[ThaddeusB]

A lot of people believe you can only go broke taking big favorites long term. I disagree. These MLs get little action and so are less efficient than most. So, I'm starting a fun little experiment to see if I can beat these lines long term. If you think this is stupid, you are in the majority, but feel free to waste your time telling me how dumb I am if you like.

Rules:
-Starting with $200 bankroll
-Will bet 5-25% of bankroll on a typical play
-Average line will be in the -1000 range
-Will keep experiment going for a while regardless of results

Have fun mocking me or tailing me,
Thaddeus

EDIT: Per request, I am also tracking a separate $100 "allin every bet" pot. This will have a maximum of one play at a time.

[FourLengthsClear]

Since you have termed it an experiment and you are planning on doing this for a while, might be worth tracking the results if you had taken the dog at the best odds available at the books you play at.

[ThaddeusB]

12/20:

Starting balance: $200

NCAAB: Syracuse -3500 risk $35
NCAAB: San Jose St -325 risk $19.50
NCAAB: Valparaiso -750 risk $30
NCAAB: Kent State -675 risk $40.50

[BIGDAY]

BOL! I'll be checking in time to time.

[ThaddeusB]

NCAAB: Manhattan -900 risk $18

[Madison]

NCAAB: Manhattan -900 risk $18

Tailing with SBR $ for 180. Still want to know about the 55K.

[sideloaded]

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/college-fo...cookie+monster

[Glitch]

someone should also do an experiment of big ml favorites one at a time going all-in. this one is nice too except: one loss will hurt too bad and more games per night means more exposure to this possible loss.

you should try a hybrid of what youre doing and what i mentioned above somehow.

someone tried that aforementioned other experiment but they did not execute it properly and failed miserably. (they took soccer very early in the trials lost)

[ThaddeusB]

Bonus play (won't count toward experiment since its the "wrong" side):
Charleston +1750 risk $2

[ThaddeusB]

Per Glitch's suggestion., I am tracking a "allin every wager" thing on the side. Today's allin play would have been Syracuse. Since everything one and it was the highest juice, I'll go ahead and allow it to be an official allin play.


Results & comments on games:

NCAAB: Syracuse -3500 risk $35 Won, beat closing line, pushed against spread
NCAAB: San Jose St -325 risk $19.50 Won, badly beat closing line, covered
NCAAB: Valparaiso -750 risk $30 Won, closing line unchanged, didn't cover
NCAAB: Kent State -675 risk $40.50 Won, closing line essentially unchanged (beat by 5¢), didn't cover; game was closer than final score
NCAAB: Manhattan -900 risk $18 Won, closing line unchanged, covered

Official record: 5-0 +$19
For comparison only: 2-2-1 against spread, 2-0-3 on beating close
Expected record if all lines reflected 0 EV: 4.39-.61
Expected record if all lines were accurate (approx): 4.30-.70


Allin results:
NCAAB: Syracuse -3500 risk $100 Won

+$2.86

Bonus plays (big dogs):
Charleston +1750 risk $2 Lost, closing line unchanged, covered; was within 1 possession until final two minutes

Bonus Record: 0-1 -$2
For comparison: 1-0 against spread, 0-0-1 on beating close

Good first day,
Thaddeus

[Jrod124]

love the idea Thad, will be checking back daily

[ThaddeusB]

A pair of soccer games for tomorrow:

Heerenveen ML -1000 risk $15
Manchester United +0 -345 risk $13.80

[eleuropeano]

Very interesting experiment. I have tried this myself and it works if you are very disciplined (meaning you dont go all in and you dont try 7-8+ team parlays). In general, I would say it would be better if stay away from soccer league games, because the possibility of a draw there generally hurts in the long run. But that is just my two cents.

Good luck with this. I will probably be tailing a lot of the picks.

[Duff85]

Thad big fan of this. I tend to disagree with you on the lack of action on big money ml favourites. Virtually every game on Betfair that involves lopsided odds tends to take more action than those that are more evenly matched. Squares love a lock... and in super favourites they get that almost guaranteed win. I doubt that the experiment profits on the favourite side over a big sample, on the other hand I would not at all be surprised if you hit 10% or less on the dogs and make +units.

Will def be following though, will be good.

[milwaukee mike]

best of luck thaddeus. i think the experiment won't have nearly enough plays to make a good judgement about the validity of the strategy though.
with a $200 bankroll it would only take 5 big game losses over the norm to completely wipe you out and on the flipside a few more of those big favorites winning than usual would make you look really good.

[ThaddeusB]

12/21 plays:

NCAAB: Indiana St -3250 risk $32.50
NCAAB: Kent St -250 risk $25
NCAAB: Utah State -650 risk $26
NCAAB: Iona -3000 risk $30

Allin play:
Iona -3000 risk $102.86

Bonus play:
NCAAF: Louisiana Tech +290 risk $5

[ThaddeusB]

Thanks everyone for the words of encouragement/advice.

