think you missed the point, FTH. analyze again
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12-05-11 11:53 PM #36
Points Awarded:
Full Time Hobo gave baskets 1 SBR Point(s) for this post.
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12-05-11 11:53 PM #37
Originally Posted by iifold
thought you might be having a brain fart
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12-06-11 12:37 AM #38
Originally Posted by Justin7
Line opened at +1.5 and immediately went to +3. ML closed over 20 cents higher than open. JAX was + money at +3 almost all the way through today at Pinny.
How do you figure?
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12-06-11 12:39 AM #39
Against a team 0-6 ATS L-6 in a communist league. Originally Posted by k13
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12-06-11 12:43 AM #40
This thread? Bizarre.
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12-06-11 01:15 AM #41
I think he meant the line went from +3 +105 to +3 +104, or something to that effect Originally Posted by wrongturn
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12-06-11 01:23 AM #42
I just want to say I posted in this redic awesome communist thread.....
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12-06-11 02:34 AM #43
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12-06-11 02:41 AM #44
Immediate is a stretch here I bet this at -1 -125 -1.5 -118 and -2.5 -110 and it was a couple days between the first bet and last bet. Originally Posted by No coincidences
Line opened at +1.5 and immediately went to +3. ML closed over 20 cents higher than open. JAX was + money at +3 almost all the way through today at Pinny.
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12-06-11 05:41 AM #45
Anyone that wins in sports betting bets both sides to a game, scams books for bonuses or middles
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12-06-11 06:37 AM #46
Do you honestly believe stuff like this or do you just post it for entertainment value? Originally Posted by jjgold
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12-06-11 07:27 AM #47
Once the market is fully settled in, max. bets don't move lines much at Pinny.
Be it a 5k bet on a college foots 1st halfs, or 100k on NFL spreads, they have way too much volume to be "shocked".
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12-06-11 07:31 AM #48
Well for me that is correct, i make more money risk free with arbing, compared to when i was a pseudo sharp who bet "good" lines on only 1 side. But..."sharps" actually bet one side to move the price, and hammer the opposite (the side they really want) later. Originally Posted by jjgold
In case any of you fukkers wonder what syndicate really means.
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12-06-11 07:37 AM #49
Originally Posted by Monte
Monte that is the only way and you prove it although Arbing is only possible if you do not live in the USA
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12-06-11 07:39 AM #50
This does not really address JJ's absurd comment. According to his statement, no one wins by just betting one side... which is obviously untrue. Originally Posted by Monte
As for your comment, that applies to syndicates and extremely large players. Use whatever term you want (sharp, pseudo-sharp, etc.), but there are pros who don't bet large enough to move markets and come over the top, and believe it or not, they do just fine by playing the sides they want.
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12-06-11 07:42 AM #51
Johny so what do you do??
So your the 1% in world that can win betting one side to a game?
If you live in USA then its bogus
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12-06-11 07:46 AM #52
It's more regulated now Johnny, most books look at Pinny/BM/Greek so it's pretty hard to find weak lines.
Unless it's books that back underdogs the public doesn't like, but if you are not a fool your limits are cut there in no time.
I don't see a way anymore to do this, yep it was possible years ago...but now?
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12-06-11 07:51 AM #53
I was/am an "pseudo-sharp" too and would be a lot better off forgetting about picking sides altogether just from a time investment POV. Originally Posted by jjgold
With that said, There are some very smart people creating/refining models that do allow them to get the better of the books openers (closers would be very tough).
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12-06-11 07:55 AM #54
Justin, how much do they generally move the # on a big market limit bet in that account?
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12-06-11 08:04 AM #55
Openers are much more beatable than closers
Line movement critical
Last night syndicates played games with Detroit/St Johns game
4 point swings back and forth the last 1hr before tip
opened like 138..went to 142 back to 138 and I think closed 142
game went under
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12-06-11 08:08 AM #56
Yes, I am in that 1% and I live in the US. I don't make a ton of money by some people's standards, but I live just fine. Originally Posted by jjgold
If you don't want to believe me, no worries, my bills will get paid either way.
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12-06-11 08:29 AM #57
this was a hidden brag post..lol
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12-06-11 08:32 AM #58
Originally Posted by Justin7
Justin broke Cwissy's confidence. Now Justin is going to get broken by consequences.
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12-06-11 08:44 AM #59
I'm up close to 6 figures total in my lifetime and I have never once arbed. Originally Posted by jjgold
Obviously, up 80k doesn't make me a baller or even on the books radars, but I do beat them betting one game at a time....no arbs, no bonuses, and a small amount of middles.
As for whether you can beat nfl... I don't think you can longterm. Lines are too sharp.... college basketball? Any fool who spends 30 mins a day researching can beat the books there
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12-06-11 09:02 AM #60
This thread from opening post to now shows why most guys arent going to win betting sports.
too many cut and dry hypothesis and too many guys who just have it 'wrong'.
Worrying about what books do and why is a bad mistake. You pick a side you bet it and you go from there.
The one thing I will say about this particular instance is that Pinnacle was probably buried at a 'worse' number, and wanted to get as much as they could at a number that might entice some play. So if they are exposed at -2.5 or even less how can they offer +3 with anything other than the odds they did? Why make them better? Theryre already loaded on the numbers betting into a +3, and having it move, would give you so why move it that late?
They offered the 3 to get some buy back, so in essence they were semi-gambling, so their opinion was that SD was the 'right side' or in the very least it wouldnt end up being a FG game. And they were correct. As long as the game didnt land on a SD 3 pt win I am sure Pinny had their exposure figured out. If it did land on 3 then they lose all the early SD money they had (which they lost anyway) and they simply pay back guys who bet the 3 with their own money. So even a 3 pt SD win isnt a loss for them. If JAGS win then they pay off the Jags bettors they enticed, but I am sure their exposure on SD minus everything all week was enough to cover that.
So really nothing to see here. Would have been a bigger deal if they were throwing up +3.5 -140 or something like that. But it was the solid 3 and they just wanted some guys to play the pennies game and get some money in there to help them soften the loss they thought they were going to take with SD.
When books do this theyre basically going to be on a free roll. That guy could have hammered the new line for another 100K and I doubt it would have moved it at all, and wouldnt have until he bet enough top make up whatever their exposure was on SD.
But I am surprised this hasnt turned into a 'pinny is sharp' thread. Because most people would see them doing what they did as "genius' when in fact it was simple math on their part.
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12-06-11 10:32 AM #61
all this thread needs is a bigdaddyQH appearance
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12-06-11 10:37 AM #62
Wantitall is a good proxy for BigDaddyQH. Originally Posted by durito
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