Here is my breakdown of the Air force/toledo matchup. To me Toledo upon first glance looks very impressive statistically especially on offense where theyve been explosive. But when i look at toledos schedule there are some troubling trends. When they have played the better teams on their schedule theyve found ways to lose, this including syracuse, northern illinois, a trampling to boise st, and hardly squeaking by WMU while getting absolutely gashed in the process for 63 pts. They played ohio st close but remember the buckeyes were breaking in a new coach and QB. The numbers say their run D is OK at about 120 ypg but when looking at half the teams on their schedule I can throw that number out the window. AF on the other hand has played both TCU, Boise, and ND, while giving Boise a scare on the blue turf. Their strength is running the ball with their patented triple option offense, grinding the clock with methodical drives, led by their senior QB Jefferson who may be the best QB in AF history. They can also mix it up with the occasional pass to keep defenses honest and makes them tough to defend. On the other side u have an AF D that is poor against the run statistically and it looks like disaster vs a balanced toledo team that can run the ball too. This leads me to last yrs game in which AF pretty much stoned GT and their vaunted ground game when it was said AF was too small and undersized. With weeks of rest AF will use their quickness and disruptive front 7 to try and bottle up Toldeo, the same way they stopped GT on the ground. I also expect AF to game plan defensively with an eye on slowing down eric page who is the guy that makes their offense go, and they care more than capable with one of the top pass D in the nation at 160 ypg allowed and are very aggressive defending the passing lanes. That being said I see this layoff hurting toledos rythm offensively who peaked late, while AF is chomping at the bit to win another bowl game for the 3rd straight year. I expect AF to come out strong and rattle toledo early with big plays and toledo to eventually fail to match their intensity and AF rolls to victory behind jefferson. Edge AF +3, AF ML +150. GL