Very interesting experiment. I have tried this myself and it works if you are very disciplined (meaning you dont go all in and you dont try 7-8+ team parlays). In general, I would say it would be better if stay away from soccer league games, because the possibility of a draw there generally hurts in the long run. But that is just my two cents. Good luck with this. I will probably be tailing a lot of the picks.

I won't be making a huge number of soccer plays and when I do, I'll usually go for the +0 so that a draw is a push.

best of luck thaddeus. i think the experiment won't have nearly enough plays to make a good judgement about the validity of the strategy though. with a $200 bankroll it would only take 5 big game losses over the norm to completely wipe you out and on the flipside a few more of those big favorites winning than usual would make you look really good.

The higher the odds, the higher the variance, that is true. I'll keep this going for a while so hopefully the sample size eventually gets significant. If I have bad luck early, I'll add to the bankroll.

[ThaddeusB]

Bonus play:

NCAAB: Fresno State +260 risk $5

[ThaddeusB]

adding $12.50 each to

NCAAB: Indiana St -2500
NCAAB: Iona -2500

[Glitch]

i was thinking about giving you some more kent state ML action in your book thread. i think you have about a 68 percent chance of a -25 here.


will be interesting to watch the all-in plays for sure.

[rkelly110]

I'm doing the same in NHL. Picking the largest ML fav. On a 16-0 run right now.

GL

[ThaddeusB]

Had the first loss today, but was close to break even anyway.

Results & comments on games 12/22:

Soccer: Heerenveen ML -1000 risk $15 Won, beat closing line; 11(!)-1 final
Soccer: Manchester United +0 -345 risk $13.80 Won, got in worse than closing line
NCAAB: Indiana St -3250 risk $32.50 & -2500 risk $12.50 Won, got in worse than closing line, didn't cover
NCAAB: Kent St -250 risk $25 Lost, got in worse than closing line; blew 5 point lead in last 3 minutes, losing on last second 3 pointer by 1
NCAAB: Utah State -650 risk $26 Won, beat closing line, covered
NCAAB: Iona -3000 risk $30 & -2500 risk $12.50 Won, beat closing line on avg, push on sp[read

Official record: 5-1 -$12.5
For comparison only: 1-2-1 against spread, 3-3 on beating close


Allin results:
NCAAB: Iona -3000 risk $102.86 Won

+$4.03

Bonus plays (big dogs):
NCAAF: Louisiana Tech +290 risk $5 Lost, got in worse than closing line, covered
NCAAB: Fresno State +260 risk $5 Won, got in worse than closing line

Bonus Record: 1-1 +$8
For comparison: 2-0 against spread, 0-2 on beating close

[ThaddeusB]

Results to date


Official picks:
12/21: 5-0 +$19
12/22: 5-1 -$12.50

Official record: 10-1 +$6.50
For comparison only: 3-4-1 against spread, 5-3-3 on beating close
Expected record if all lines reflected 0 EV: 9.59-1.41
Expected record if all lines were accurate (approx): 9.38-1.62

By sport:
NCAAB: 8-1 +$1
Soccer: 2-0 +$5.5

Current Bankroll: $206.50

Allin results:
12/21: 1-0 +$2.86
12/22: 1-0 +$4.03

Current Bankroll: $106.89

Bonus plays (big dogs):
12/21: 0-1 -$2
12/22: 1-1 +$8

Bonus Record: 1-2 +$6
For comparison: 3-0 against spread, 0-2-1 on beating close

[Glitch]

very interesting stuff. i hope you keep it up even though you have a lot to do. this is a good experiment.

[ThaddeusB]

12/22 Soccer:

Barcelona -2500 ML risk $25

Allin play:
Barcelona +0 -5000 risk $106.89

[senseionline]

all in on soccer match u got guts

[ThaddeusB]

12/22 NCAAB:

Southern Miss -400 risk $32
Harvard -1000 risk $25
Weber St -1000 risk $30
Connecticut -780 risk $31.20
BYU -730 risk $29.20
Kansas -280 risk $14
Stanford -1000 risk $20
Creighton -295 risk $20.65
Missouri -290 risk $20.30
Kansas St -1200 risk $48
Denver -5000 risk $50


Bonus plays:
Pepperdine +800 risk $3
Kennesaw +475 risk $4
CS Northridge +1625 risk $2


Note: more than $200 placed in play, but early games will be over long before later games start.

[Glitch]

the discrepancy is whether or not soccer should be banned. i vote yes. barcelona would be the only exception at times when i was familiar with their playoff clinching status. but i would want to get rid of that one variable anyway for a better test.

some other guy took man u resting and got wiped out supposedly with real money for like 1000 bucks right in the beginning like this is. its so low scoring like baseball so you should never be ok with anything passed -900.

creighton is likely todays loss. i like the other side a lot also byu.

i would vote no soccer or baseball or hockey in the all-in testing. the games are too low scoring for a couple flukes to not be able to hurt very badly.

