1. #1
    CK
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    What I've Learned - Betting Strategies

    All,

    I wanted to share what I’ve learned over the last 4 years of sports betting. A lot of this forum has degenerated to people trying to show off, gain internet respect, trash each other, etc. but wanted to share what I’ve learned over my time betting baseball, basketball, and football, in the spirit of contributing and helping each other out – going into the holidays, we should remember that this forum is one of the few places where we’re all on the same team, trying to help each other beat the books. This is a bit of a long post, but hopefully you guys find some useful insights here.

    1) Stay away from coin-flip games. Bank on elite, reliable teams

    a. I focus on betting games where elite teams who are consistent and reliable are playing mediocre, bad teams. I stay away from elite teams playing elite teams (basically a coin-flip), and mediocre teams playing mediocre/bad teams (also a coin-flip – you just can’t rely on bad teams. Even if a mediocre team is playing a really bad team – mediocre teams are unreliable, and even in games against awful teams that they should win, they often lose)

    2) I only bet Football, and no longer bet Baseball or Basketball

    a. Baseball – too many (162) games, players don’t take each game as seriously. Additionally, I’ve come to think of baseball as a game where it’s “too difficult to score” – similar to why I don’t bet soccer or hockey, when scoring is that difficult, the better team doesn’t always win (they can get down early, pressure gets on, etc.) While over a full season, the best teams will tend to have the better records, on any one individual game, games can be too inconsistent for me.

    b. Basketball – also a lot of games (82), so players don’t take each game as seriously. In contrast to baseball, I’ve found basketball is a game where it’s “too easy to score”. As a result, back-door covers by underdogs happen much more frequently, and point spreads can so easily be lost when a team is winning by a lot once the game is already in hand. So easy to let the losing team hit another basket given how easy it is to score. While that can often help you as well (if you’re on the other side), consistency is king for me, and I prefer betting on games where you can most reliably depend on the right team winning by the right amount.

    c. Football – just the right amount of games (16) where every game matters. Just the right amount of difficulty in scoring – it’s not so hard that you get the problems you do in baseball/hockey/soccer. It’s not too easy where you get the downsides in basketball (that’s not to say that backdoor covers don’t occur in football of course). If you stick to the elite teams and stay away from mediocre/unreliable teams, more often the better team will win by the number of points they should.

    3) Bet fewer games, but bet them bigger

    a. I know the general thought process in this forum is to bet a lot of games, bet them small (1%-5% of bankroll), and grind it out by trying to hit 55%+ winners. In my opinion, that gets mentally exhausting, and it also gets you into the habit of betting a lot more coin-flip games. I much prefer finding the one or two games I really like (ie. elite team playing bad team on the road, in a tight divisional race, trying to lock up 2nd seed in playoffs), and betting them big (10%-15% of bankroll).

    4) Know the teams situations and motivations

    a. I definitely keep track of when divisions are locked up (and teams can be less motivated), when teams are playing for playoff seeding, etc.

    b. My favorite time of the year to bet (and when I consequently up my betting amount) is Weeks 13-17 in the NFL. At this point, the elite teams know exactly what they’re playing for, and are extra motivated. Athletes are people too, and just like us, are much more focused when goals are short-term, tangible, and within grasp (as opposed to earlier in the season, where players care about games, but playoffs are so far in the distant, they are prone to inconsistent play). As such I bet bigger later in the season, and much less earlier in the season where I like to get a better sense for which teams are “bankable” that season

    5) Don’t bet games just because they’re “big games” or great matchups

    a. I used to be the biggest culprit of this – betting “big games big”. I’d bet large on a game just because it’s a great matchup (ie. Superbowl). Lines are extra sharp, and these games are essentially coin-flips that can go either way.

    b. It’s been said a number of times on this forum, but it’s worth repeating – you can win just the same on the Superbowl as a lowly NCAAF match that no one’s watching. You’re either in this to make money, or in it to entertain yourself. I don’t mind sprinkling a small bet on the Superbowl or a big game I know I’m going to watch just to make things interesting, root for a team, but like I said, these are basically coin-flips you should typically stay away from.

