[H1Cypher]

Started off betting only MMA. Originally a basketball fan. Making great MMA picks but not enough money to bet and win actual money- and since it is a fight alot of upsets happen I was mostly breaking even. Started betting football, a sport I had never watched. Was not doing bad on football, then decided to start betting on hockey... another sport I've never watched and still mostly don't watch even to now. Tried expanding to soccer but it's not an american sport, sensed I'd get my ass whupped and stayed away from non american sports.

I bet on everything.... teasers, parlays, straight bets, 1st quarter, 1st half, team totals, money line, buy points. Over 1,000 plays in 3 months. I've been bleeding money making some weird bets... I'll often bet at least 5 events a day... but make multiple bets... singles, parlays, teasers, etc.

I try to never half more than 30% of my roll at risk at any one time. And since I broke 2,000 I've never had more than 25% of my roll up at any one point.

Is it just luck? Obviously luck has something to do with it. Will the inevitable happen and I will start losing badly?

Opinions would be appreciated that is why I posted it here. I would be winning alot more if I bet more of my roll.

I feel like I am losing money, but afraid of putting too much into 1 bet and losing... so I spread it out over a lot of bets... and end up winning most of them. Basically... there's picks I'm super confident about but I'm afraid of bad beats so I spread it out. For example:

If the Colts had not beat to the Texans this year I'd be up over 5,000. I could have arbed my bet(i had a series of parlays that wound up to about 200 to win 1,500 ish)... but at +550 with 1 drive to go I felt like I was getting dicked.

Obviously, many people have turned 500 into 3k +... but with this volume of plays?

[Bcatswin]

Never fukin heard of you pal, Best of Luck

[griz]

Good for u pal

Become a pro or stfu

[H1Cypher]

Not trying to brag. I expected negative comments like this it is cool. Hoping something constructive might eek through. None of my friends are gamblers and everyone I talk to is ignorant to anything I say.

So yeah just know I'm looking for some opinions to get me thinking. I have a job, but it allows me time to make bets research etc.

[FourLengthsClear]

What is your winning percentage?
What are the average odds?
Are you using any coherent staking plan/bet percentage or employing any form of 'chasing'?

[H1Cypher]

Winning percentage is skewed, cause I make so many parlays. I'll make like 5 parlays for 5 dollars each... then make a parlay for 10 bucks(at the sametime), and then include a parlay I'm even more confident about for say 20 bucks.

Single bets I make are bigger usually to win between 20-100 dollars. If It's an MMA fight, which I consider more of a specialty I'm willing to bet more if I feel really confident about a fight.

Yes I do chase, but only if it is my plan. Some bets I start out small, with the intention of chasing... if I win stopping the process... and waiting for another 'time' to start the chase all over again. I'll often start my chase with a base bet to win 10-30 dollars and then continue it... half the time stopping once I'm up(usually within the first couple bets)... or continue it.

If I'm betting a larger sum then then there is no chase since I don't want to be wrong a couple times in a row, and boom I'm out of my roll.

What do you mean average odds? I've always been good at picking winners, just recently started sports gambling. On single bets I won't bet on favorites more than -250... most people say don't go above like -150 or something. But when I pick something -200 I usually feel real good about my chances. -300s and everything else is usually for parlays. My parlays are 1-4 team parlays usually.

I've lost a couple hundred dollars just playing around with 15 team parlays and teasers. Those were just me seeing if if I could pick do it or not, obviously I can't =p.

[FourLengthsClear]

Do you have a record of all the bets you have made?

If so it is possible to run some numbers and reasonably assess the question you asked i.e.
"Is it just luck? ............... Will the inevitable happen and I will start losing badly?"

It is going to take a fair bit of work on your part though. If you are serious about it, I can help you out with the process.


If you don't have such a record then it is not possible to say one way or the other based on the info you have provided.

[H1Cypher]

Online bookies so yep I got all my recent plays. Well of all the plays it seems like they got it all archived with easy access.

[FourLengthsClear]

Online bookies so yep I got all my recent plays. Well of all the plays it seems like they got it all archived with easy access.

OK. Stage one is to simply log all of the plays and odds in a spreadsheet.

If the plays are part of a parlay, treat it as a separate bet.
If you have bought/sold points include those plays too.

I would tend to ignore teasers for the moment but it is worth recording those and keeping them to one side for the moment.

So your simple spreadsheet should have 4 columns

A. Sport
B. Bet Type (ML/Spread/Total etc.)
C. Odds
D. Won/Lost

Once you have done that, you can bump this thread or shoot me a PM.

[H1Cypher]

I'll shoot you a private message sometime this week. Got some last minute bets I wanna get in.

I'm losing when it comes to teasers I know for a fact. I tease too many teams... my teaser cards look absolutely moronic I'm sure... if I posted them Im sure I'd get obliterated for my stupid bets.

[frizzelli]

Fuk off

[usernametaken]

After 1000 bets, it is no fluke. What happens if you lose 8 bets in a row like the rest of us?

[naslax13]

if your not betting with a system that works you will never sustain that success. take my word for it.betting in general you can't win, unless you know how to think like a bookie.

[ACoochy]

Cypher anytime ur making bank is good pal...Keep up the good work