[wantitall4moi]

Line movements factor in the sharpest opinions in the world if you have access to the top credit outfits on screen

Wanty I can teach you man

If youre an ORIGINATOR that wins then how are line move significant? They dont mean shit. They just mean you or people that follow you caused some action to move them, if you caused it and you were 'right' then it makes it appear as if the line move was "correct". That is known as causality.

A lot of RAS moves are caused by his guys and clients betting his plays. so people and himself will cite him "beating the closing number" by X amount well of course if he causes it. If he were wrong then those lines moves would mean shit. They still move. He just happens to be correct. But in games he loses he still 'beats the closer' he was just wrong. So line moves dont mean shit unless you have a game that ends in a bad spot for late comers.

I would also challenge anyone who plays his numbers to see how he has done versus these moves. In the past he has had a significant difference in results versus his released number versus WA or closers. Which can be looked at two ways. He is playing games that are too close tot he number, OR if you can get the opener or better and buy back you have a good chance to hit a couple middles. Since all the results are after the fact then hindsight is 20/20 I suppose.

When I was betting heavy at Pinnacle I would move openers 5 or 8 cents in baseball overnights. Once they changed their software it was sometime more. Did those moves mean anything? Only thing they meant was I was getting almost enough action on my own money to break even I just relied on guys that followed moves to do the rest for me. I really didnt give a shit who won I just wanted the cheapest price on both teams to maximize my collection regardless of who won.

Obviously that is different in spread based sports but guys with a clue and can generate line movement will buy back especially if the numbers jive. While middling isnt broad board profitable there are certain areas and sports where it can be. That is why I suggested people who follow him and his plays and the moves those lines make do an accounting to see how many of them would have won both ways. (His number he released and the extreme number the other way).

If they do make a difference in enough games then you have a decision, makes sure you can always get the best number on his side and dont bet games after they move, or bet games with no or a small line move then buy back the other side after it peaks, wait for the releases then cherry pick the opposite side or a few others.

This year he is doing fairly well, at least on sides so blindly fading line moves there wouldnt work. His 'bread and butter' totals plays arent doing as well as they have, but unless the moves are really siginficant and open up a ton of middles I doubt going contrarian to them would work either.

That is the great irony, everyone talks about line moves being the end all be all. IF and thats a big IF they are then the games youre betting are too close to call. As in why bet a game -5 that ends with a 6 point difference? Pick a game (if youre really that good) that is -8 and the dog wins SU. Basically because no one is that good, and the guys who do the best get all things aligned perfectly, they pick the right side more often than not, they get the best number more often than not, and they get a little bit of luck more often than not.

Ed on a personal level could win betting his own plays, his clients on the other hand have no such guarantee. This year they probably could as he is doing really well. But results are still going to vary from client to client depending on how many games he has released where the moves have mattered. Generally speaking it should be around 1-2%. So 1 or 2 games per one hundred will a line move make a winner a push or a loss. if it is more than that then the games being released are high risk.

[Edward-RAS]

If youre an ORIGINATOR that wins then how are line move significant? They dont mean shit.

But results are still going to vary from client to client depending on how many games he has released where the moves have mattered.

I think you just answered your own question.

Line moves matter to originators too. There are a lot of different originators in the market who are capable of leaving you with a bettor or worse number after betting.

[biggie12]

******* RAS just another tout with alot of publicity


find me any NBA tout, i can proove im better..

the real question is how much is RAS paying justin to make these comments

[wantitall4moi]

I think you just answered your own question.

Line moves matter to originators too. There are a lot of different originators in the market who are capable of leaving you with a bettor or worse number after betting.

No there is only one originator. Well there used to be I guess. But there are only a couple books that put lines out early enough to be consider an originator. But they still arent clones nor do they clone or move numbers on air when other places come out with a different number.

The final score is the only thing that determines who is right or who is wrong worrying about it BEFORE the game, especially after you make a bet, is just pissing in the wind. Of course everyone wants the best number but in over 95% of most people's plays it doesnt matter.

if the numbers and moves really mattered you would have clients with losing records even though according to you youre 56%.

I asked you to check moves against your releases awhile ago to see how much it effects you. Obviously you havent done it, so either it isnt significant enough or you dont want to be bothered with 'small' details.

