[mathdotcom]

Grabbed Pats -5.5, almost up to 9 and climbing



BTJ is a veteran and should get more attention on here than perennial losers like Brock Landers

mathy

[onacloud]

Multiple people made threads before him about the Pat's....

Get off his rooster

[Extra Innings]

Should be one hell of a game.

[jjgold]

Jimmy has always been sharp

Well you know though betting Pats now is a sucker line so you cannot bet them

[TR88]

....

[King Mayan]

I'm happy it's moving up.. Will get a better broncos number..

[FourLengthsClear]

LOL.
The true line is -7.5, the -9 (with juiced dog odds) is a common move to stop people from placing Wong teasers.

I have seen moneylines move from -150 to -300 at least twice this week.
Those are genuinely big moves.

[Emily_Haines]

THE LAST 3 MONTHS HAS BEEN THE WORST OF MY LIFE I CANT WIN PERIOD.I CLOSED DOWN MY CREDIT ACCOUNT WITH MY LOCAL GUY LAST WEEK I SENT OUT 800 DOLLARS TO HERITAGE GOT IT UP TO 2100 AND LOST IT ALL IN ONE WEEKEND

I AM FLAT BROKE FELLAS MY LOVELY WIFE WILL NOT GIVE ME ANY MORE ALLOWANCE MONEY UNTIL NEXT YEAR

Sounds like he needs this one to get back to even

[SteveRyan]

The line on New England is TOO HIGH.

The books are trying to clean up on this one. Watch what happens. Pats wont cover.

[mathdotcom]

Will BTJ be going for the middle now??

[FourLengthsClear]

Will BTJ be going for the middle now??

Other shops will probably move to +9 -120 too to prevent wise-guy teasers.

As it stands I wouldn't be surprised if the line moved back a bit on Sunday with 'sharps' trying to steal the middle on 7.

[mathdotcom]

Real sharps would let it ride and only take the 9 if it has value independently

[Glitch]

no, thats not the call of the year to think the patriots will beat the broncos by a td or more...

the line was and even still is like that because of magic not football playing prowess.

if you believe in stats and skilled players you take the patriots, if you believe in god and/or magic you take tim tebow or lay off.

there's no capping necessary. Every person outside of Colorado thinks the patriots are way better; that is not the issue at hand.

[FourLengthsClear]

Real sharps would let it ride and only take the 9 if it has value independently

Real 'sharps' would not have a fair line which is 4+ points off the opener. Given that, the 9 does have value independently, no?

[mathdotcom]

Real 'sharps' would not have a fair line which is 4+ points off the opener. Given that, the 9 does have value independently, no?

I don't get what you're saying. Sharps should have Pats -5.5 or -6 currently. I have no idea if there is currently value on the 9.

The point I am making is just http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/players-ta...s-middles.html

[FourLengthsClear]

I don't get what you're saying. Sharps should have Pats -5.5 or -6 currently. I have no idea if there is currently value on the 9.

The point I am making is just http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/players-ta...s-middles.html

The models used by 'sharps' use broadly the same variables and regression function as the oddsmakers making it highly unlikely, in the NFL, that there is a 4+ point difference between the books opener (-4.5) and the fair line calculated by said 'sharps' (in the absence of major injuries or the like).

That being the case, it is very likely that they will see value in middling the 7.

[stevenash]

Jim is a buffoon

[Jonah]

A lot of people loved the Pats giving up less than a touchdown (obviously). That was one you looked at when it came out and just new...Sorry can't give any too much credit for this one.

[D3 Mighty Ducks]

I sure as ain't betting against this red hot Denver team just yet.

[mathdotcom]

The models used by 'sharps' use broadly the same variables and regression function as the oddsmakers making it highly unlikely, in the NFL, that there is a 4+ point difference between the books opener (-4.5) and the fair line calculated by said 'sharps' (in the absence of major injuries or the like).

That being the case, it is very likely that they will see value in middling the 7.

I see, but then they are not going for the middle, they're just making two +EV bets.

It's not really a 4 point move anyways, it opened at 5.5 and it's at 9 at pinn which is just for teaser reasons. It's more like a 2 pt move.

[mathdotcom]

Denver just getting lucky. The Broncos' best player last week was Marion Barber.

[FourLengthsClear]

I see, but then they are not going for the middle, they're just making two +EV bets.

Agreed.

It's not really a 4 point move anyways, it opened at 5.5 and it's at 9 at pinn which is just for teaser reasons. It's more like a 2 pt move.

A move from 5.5 to 7.5 (the true line, as you say) is around 9%. It's a big move in NFL terms.

[mathdotcom]

Indeed it is

That is the BTJ steam effect

[SBR_John]

The -5.5 to -6 was a good line. NE does not have enough defense to close the back door.

[DOMINATER]

THIS LINE SHOULD BE ELEVEN OR THE HYPE MADE IT 5.5 I can,t believe all the suckers why do you think its already at nine, the Pats as bd as their defense ias will have very little trouble Denver is a bottom tier team Belicheck will confuse tebow and they will have a spy on him he will throw at least 2 or 3 interceptions, the only thing that bothers me and could cause problems for the pats is Denvers running game thats it. I have Dallas tonite seattle last week I am hitting 70 percent or better , thjis is easy.

[jaeguyoon]

got it at -6.5, would not play anything greater than that. I'm not even sure NE will even cover 6.5, but i have a good feeling they will.

[zoo youk]

Sitting on Pats ML -250 gonna beat the closing line by a wide margin as it's creeping up around 400

[keel44]

New England was -8 at Washington. They figure to get to -8 by kickoff. Is Denver better than Washington? ----- sure. People are afraid of the Pats breaking down on the road. Too much credit for home field advantage.

There are factors in play here by the books. I think they have teasers and ML parlays in mind when they set and move the lines.

[austintx05]

sharps hit the opener -4.5

[ThaTopMoron]

Pats up 31-3 vs Colts 4th quarter... end up winning 31-24... TREAD CAREFULLY. their shit pass defense went soft vs Dan O and the Colts started scoring with ease... as the Pats didn't care as long as time was still tick tick ticking off the clock...

Pats will be up 17 vs Denver and end up holding on by 7 as Denver fails to get an onside kick attempt with 1 minute to go and 1 timeout left.

[crzbrave]

Look at what the fukk Detroit did to Denver, what do you think the Pats are going to do?

[ThaTopMoron]

Look at what the fukk Detroit did to Denver, what do you think the Pats are going to do?

you cannot lose with this incredible thinking...

[warriorfan707]

You think Jim is the only one who thought it was a good idea to slam it when it was that low?

[tylerguy02]

Just dumped all my points on Tebow ML. Not putting real money on this soon to be shitfest.

[konck]

Beanpoledjim has to steal money from his wife to stay in action .....Im sure you want to follow that
redneck dick