Originally Posted by
TheCentaur
Ok now double that because you could flip 60 tails or heads, now add the possibility of flipping 55,56,57,58,59 tails, now double that for heads, and add it all together.
Could be wrong, I know you are a smart guy. But saying 60 or more tails is 2.3% is misleading, isn't it?
Then you have to take in to account that the OP is probably searching for a trend in totals, Monday night games for the past ten years, domes vs. grass, teams coming off a bye week, etc., so the chances of not finding something at ~61% with around 200 samples would be a surprise.
I remember a few years ago my cousin was going to light a cigarette and dropped the cigarette on the ground. It landed on it's end, and didn't fall over, just stood there. We were amazed, and of course tried to do it again and again with no success. It was like lightning struck because the chances of doing that again are very long. But you also have to take in to account how many random events you observe every day, yet don't notice until something weird happens.
I'm not saying the op's observation can't be significant, but 200 is still a small sample size, especially when you are searching for a pattern, instead of forming a hypothesis and then testing it. It's the main reason sportsbetting is a multi billion dollar industry.