winningComment -
And yet another case in point, going into tonight's Indians and Royals game.
Here are the BvP numbers of several Indians off of KC's Guthrie
Name PA AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS Michael Brantley 28 28 8 3 0 1 4 0 3 0.286 0.286 0.5 0.786 Carlos Santana 24 21 10 3 0 2 4 3 2 0.476 0.542 0.905 1.446 Lonnie Chisenhall 16 15 8 1 0 1 5 1 2 0.533 0.563 0.8 1.363 Brandon Moss 12 12 5 1 0 2 5 0 5 0.417 0.417 1 1.417
These are the four I used tonight in a Cleveland stack with Cueto as my SP.
I used these four tonight, because you can't use more that four from the same team in a stack.
And i used these four based on past performances off of Guthrie.
It's called analytics.
Now let's see how these four are doing tonight so far.
Let's go to Mr. Box Score
Comment -
I don't have the numbers but it always seems Kansas City is a good over teamComment -
Get 'em nasher!Comment -
Brian McCan going into tonights game versus Odorizzi was 8 for 13 .615/.683/1.308/1.951
What were the chances he would go 0 for 4 tonight?
McCann so far 2 for 3, two doubles and 3 RBI's.
BvP useless?
Or is it an ancilary stat that sometimes you can't ignore?Comment -
bvp a useful stat. i think most would agreeComment -
I actually use BvP several different ways, at times I like a players numbers vs a guy and project it to continue, but there plenty of times depending on matchup I project the opposite of what a small sample will sometimes have u believe. It all so subjective and really senseless to argue about as there no right answer and we all go about it differently, that's what makes it fun..Comment -
Should just slam Red Sox over every game. Their lineup is deep and starting pitching is horseshitComment -
Aramis Ramierez 17 for 48 lifetime versus Johnny Cueto.
.354 and 5 homeruns lifetime
A-Ram hits a homer once every 9.5 times a plate app. off of Cueto.
No way he goes deep tonight, right?
1-2 Cueto plunked him HBP (I wonder why)
the one hit, massive home run.
You don't think A-Ram is in Cueto's head even before the first pitch is thrown?
I'll type in again, I'll type it until my fingers bleed.
BvP is an ancilary stat that should not be ignored in a lot of cases.
I'm not a slave to it, but it's an ancilary stat that is used to lends support to your handicapping.Comment -
Nash,
I've always used BvP as one of my handicapping tools as well...but do you ever factor in the law of averages?...for example, Aramis Ramieriz is due to cool off against a top notch pitcher like Johnny Cueto...In all sports, but baseball particular, things due have a way of evening out in the long run...
Comment -
i disagree. of course there will be some variance, but i think this trend has significanceNash,
I've always used BvP as one of my handicapping tools as well...but do you ever factor in the law of averages?...for example, Aramis Ramieriz is due to cool off against a top notch pitcher like Johnny Cueto...In all sports, but baseball particular, things due have a way of evening out in the long run...Comment -
NASHY fukkin Yankees killing me
That is it..not fading them anymoreComment -
it's not a matter of disagreeing or agreeing...sometimes you've got to play the percentages while other times you go against the grain...for example, what if Rameirez was in a huge batting slump?...that would certainly factor in the equation...that's I meant by "things evening out"...and there are weather factors to consider such as wind direction and how many MPH its blowing...and also which umpiring crew is doing the game and how do they tend to call ballgames...many variables that go into the equation when handicapping...just like the RPI in college hoops, the BvP is a good, useful tool to use.Comment -
Certain BvP's you just can't ingore, a lot of them you can ignore, certain numbers you can't leave alone.Nash,
I've always used BvP as one of my handicapping tools as well...but do you ever factor in the law of averages?...for example, Aramis Ramieriz is due to cool off against a top notch pitcher like Johnny Cueto...In all sports, but baseball particular, things due have a way of evening out in the long run...Comment -
true manster ^^Comment -
Diamondbacks up 3-1
very early thoughComment -
A STRONG HEAD-TO-HEAD MATCHUP
Giants LHP Madison Bumgarner is lights out against Dodgers 1B Adrian Gonzalez in his career, but Gonzo has been hot at home so far this season, hitting .477 with 5 homers. The Giants struck first and lead 1-0 after the top of the 1st.
<figure style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 0; margin: 0px; position: relative; clear: both; max-height: 640px; overflow: hidden; text-align: center; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: BentonSans, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; background: rgb(242, 242, 242);">
</figure>
Comment -
^
BvP says Bummy is the play over A-GonComment