LIke I have said over and over again this stuff is just rhetoric because people claim to need the best line, then in the other breath say they can still win with your service despite the line moves. You cant have it both ways. Either the line moves matter or they dont. I would say they are probably causing a difference of 1-2% in results. Which if youre a 54% capper turns you from a small winner into a loser at -110. You are at 56 or 59 or something like that combined, so if late players are getting 'bad' numbers they might be sitting at 56 or 57%, still more than enough to be profitable but not as profitable as someone who got 'your' number and has your win rate. But win percentages are meaningless as well if youre rating plays and betting 1,2 or 3 units and staggering them. That really upsets the apple cart in regards to 'score keeping'.

[jjgold]

Does this clown RAS even bet??

Rarely do touts bet so that tells everything

[FourLengthsClear]

No there is only one originator. Well there used to be I guess. But there are only a couple books that put lines out early enough to be consider an originator. But they still arent clones nor do they clone or move numbers on air when other places come out with a different number.

The final score is the only thing that determines who is right or who is wrong worrying about it BEFORE the game, especially after you make a bet, is just pissing in the wind. Of course everyone wants the best number but in over 95% of most people's plays it doesnt matter.

if the numbers and moves really mattered you would have clients with losing records even though according to you youre 56%.

I asked you to check moves against your releases awhile ago to see how much it effects you. Obviously you havent done it, so either it isnt significant enough or you dont want to be bothered with 'small' details.

LIke I have said over and over again this stuff is just rhetoric because people claim to need the best line, then in the other breath say they can still win with your service despite the line moves. You cant have it both ways. Either the line moves matter or they dont. I would say they are probably causing a difference of 1-2% in results. Which if youre a 54% capper turns you from a small winner into a loser at -110. You are at 56 or 59 or something like that combined, so if late players are getting 'bad' numbers they might be sitting at 56 or 57%, still more than enough to be profitable but not as profitable as someone who got 'your' number and has your win rate. But win percentages are meaningless as well if youre rating plays and betting 1,2 or 3 units and staggering them. That really upsets the apple cart in regards to 'score keeping'.

If you bet RAS plays at Pinny one minute after they are released, you are not winning in the long run.
I don't think Edward has tried to suggest otherwise.

If clients are still able to get money down at slower moving books, they can still win (for a while) with RAS plays. There is no contradiction here.

[Emily_Haines]

Does this clown RAS even bet??

Rarely do touts bet so that tells everything

I think the real question is does JJ even bet?

[wantitall4moi]

Does this clown RAS even bet??

Rarely do touts bet so that tells everything

touchy subject.

I will say this, Ed stared an 'info' gathering group maybe 10 years ago, correct me if I am wrong on that, and he was emailing guys and getting contact info for local guys who paid attention to the games or had contacts in certain areas. I used to send him stuff I heard around LA for 3 or 4 years anyway until he branched out. But now with twitter and texting and all that it is all known instantly anyway. used to be if you were at at practice and some players girl had missed her period it was a 'scoop' especially if the kid was a starter. Hell I remember hearing about Leinarts girl, the vollyball player, and thinking how sweet that was. And yes it mattered. Also remember all he shit going on at UCLA and the parking scam they had going. A lot of stuff. But now in 2011/12 everyone hears that from someone.

But he used to have a newsletter and blog spot where you could see this type of less than available info. So he does know his shit, and he does try a lot harder than most guys. But he is still now a full on tout. But like I have said in the past, a unique one, because he has enough clients and followers to actually effect a line, and thus it puts him in that position of having line moves actually effect his over all success. One year it was quite a bit, but I havent tracked it every year, and neither has he. But it is still enough so that guys who dont bet immediately have issues.

[LVHerbie]

Does this clown RAS even bet??

Rarely do touts bet so that tells everything

If you were paying for picks would you really want them to bet them first?

Ironically I believe this was a black eye in right angle's past (i.e. giving their picks early to those willing to pay more / cut them in for a share of winnings)...

[Dutch]

My team is up over 100k following RAS CBB this year.

Did your team use Ras last yr when he only hit 51%.?

How much did you lose?

