[JayHorne3]

Have not seen a lot of discussion about this game tonight. Would like to see where everyone stands. I am leaning towards Cleveland +14 for a few simple reasons. Pittsburgh tends to play to the level of their competition and they are just 1-3 ATS in games favored by more than 10 points this season. Additionally the Browns have not lost back to back games by more than 10 points since November, 2009. Also, the Browns have only given up more than 24 points just once in their last 8 games. That would bring a lot of value to +14 if it holds true again tonight. Still, I'm hesitant to pull the trigger on this one because as we all know if the Steelers come out playing to their true potential they could cover the -14 quickly. Looking for others to chime in. Thanks

[aleiverson02]

I'm gonna buy half a point and get it at -13.5

[Jempa]

Thank you for this thread, it is much needed.

I like what you are posting, but do bare in mind the following:

The steelers will win this one, in order to be able to make playoffs since the Ravens is playing tight they want to end first in the division the have homefield advantage in the playoffs.
Why vegas has put them as such a high fav ATS today is due to the fact that the steelers are playing at their best so far this season, and since the browns are struggling a blowout is not impossible. However, the steelers always fail to impress ATS after coming out big in earlier games.
And what do we know about Cleveland? They can't seem to be able to produce much points. Only twice this season have they been able to produce over 17 points in a game. What they do have is quite good defense, averaging 20 points per game.

I am liking the under due to the fact that Pittsburgh defense will have no problem stopping Cleveland, and hopefully the Browns can shake up the Steelers offense at some point. As i see it, you get either -110 on the -14 or -110 on Under 40, and I put higher value in the under.

[kobstopa]

Have not seen a lot of discussion about this game tonight. Would like to see where everyone stands. I am leaning towards Cleveland +14 for a few simple reasons. Pittsburgh tends to play to the level of their competition and they are just 1-3 ATS in games favored by more than 10 points this season. Additionally the Browns have not lost back to back games by more than 10 points since November, 2009. Also, the Browns have only given up more than 24 points just once in their last 8 games. That would bring a lot of value to +14 if it holds true again tonight. Still, I'm hesitant to pull the trigger on this one because as we all know if the Steelers come out playing to their true potential they could cover the -14 quickly. Looking for others to chime in. Thanks

Thank you for this thread, it is much needed. I like what you are posting, but do bare in mind the following: The steelers will win this one, in order to be able to make playoffs since the Ravens is playing tight they want to end first in the division the have homefield advantage in the playoffs. Why vegas has put them as such a high fav ATS today is due to the fact that the steelers are playing at their best so far this season, and since the browns are struggling a blowout is not impossible. However, the steelers always fail to impress ATS after coming out big in earlier games. And what do we know about Cleveland? They can't seem to be able to produce much points. Only twice this season have they been able to produce over 17 points in a game. What they do have is quite good defense, averaging 20 points per game. I am liking the under due to the fact that Pittsburgh defense will have no problem stopping Cleveland, and hopefully the Browns can shake up the Steelers offense at some point. As i see it, you get either -110 on the -14 or -110 on Under 40, and I put higher value in the under.

Nice argument guys
my local book giving it Over/under 38.5 Points but Pittsburgh -14.5
I feel pitt is good enough to pull 2 touch downs & a field goal in this game; their defense today will force the ball turn over then convert
to score, rather than the usual limit of air attack/rushing yard.

[paco]

Pitt couldn't even cover against Palko and kc

[DrStale]

Browns/Under.