    6) Sports are played by people, not robots or computers

    a. So often I see people on this forum get overly enamored by line movements, that books “already know what’s going to happen”, or that “sharps are moving a line, let’s follow”. At the end of the day, these games are being played by real people and they can make mistakes, are prone to get into mental slumps, etc. While it’s great to analyze line movement and find patterns / tendencies that can help you get the best lines, this shouldn’t be the sole reason you bet games. This is still a real sport played by real people, and if you don’t understand the underlying teams and matchups, betting games blindly due to line movement, because the public/sharps are on one side or another, etc. is a losing strategy in my opinion.


    I’ve stayed very disciplined to these rules this season in football, and have done very well. I bet one or two games each week, and bet them larger. I stick to elite teams playing mediocre teams and stay away from coin-flip games as much as possible. You won’t win every game of course, but in my opinion, these are the most “consistent” games that you can bet on and for me, consistency is king. I plan on betting big over the next few weeks in football (perhaps up through first round of playoffs depending on matchups), but am then scaling back and enjoying the playoffs as a football fan. I might make a few small bets for fun since I know I’ll be watching the games, but not buying into the trap of betting big games big.

    Hopefully you guys have found some of these strategies useful and can incorporate into your own betting systems.

    All the best going into the holiday season!
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  2. #2
    Vitooch
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    Good tips here. I think my biggest problem has been betting on many games I am less confident in as opposed to betting on a select few games I am much more confident in.

  3. #3
    tukkk
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    Quote Originally Posted by CK View Post
    A lot of this forum has degenerated to people trying to show off, gain internet respect, trash each other, etc.
    in which category should we put your subjective pov, because it surely doesnt belong in think tank

  4. #4
    k13
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    Who are these elite reliable teams? Do you decide before the season starts? Are they always the same teams? Can you predict the future?

    I'll pick some non-elite unreliable teams....

    Sf 10-2-1
    Hou 9-3-1
    Sea 8-4-1
    car 7-5-1

    You can pick your 4 elite reliable teams and see if you can beat that...

    GB
    NO

    That's it, you lose.

  5. #5
    k13
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    Last year I pick the Lions, Rams, Falcons, Tampa Bay ATS.

    Now you pick your four "elite" teams and see if you can top them.


    You know if you bet every game this year in the NFL by following the line move blindly you would hit ~60%
    Naturally no one has these stats out there.
    I'm sure it changes every year but unless you have actual facts, saying it's a losing strategy is rather ignorant.

  6. #6
    CK
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    No, I watch as many games as I can throughout the season to get a sense for who I think is bankable and elite. Definitely not a pre-season determination.

    Right now, I think it's Packers (altho haven't bet them much since lines have been really high), Patriots (though didn't last week), Saints (bet them huge against Tennessee last week, won but was very lucky as that game didn't go how i thought it would), Ravens (they've played down to competition a lot this season especially on the road, but they look good as of late), and Steelers.

    Don't consider Atlanta, SF or Houston elite or consistent right now.

    This week, the two games I'm big on are Patriots -6 at Denver and Saints -6.5 at Minnesota.

  7. #7
    tony_come
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    Get yourself a computer

  8. #8
    battle4life
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    ck posted the dumbest crap on this forum makes me laugh elite teams this to many games in baseball

    im a freaking degen never to many games.....we are all losers on this forum didnt u see some one post he has been here 4 years and is proud a real person would consider himself a freaking loser...jj gold is my man we wake up to read what he writes....truly freaking sad...we make fun of brock lmao the dude is degen


    you want a tip ck

    1.real way to win is dont bet
    2.i have to tell the entire forum what i think because no one in the real world gives a fukk...
    3.were all on the winning side give the money to the books instead of the ones we love....


    freaking loser shut up

  9. #9
    stikymess
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    CK, nice writeup, think you are missing the boat on baseball though, you said "too many games" maybe you are looking at it the wrong way there are angles to be found. Every team even the best teams in baseball loses at least 60 games, teams like Philly, NY, and Boston will always be plus money betting against them.