If you didn't use his service last year, why not?

[Justin7]

Did your team use Ras last yr when he only hit 51%.?

How much did you lose?

If you didn't use his service last year, why not?

I'm working with a different group this year. Last year, I didn't play RAS -- I didn't have enough places I could bet.

[ApricotSinner32]

Yes because a guy working for sbr is going to give the public a profitable goldmine over time even though some of his income relies on the books having sucess.

[Edward-RAS]

If you bet RAS plays at Pinny one minute after they are released, you are not winning in the long run.
I don't think Edward has tried to suggest otherwise.

If clients are still able to get money down at slower moving books, they can still win (for a while) with RAS plays. There is no contradiction here.

Not that I would recommend these strategies going forward, but actually, over the past 3+ years CFB/CBB, you would still be quite profitable, even against the close, and definitely more so after 1 minute at Pinnacle at reduced juice.

[Edward-RAS]

No there is only one originator. Well there used to be I guess.

I'm not talking about sportsbooks. I am talking about bettors. CBB lines move constantly and substantially throughout the day. There are probably dozens of individuals/groups originating at a high level and moving the market.

LIke I have said over and over again this stuff is just rhetoric because people claim to need the best line, then in the other breath say they can still win with your service despite the line moves. You cant have it both ways.

Who doesn't want the best line possible? Every single 1/2 point matters in every single game. I don't care who you are or how good you might be. Every 1/2 point lost is lost +EV.

Our past performance is good enough that even playing at something as ridiculous as the closing line, clients would still be profitable, but FAR LESS profitable (about 75% less) than what they would be at the given release line. I state this as information only. It is not something I would ever recommend a paying subscriber to do. If you cannot get our release lines consistently, then the service just isn't for you. Request a prorated refund and move on.

[baskets]

******* RAS just another tout with alot of publicity find me any NBA tout, i can proove im better.. the real question is how much is RAS paying justin to make these comments

ha ha. enjoyable post. also like reading FLC's posts.

[kyhawk]

Nothing moves faster than a cbb total. Good luck.

[jjgold]

touchy subject.

I will say this, Ed stared an 'info' gathering group maybe 10 years ago, correct me if I am wrong on that, and he was emailing guys and getting contact info for local guys who paid attention to the games or had contacts in certain areas. I used to send him stuff I heard around LA for 3 or 4 years anyway until he branched out. But now with twitter and texting and all that it is all known instantly anyway. used to be if you were at at practice and some players girl had missed her period it was a 'scoop' especially if the kid was a starter. Hell I remember hearing about Leinarts girl, the vollyball player, and thinking how sweet that was. And yes it mattered. Also remember all he shit going on at UCLA and the parking scam they had going. A lot of stuff. But now in 2011/12 everyone hears that from someone.

But he used to have a newsletter and blog spot where you could see this type of less than available info. So he does know his shit, and he does try a lot harder than most guys. But he is still now a full on tout. But like I have said in the past, a unique one, because he has enough clients and followers to actually effect a line, and thus it puts him in that position of having line moves actually effect his over all success. One year it was quite a bit, but I havent tracked it every year, and neither has he. But it is still enough so that guys who dont bet immediately have issues.

I would say the guy is scared to make a bet

Full blown touts are salesman, I would think once he found out you cannot beat them why not try and con public to buy your picks, I still think anyone buying picks is a fukkin sucker

All you need to do is move to Canada or Europe and scalp big numbers and make money without any risk

Anyone selling picks is never a good sign

[baskets]

jj does speak the plain truth sometimes. well done, sir

[Edward-RAS]

The generalizations being made I am sure are true with most outfits selling picks, but there are always a few exceptions.

We've hit over 56% on our last 2,500 picks across CFB, CBB, and WNBA. All against widely available mature market lines at -110. All with 100% transparent recordkeeping.

That easily puts us in the top 0.1% of anyone who makes their picks available to the public.

[wantitall4moi]

I'm not talking about sportsbooks. I am talking about bettors. CBB lines move constantly and substantially throughout the day. There are probably dozens of individuals/groups originating at a high level and moving the market.




Who doesn't want the best line possible? Every single 1/2 point matters in every single game. I don't care who you are or how good you might be. Every 1/2 point lost is lost +EV.