[eleuropeano]

Do you think Boise State is not worth a pop today or you're just staying away from football? It seems perfect for the purposes of this experiment

[ThaddeusB]

Do you think Boise State is not worth a pop today or you're just staying away from football? It seems perfect for the purposes of this experiment

I would be more inclined to take Boise St is they were in a good bowl. Here, I feel there is a significant chance of disappointment hurting their performance.

Adding:
NFL: Houston -265 risk $26.50

[ThaddeusB]

Results & comments on games 12/22:

Soccer: Barcelona -2500 ML risk $25 Won, significantly beat closing line; 9-0 win - I'm not going to take a lot of soccer, but when you have one of the top 5 teams in the world playing a semi-pro team at home in a tournament for national pride, sure why not.
NCAAB:
Southern Miss -400 risk $32 Won (barely), closing line unchanged, didn't cover
Harvard -1000 risk $25 Won, closing line unchanged, didn't cover (by .5)
Weber St -1000 risk $30 Won, significantly beat closing line, covered
Connecticut -780 risk $31.20 Won, beat closing line, didn't cover
BYU -730 risk $29.20 Won, closing line basically unchanged, covered
Kansas -280 risk $14 Won, closing line basically unchanged, covered
Stanford -1000 risk $20 Loss, got in worse than closing line; irritated at myself for playing this. I didn't like the play (that's why the risk is small), but my model said it was a great bet - next time I'll trust myself & skip it
Creighton -295 risk $20.65 Won, significantly beat closing line, covered
Missouri -290 risk $20.30 Won, got in worse than the closing line, didn't cover
Kansas St -1200 risk $48 Won, closing line mostly unchanged, covered; this was my top play of the day, as you can tell by the high risk. I would have made it the allin play had I not picked Barcelona earlier in the day (games happened at same time)
Denver -5000 risk $50 Won, closing line unchanged, push on spread
NFL: Houston -265 risk $26.50 Loss, significantly beat closing line


Official record: 11-2 +$0
For comparison only: 5-6-1 against spread, 5-2-6 on beating close


Allin results:
Barcelona +0 -5000 risk $106.89 Won

+$2.14

Bonus plays (big dogs):
NCAAB:
Pepperdine +800 risk $3 Lost, significantly beat closing line, covered
Kennesaw +475 risk $4 Lost, got in significantly worse than closing line, didn't cover
CS Northridge +1625 risk $2 Lost, got in worse than closing line, didn't cover

Bonus Record: 0-3 -$9
For comparison: 1-2 against spread, 1-2 on beating close

[goofyre]

I think RM18 did this with 2 grand during the world cup. He went all in every play and made it quite a ways. Not sure if he finally lost of just quit.

[ThaddeusB]

12/23 plays:

NCAAB:
Clemson -600 risk $30
Kansas St -600 risk $24
Penn -650 risk $19.50
Xavier -550 risk $22

No allin play

Bonus plays:
Richmond +330 risk $4

[ThaddeusB]

I'm not going to wait up until the end of the Xavier game to update the thread, so I'll put that game on the 12/24 reports (which makes sense since that is when it is actually played anyway.

Results & comments on games 12/23:

NCAAB:
Clemson -600 risk $30 Won, got in worse than the closing line, didn't cover; needn't OT to get the win
Kansas St -600 risk $24 Won, beat closing line, didn't cover
Penn -650 risk $19.50 Won, significantly beat closing line, covered

Official record: 3-0 +$12
For comparison only: 1-2 against spread, 2-1 on beating close


Allin results:
No play

Bonus plays (big dogs):
NCAAB: Richmond +330 risk $4 Lost, got in significantly worse than closing line, covered

Bonus Record: 0-1 -$4
For comparison: 1-0 against spread, 0-1 on beating close

[ThaddeusB]

Results to date
(Note: I changed the starting bankroll to $300 to more accurately reflect the wagers placed)

Official picks:
12/20: 5-0 +$19
12/21: 5-1 -$12.50
12/22: 11-2 +$0
12/23: 3-0 +$12

Official record: 24-3 +$18.50
For comparison only: 9-12-2 against spread, 12-6-9 on beating close
Expected record if all lines reflected 0 EV: 23.28-3.72
Expected record if all lines were accurate (approx): 22.70-4.30

By sport:
NCAAB: 21-2 +$38.50
Soccer: 3-0 +$6.5
NFL: 0-1 -$26.50

Current Bankroll: $318.50

Allin results:
12/20: 1-0 +$2.86
12/21: 1-0 +$4.03
12/22: 1-0 +$2.14

Current Bankroll: $109.03

Bonus plays (big dogs):
12/20: 0-1 -$2
12/21: 1-1 +$8
12/22: 0-3 -$912/23: 0-1 -$4
Bonus Record: 1-6 -$7
For comparison: 5-2 against spread, 1-5-1 on beating close