    Best of luck!

  10. #10
    Vitooch
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    Quote Originally Posted by battle4life View Post
    ck posted the dumbest crap on this forum makes me laugh elite teams this to many games in baseball

    im a freaking degen never to many games.....we are all losers on this forum didnt u see some one post he has been here 4 years and is proud a real person would consider himself a freaking loser...jj gold is my man we wake up to read what he writes....truly freaking sad...we make fun of brock lmao the dude is degen


    you want a tip ck

    1.real way to win is dont bet
    2.i have to tell the entire forum what i think because no one in the real world gives a fukk...
    3.were all on the winning side give the money to the books instead of the ones we love....


    freaking loser shut up
    This is unreadable. Are you a foreigner or just unable to complete grammatically correct sentences?

  11. #11
    135steward
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    You're off base, ck. If this is what you got from four years of gambling, you got nothing. Right off, we're not teaming up loke a bunch of freedom fighters against the books. We bet AGAINST each other. The books give us a place to do it. The rest of your spew is pure opinion, my friend. Like assholes, you know? Everybody got one, and they all stink. But thanks for sharing.

  12. #12
    Sam Odom
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    Truth is: The Gambler is fighting himself

  13. #13
    jjgold
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    Football toughest sport to beat
    Kid made a good post though

    Battle4life is a gambler, kid loves the action

    I remember one night he was on the phone with me and was broke

    "" JJ I am going out tonight and doing whatever it takes to post up tomorrow"

    This kid is latin and real tough and do you know what?? He posted up 2 dimes at bookmaker

  14. #14
    Chimneyfish
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    Quote Originally Posted by CK View Post
    Additionally, I’ve come to think of baseball as a game where it’s “too difficult to score”
    Yeah, but that's just because you're a Dodgers fan.

  15. #15
    Louisvillekid1
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    GL, but the books know who the teams the public like to bet on and pick their spots to bury them... one bad streak say 0-4 and half your bankroll is gone...
    Last edited by Louisvillekid1; 12-13-11 at 08:28 PM.

  16. #16
    CK
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    Quote Originally Posted by k13 View Post
    You know if you bet every game this year in the NFL by following the line move blindly you would hit ~60%
    Naturally no one has these stats out there.
    I'm sure it changes every year but unless you have actual facts, saying it's a losing strategy is rather ignorant.
    I hear your point, but I think even if that strategy will work in one given season, long-term, I think any system that involves the analysis of just the stats / market movement will not work. It's similar to, when investing in stocks, analyzing all the technicals and day-trading stats, but not looking at the actual company behind the stock. It may work for awhile, but theoretically doesn't make sense to me as a long-term investment strategy).

    At the end of the day, line movements are all just market movements about what people think about a certain game - no one can predict the future, the players still need to go out and get it done on the field.

  17. #17
    CK
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    Quote Originally Posted by Louisvillekid1 View Post
    GL, bout the books know who the teams the public bet and on pick their spots to bury them... one bad streak say 0-4 and half your bankroll is gone...
    Yah, that's a good point, money management is important. You're right, in reality, I probably don't risk that much on average (the 10-15% number is in the range of what I'm betting right now in football, given I find this is where I think the elite teams are most consistent). For most of the season, I was probably more in the 5% range.

    My general point I was trying to make is that rather than, for example, spreading 10 units on 5 seperate games that you're just lukewarm on (at 2units per game), bet on the games you like the most and bet more (ie. 10 units spread on 2 games for 5 units each).

  18. #18
    C-Gold
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    If you are betting more than 5 NFL games per week you are kidding yourself. Realistically you find 3 games, maybe 5 at max, maybe 2 in a bad week to bet. Bet the best teams at a fair price. Tease them if you have to. If an elite team is favored by 7 or 8 tease it down to -1 in a game they are 80% sure of winning. Betting on mediore teams at a good price will kill you. It's a sucker bet.