Our past performance is good enough that even playing at something as ridiculous as the closing line, clients would still be profitable, but FAR LESS profitable (about 75% less) than what they would be at the given release line. I state this as information only. It is not something I would ever recommend a paying subscriber to do. If you cannot get our release lines consistently, then the service just isn't for you. Request a prorated refund and move on.

So am I. A bettor can only make one move on an ORIGINAL number. So therefore he still has to look and see what the best original number is for the team he likes. That is all an ORIGINATOR has to go on. Guys chasing steam, betting other peoples plays and what not all have to then line shop around after the fact. Both originator and chaser are going to line shop, chasers just think they have more information to go on. Which is an obvious fallacy.

Why do you think guys like me and a few others made so much money? BECAUSE people chased steam and lines moved way more than they should have. I bet OPENERS usually at Pinnacle, sometimes in Vegas those fresh virgin lines that even with limits were still nice. Then all we had to do was sit back and hope some tout or syndicate liked the same play, and wait for the real action to hit. I saw baseball games move 50 or 60 cents on a regular basis. Even last year 25-30 cents was no big deal. Not the mega moves they used to But I think that is more due to software improvements than ability to make a 'better' opener.

You arent an originator either. You sit and wait for a few things to transpire then you make a release. THAT release WILL start some line movement to be sure, but the line movement had already started when you finally pulled the trigger you just help it along. I havent tracked all of your plays but there is a pattern there on the ones I have looked at.

Either way youre stuff is good this year, and I would say regardless of the line they get people are going to make money. So there isnt a lot of criticism that can be made in that. I just state the obvious stuff people seemingly miss that shows that a lot of people maybe shouldnt be gambling in the first place. People only care how they personally do, so if they are +6 units with you theyre happy, it probably doesnt bother them that someone else might be +14 units.

[Edward-RAS]

You arent an originator either.

Who originates our plays? I would sure like to meet this person!

[jjgold]

If everyone bought the picks then we all can quit our jobs then???

I can assure you if you buy RAS picks or anyone else and bet them you will lose your fukkin paycheck

RAS would not sell picks if it was soo easy to win

[wantitall4moi]

Who originates our plays? I would sure like to meet this person!

You dont release plays until the 'market' has made some moves, therefore you are not originating anything. Call it semantics I suppose. But like I say I have started tracking your stuff and there is a pattern. Again, people see and hear what they want, until they look at things objectively they just dont get it.

Not being an originator doesnt mean you arent releasing your own personal opinions it just means you let things shake out before you release things and for how many units. I am sure you eliminate a few plays based on negative moves, and thus that automatically eliminates you from being an originator because an originator never ever deletes a play because of aline move because they bet them before the lines move.

[d2bets]

You dont release plays until the 'market' has made some moves, therefore you are not originating anything. Call it semantics I suppose. But like I say I have started tracking your stuff and there is a pattern. Again, people see and hear what they want, until they look at things objectively they just dont get it.

Not being an originator doesnt mean you arent releasing your own personal opinions it just means you let things shake out before you release things and for how many units. I am sure you eliminate a few plays based on negative moves, and thus that automatically eliminates you from being an originator because an originator never ever deletes a play because of aline move because they bet them before the lines move.

So you can only be an originator if you make your bet as soon as you see a line? Seems a little rigid.

[wantitall4moi]

So you can only be an originator if you make your bet as soon as you see a line? Seems a little rigid.

Like I said semantics. But if a line opes -4 -107 and someone bets it -4 -108 at the same book and it loses (and they bet 108 to win 100) theyre paying almost 1% more (.95%). That is hypertechnical but when guys live to stress the lines and moves they make and live and die on decimal point differences as to how much they 'beat' a number it becomes valid.

In most cases plays are made with a much larger differential and thus become a much larger 'disadvantage'. Once again going by their 'rules'.

While I have always contended lines arent the end all be all of success or failure, always getting the best line you can on the team you want does matter. That might sound like the same thing but it isnt. Just like the example a bove. If you like a team that is painted -4 everywhere bet it if possible at the one with the lowest attached Vig. Doesnt mean it will win, it just means you pay the least amount of penalty for the play.