[killersweet]

Pitt couldn't even cover against Palko and kc

that was a road game. at home they have won with ease except 2 games (Baltimore-their biggest rival and jacksonville who always play tough against the steelers)

[blankoblanco]

Pitt couldn't even cover against Palko and kc

at KC, which can be a tough place to play, and also roethlisberger was more affected by his recently fractured thumb. but i think his thumb has gotten a little better and/or he's gotten more used to throwing with it, based on last week's performance. and now he's at home, and against a worse defense. i'm not sure which way it's gonna go, but this is a very different situation from the KC game

[DrStale]

at KC, which can be a tough place to play, and also roethlisberger was more affected by his recently fractured thumb. but i think his thumb has gotten a little better and/or he's gotten more used to throwing with it, based on last week's performance. and now he's at home, and against a worse defense. i'm not sure which way it's gonna go, but this is a very different situation from the KC game

The Browns have the best pass defense in the league.

[PAULYPOKER]

12/8/2011 8:25 PM NFL Football 102 Pittsburgh Steelers* -16½ +122 vs Cleveland Browns.................

[TehSharp]

I'm not touching this game. I can wait until Sunday. Although, buying a half of point to PItt -13.5 doesnt sound bad

[Jago2008]

I teased down the line, UConn CB is another good bet IMHO.


Wager type : Teaser
Teaser : BOL 07.5 Point Teaser

Select #1 : NCAA Basketball for Game
Connecticut 12/8/2011 7:00 PM - (EST)
Spread pk for Game
Select #2 : NFL Football for Game
Pittsburgh Steelers 12/8/2011 8:20 PM - (EST)
Spread -6½ for Game
Amount : Risking 378.00 To Win 270.00 USD

[blankoblanco]

The Browns have the best pass defense in the league.

stats on this are very deceptive

a) the browns have one of the worst run defenses in the league, so part of that is just because teams can run all over them and aren't forced to pass. if steelers running game can be effective, they can put up points, whether or not big ben gets 300 yds etc

b) they have probably played fewer strong passing offenses than any team i can think of off the top of my head. check out their schedule if you don't believe me

granted, KC's D played some awful games especially earlier in the year and then recently played the pats, but i think right now (and last week) their D is/was better than it looks on paper. and i think the browns pass D is worse than it looks on paper, and the run D in particular is quite bad

[DrStale]

stats on this are very deceptive

a) they have one of the worst rushing defenses in the league, so part of that is just because teams play a run-heavy game against them. if steelers running game can be effective, they can put up points

b) they have probably played fewer strong passing offenses than any team i can think of off the top of my head. seriously, go look at their schedule

granted, KC's D played some awful games especially earlier in the year and then recently played the pats, so i think right now (and last week) their D is/was better than it looks on paper. and i think the browns pass D is worse than it looks on paper, and the run D is very bad

True, but the Browns pass defense is still good. Playing bad teams and giving up rush yards instead can deceive but it doesnt turn their pass offense into something bad. They will keep Ben in check enough to keep it close, and a lot of running by both sides favors the dog and the under. BOL.

[frank416c]

when in doubt, take the points...

[Serbone]

The Browns have the best pass defense in the league.

Best pass defense? A lot is somewhat but not entirely because they play slow down run the ball and get behind and the other team runs the ball on them and Browns STILL play conservative as hell, run the ball and short passes only since McCoy is a stiff.
Just like NE and GB are perceived as bad against the pass... that is SOMEWHAT but not entirely because they have superior, quick strike "O"'s and then the other team gets behind and throws a lot and gets yards at garbage time.
(you know this)

[vitalogist]

Under all the way

[Serbone]

when in doubt, take the points...

I usually think that way... but not with a team that cannot score.
I say, Browns score 6-10 tonight.
QB play in the NFL is such a big issue this yr, more than ever, with the way refs hinder DB's.
So bet on a top tier QB against a bottom of the barrel guy like McCoy every time.
30-10 if Steelers are bored.
37-6 if Steelers are focused.

[BrownTown]

LOL ... Um that's b/c your grandmother could run for 110 on them. Teams don't have to pass against the Browns

The Browns have the best pass defense in the league.

[phillip1969]

Browns +14 and the over

[YouHave2outs]

serbone sometimes i hate your analysis and sometimes i love it. i'm sure it's my own biases. right now i love it