    The two most important things to look at are QB and defense.

  19. #19
    benjy
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    I appreciate the well written write-up. I do disagree with a number of your points but the post is an interesting take and a fine contribution.

    BOL.

  20. #20
    CK
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    Quote Originally Posted by C-Gold View Post
    If you are betting more than 5 NFL games per week you are kidding yourself. Realistically you find 3 games, maybe 5 at max, maybe 2 in a bad week to bet. Bet the best teams at a fair price. Tease them if you have to. If an elite team is favored by 7 or 8 tease it down to -1 in a game they are 80% sure of winning. Betting on mediore teams at a good price will kill you. It's a sucker bet.

    The two most important things to look at are QB and defense.
    Yep, totally agree. Going one step further, on weeks where there aren't any games that I like (ie. follow the general system of elite against mediocre, at a reasonable price), I won't even bet now. I used to just get antsy and bet games I'm so-so on just for the action - now I don't, and the hardest part was staying disciplined on those weeks. While I did win some of those times, I lost much more, and remember thinking the following week, "Crap, why didn't I just wait it out, there's a big game I like so much more this week!". Can be a hard lesson to learn...

  21. #21
    CK
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    Quote Originally Posted by benjy View Post
    I appreciate the well written write-up. I do disagree with a number of your points but the post is an interesting take and a fine contribution.

    BOL.
    Thanks

    I'm sure some of my opinions may differ from some people's. It's very possible some of my beliefs are wrong and I'm just on a good run right now, but it's where I'm at right now in terms of comfort... after years of some successes but more failures.

  22. #22
    CK
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    Quote Originally Posted by CK View Post
    This week, the two games I'm big on are Patriots -6 at Denver and Saints -6.5 at Minnesota.
    Big win for me on both of these games, the only ones I played. Think today was definitely a good example of what I'm talking about, staying away from coin-flip games and betting non-elite teams.

    Houston losing straight up at home against Carolina - should they have won? Definitely. But you never know with rookie QB Yates playing for you (even though he's been good the past few games). Giants losing straight up against Redskins - should they have won? Definitely. But just can't depend on non-elite teams, they frequently come out and shit the bed.

    - Chicago losing at home to Seattle (Chicago was looking really good before Cutler and Forte went down, they were actually a team I bet on frequently and considered underrated and reliable)
    - Tennessee losing on the road at Indy for their first win.

    These teams just aren't consistent, and they often lose games they should win. I've lost so many times on betting these kinds of games, I just stay away from them completely now, and stick to the elite vs mediocre teams at reasonable prices. They're just the most "consistent" in my opinion.

    While I wasn't on the Packers (line was too big for me to take it), and even though if I had to choose a side, I would've chosen GB, they're definitely less motivated and these are the kinds of games they could underperform in (certainly wouldn't have expected them to lose straight up, but just eeking out a win on the road was definitlely a possible outcome in my mind).

  23. #23
    jkilla990
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    CK who do you like in the late game? Im leaning baltimore but i cant seem to pull the trigger, this is a big one for me

  24. #24
    tenbas
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    CK, I totally agree with introduction post. I like your style because mine is very similar. Though I focus on soccer betting, the same strategy applies. (not everything, for sure, but a lot).
    And it is a killer year. Good luck to you, too.
    Also, important: ignore the haters, usually they are losers and cannot appreciate the advices given.

  25. #25
    CK
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    Quote Originally Posted by jkilla990 View Post
    CK who do you like in the late game? Im leaning baltimore but i cant seem to pull the trigger, this is a big one for me
    No lean, this is a coin flip for me. Borderline elite team for me on the road against a pretty good team - SD is a team that is capable of playing elite football when they're on their game.