[biggie12]

wantitall4moi,

Your my new favourite poster congatz

[jjgold]

Nobody can outsmart Wanty here

He made RAS look real bad

I doubt the guy ever posts here again

Good Job Wanty

[wantitall4moi]

Nobody can outsmart Wanty here

He made RAS look real bad

I doubt the guy ever posts here again

Good Job Wanty

nah he will be back he defends himself. Mostly because he has success. The guy isnt horrible he is just a salesmen. He can win, but sometimes he does cause enough action to move a line that effects his clients. In some ways that makes him more 'dangerous' than a boiler room guy. because his opinions cause moves which are followed. It isnt like simply chasing steam and guessing and hoping it is right, youre buying the water before it boils and hope you beat the steam out of the top. Sometimes you do, sometimes you dont.

He does offer money back to people who dont get a certain amount of plays in so that is as fair as it can get I guess.

I just flip all these generic lines of logic and thought on their head and use it against people who claim it as gospel.

[Edward-RAS]

You dont release plays until the 'market' has made some moves, therefore you are not originating anything. Call it semantics I suppose. But like I say I have started tracking your stuff and there is a pattern. Again, people see and hear what they want, until they look at things objectively they just dont get it.

Not being an originator doesnt mean you arent releasing your own personal opinions it just means you let things shake out before you release things and for how many units. I am sure you eliminate a few plays based on negative moves, and thus that automatically eliminates you from being an originator because an originator never ever deletes a play because of aline move because they bet them before the lines move.

Of course we let things shake out. We don't have a choice. If we released at open, with only CRIS up, maybe 1 or 2 people would get the line, and it would be at overnight limits. We release morning of game when CRIS and Pinn go to full limits, and 90% of all offscreens are up.

[Edward-RAS]

My team is up over 100k following RAS CBB this year.

I can assure you if you buy RAS picks or anyone else and bet them you will lose your fukkin paycheck

Someone has to be wrong here.

[minet123]

JJ
Yes all touts are scumbags
but I don't consider Ed a tout
you buy his subscription
and it is very clear on his web site what to expect
is he marketing he subscription-YES

I do not pay for picks or subscriptions
but if someone at the boccie said who's plays should i buy i would recommend RAS or one other(who can remain nameless here)
Like i told Bronxer to play RAS you can not have life if you want to get his # plus you need 5 outs 3 of which should be HIGH credit and one slow moving local who's to dumb to boot you

JJ challenge him, his plays are public knowledge take him on with your NHL plays and not the BS spreadsheet nonsense you post here but your real plays

[raydog]

I think it goes without saying that RAS may be the only tout that has sportsbooks purchasing his plays...

wantitall4moi, what is your background with sportsbetting? you made a comment that you used to move pinny prices .05 to .08 cents in bases there...personally, i believe that is completely false, but if you gave us a little background, we might understand...were you part of a group or something? just curious...i like to know the past experience of some guys who express as many opinions as you do...

[wantitall4moi]

I think it goes without saying that RAS may be the only tout that has sportsbooks purchasing his plays...

wantitall4moi, what is your background with sportsbetting? you made a comment that you used to move pinny prices .05 to .08 cents in bases there...personally, i believe that is completely false, but if you gave us a little background, we might understand...were you part of a group or something? just curious...i like to know the past experience of some guys who express as many opinions as you do...

They had bad software and decent sized overnight limits. More than one account bet into them. Thats all I am saying.

[SlickRick1382]

Someone has to be wrong here.

Since you don't spend enough time on the forums to know, and obviously no one would blame you for that, simple rule...

Ignore jjgold's comments.... He's a character and posts for reaction not for insight. He is though very entertaining at times =)

[jjgold]

Someone has to be wrong here.

I am rarely wrong, one of most powerful guys offshore even to this day

Ok so your saying I can quit my fukkin job digging holes for fukkin fences busted my fukkin balls for $9 per hr and installing security cameras where as I get made fun of because of my bald head and peculiar behaviors in the house?

I can buy this package and just bet your plays and wear leather pants and gold chains with a broad hanging all over me??

Eddie all I ever wanted was to be a sugar daddy in Vegas

So this will happen??