    If I had to choose, I also like Baltimore here (they've been playing much better, consistent football the past few weeks), but again, a no-bet for me.

    Same with MNF, staying away from Pittsburgh vs SF, both very good teams playing with things riding on them. Coin-flip, could go either way. I really try now and stay disciplined, not betting on games like this even though I really want to (I'll definitely be watching both of these).

  26. #26
    CK
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    Quote Originally Posted by tenbas View Post
    CK, I totally agree with introduction post. I like your style because mine is very similar. Though I focus on soccer betting, the same strategy applies. (not everything, for sure, but a lot).
    And it is a killer year. Good luck to you, too.
    Also, important: ignore the haters, usually they are losers and cannot appreciate the advices given.
    Thanks - I know nothing about soccer, although I've heard of people who know the game doing very well betting it.

    I now stay away from soccer / hockey / baseball given my feeling towards the difficulty in scoring points, but BOL to you!

  27. #27
    Duff85
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    Quote Originally Posted by CK View Post
    All,

    1) Stay away from coin-flip games. Bank on elite, reliable teams
    Garbage - find as many tiny edges as you can and push all of them for the maximum exploitable value. If your hitting over 54% chances are your leaving money on the table. Use today as an example - if you bet almost any of the elite teams your bookie is looking forward to catching up with you on Tuesday for settlement.


    2) I only bet Football, and no longer bet Baseball or Basketball
    Knowing the rules of the sport does not really matter. Bet whatever is on the board, as long as you can reasonably (using math) assume you have an edge.

    3) Bet fewer games, but bet them bigger

    Your advice is going to send most broke. Bet everything, bet it with Kelly. More money in, more money out.

    4) Know the teams situations and motivations

    Fukkk that noise. I couldn't tell you who is good and who is shite in the Dutch Eredivisie Soccer (have I even named the league right?) but I can make bank on it.

    5) Don’t bet games just because they’re “big games” or great matchups

    If you haven't bet the game - you missed a profitable opportunity. Nearly every game on the board should have some kind of profitable opportunity. The hard part is finding it and getting the odds you need.

    6) Sports are played by people, not robots or computers
    Betting sports is just a giant math equation.

    Quote Originally Posted by C-Gold View Post
    If you are betting more than 5 NFL games per week you are kidding yourself. Realistically you find 3 games, maybe 5 at max, maybe 2 in a bad week to bet. Bet the best teams at a fair price. Tease them if you have to. If an elite team is favored by 7 or 8 tease it down to -1 in a game they are 80% sure of winning. Betting on mediore teams at a good price will kill you. It's a sucker bet.

    The two most important things to look at are QB and defense.
    Betting way more than 5 games a week profitably in NFL and i'm sure plenty of others are here too.

    Guess there is more than one way to skin a cat.

  28. #28
    C-Gold
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    Quote Originally Posted by CK View Post
    Yep, totally agree. Going one step further, on weeks where there aren't any games that I like (ie. follow the general system of elite against mediocre, at a reasonable price), I won't even bet now. I used to just get antsy and bet games I'm so-so on just for the action - now I don't, and the hardest part was staying disciplined on those weeks. While I did win some of those times, I lost much more, and remember thinking the following week, "Crap, why didn't I just wait it out, there's a big game I like so much more this week!". Can be a hard lesson to learn...

    I'm also a fan of taking the other side when a huge % of the public is on somebody. Atlanta @ Houston a few weeks ago was a great example of a sucker bet. All the rookie had to do was hand it off to his horses/top notch Offensive line and let his underrated defense play... Matt Ryan is not a road QB... It was so obviously a sucker bet I like those kinds of games.

  29. #29
    Quarius
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    So u totally pass up on hockey, baseball, basketball, soccer, just because....wow whats the point of playing if u can't pick winning games in any of these sports. Baseball u don't bet because there is 162 games in a season and the players don't care, hahahaha funniest bunch of crap i heard all damn week.

  30. #30
    lakerboy
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    Baseball is the easiest sport to bet on . Leaving it out is not smart.

  31. #31
    CK
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    Quote Originally Posted by Quarius View Post
    So u totally pass up on hockey, baseball, basketball, soccer, just because....wow whats the point of playing if u can't pick winning games in any of these sports. Baseball u don't bet because there is 162 games in a season and the players don't care, hahahaha funniest bunch of crap i heard all damn week.
    What's the point of playing if I don't bet other sports? I'm not in it to prove I can "beat the man" or "be a good capper in every sport", I'm in it to make money. After many losses in these other sports, I've just realized that for me, the sports don't suit my style of betting - things are too inconsistent.

    After a couple years now of trying to grind it out, numerous re-loads and re-deposits, I'm just at the place where I don't think it's worth it. Better to bet less games and bet bigger where I think I have an advantage and where the outcomes seem most consistent to me.

    Quote Originally Posted by lakerboy View Post
    Baseball is the easiest sport to bet on . Leaving it out is not smart.
    I get that some people consider baseball a great sport to bet on. I consider myself a reasonable baseball fan (not as big as football or basketball, but still pretty knowledgable), and I just couldn't make it work in baseball. Even terrible teams win like 50 (out of 162) games a year, and great teams lose to crappy teams all the time. Just doesn't work for me.

  32. #32
    CK
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    This weekend in football doesn't look good to me, so many games are coin-flip games in my opinion.
    - SD vs Detroit (I could see either team winning big)
    - Philly vs Dallas (could go either way)

    I also think the elite teams that I've been playing lately are playing pretty good teams this week, and laying quite a bit.

    - Patriots vs Miami (I do think Pats win, but -9.5 is a lot to cover, could easily see them winning by a fg)
    - Ravens playing Browns - same, -13.5 is a big number
    - Saints playing Falcons -6.5, same, could be close

    Scaling down betting size this week as I don't love anything. Playing a 6pt teaser on the games I like, and generally staying on the sidelines this weekend, hopefully better games to go big on next week. BOL everyone.







    1.24-Dec-11American Football/NFL(Handicap)Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots (-3.5) for Game (+102)Pending
    2.24-Dec-11American Football/NFL(Handicap)Cleveland Browns vs Baltimore Ravens (-6.5) for Game (-104)Pending
    3.26-Dec-11American Football/NFL(Handicap)Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints (-0.5) for Game (-107)Pending

  33. #33
    jjgold
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    Really comes down to beating the closing line which means knowing how line might move off opener

  34. #34
    wantitall4moi
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    LMAO a blind monkey can make 15-20K in baseball with little to no risk, and not even betting all that much per game, but isnt a sport you bet. NFL is the biggest sucker game in town, the only 'positive' football has is the limits guys are allowed to bet. So if books who are scared to take a bet of any kind these days allow the biggest bets to be made in football what does that tell you?

    beating closing line means zero, Go ask fezzik how beating the closing number has worked this year. Guy has actually been getting the best numbers and he has still lost his ass. best numbers only matter if theyre on the winning side. Moves dont win nearly enough to make these blanket statements yet it is now becoming one of the biggest myth perpetuated on the boards these days...'beat the closer and youre a winner'.

    Simplest rules.... pick a side, get the best odds, spread, vig, whatever on the side you like. Hope it wins. Thats it. But bargain hunting and getting the best number only means so much, if you still cant pick the winning side more often than not it wont matter youre still going to go broke.
    Nomination(s):
    This post was nominated 1 time . To view the nominated thread please click here. People who nominated: 135steward

  35. #35
    baskets
    Poster of the Month Twice a Month
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    Join Date: 11-24-11
    Posts: 11,691

    congrats to whoever if u got the discipline.


    Tavarsi Jackson made me go bat-shit crazy. And he will make you go crazy to if you take the Seahawks agains the Niners. That gangbanger is about to fock every wager around the planet as people think it's a good home dog angle. He's gonna make Hawks' backers' aholes bleed dollars.

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