[JR007]

Does anyone really believe, a 60% win rate is attainable in the NFL

[suicidekings]

Depends on how many bets you're talking about making in a season.

[thebestthereis]

My step brother is like 59% in our pool picking every game this year, it is totally doable.

[JR007]

I guarantee one poster here will have a" record" of 60% by seasons end

[InTheDrink]

I try not to bet every Sunday but I still find myself looking and throwing a couple small plays out.

This week I had Minnesota -1....fukked

Teased new England and green bay....fukked

Well really more like I suck at nfl. I've been rock solid with college this year....nfl not so much.

[ttrace35]

Check tracer tread.

[Smogs]

Does anyone really believe, a 60% win rate is attainable in the NFL

Statsational and Kroyrunner are both well documented and over 60%

Sweetjones55 was well known for his NBA 60% hit rate, then he went tout and hits winners like Blaine Gabbert hits receivers

[Grinder12000]

Without a doubt - have been doing it for 20 years! 469-312 in 20 years - HOWEVER - this year only 20-19. My "A" games are now 60-16, I've been post them here! Jump on the gravy train next year!

[Emily_Haines]

Without a doubt - have been doing it for 20 years! 469-312 in 20 years - HOWEVER - this year only 20-19. My "A" games are now 60-16, I've been post them here! Jump on the gravy train next year!

[Emily_Haines]

Long term it's impossible to hit 60%

[k13]

90% is attainable picking SU.....

[No coincidences]

Absolutely.

[FourLengthsClear]

Over 1,000 or more plays, I highly doubt that anyone will hit at 60% in NFL.

If it is doable they would be rich beyond their dreams and would not be sharing their 'secrets' with anyone.

[The Seer]

yes

[FourLengthsClear]

Question for anyone who does actually think that SBR posters are hitting 60%.

Suppose, I start with a bankroll of $1000 and proceed to hit at 60% over 1000 plays at -110. If I wager 5%* of my bankroll on every play, how much would I have after those 1000 plays? We'll assume that I can get 5% down without having to worry about limts.

* According to Kelly Criterion 16% of BR is the optimal wager size based on my edge.

[NYSportsGuy210]

Question for anyone who does actually think that SBR posters are hitting 60%.

Suppose, I start with a bankroll of $1000 and proceed to hit at 60% over 1000 plays at -110. If I wager 5%* of my bankroll on every play, how much would I have after those 1000 plays? We'll assume that I can get 5% down without having to worry about limits.

* According to Kelly Criterion 16% of BR is the optimal wager size based on my edge.

Doing quick math you'll make about $70 in pure profit per every 10 bets you do this for. (Again assuming you win 6 and lose 4 per every 10 bets). Multiply $70 x 100 = roughly $700. Add another $180 on top of that with increasing bankroll amount per wager at 5%

So you go from $1000 to roughly $1900 total bank roll after 1,000 bets hitting at a 60% success rate and betting about 5% of your bankroll per bet.

[Huh]

I bet one or two games a week. only way I've ever made any money at this

[FourLengthsClear]

Doing quick math you'll make about $70 in pure profit per every 10 bets you do this for. (Again assuming you win 6 and lose 4 per every 10 bets). Multiply $70 x 100 = roughly $700. Add another $180 on top of that with increasing bankroll amount per wager at 5%

So you go from $1000 to roughly $1900 total bank roll after 1,000 bets hitting at a 60% success rate and betting about 5% of your bankroll per bet.

I think you have calculated based on $50 (5% of initial bankroll) per play
Risk amount (in $ terms) would increase with bankroll.

To make it easy, your expected bankroll growth (and thus the increment in wager amount) is 0.617% per wager.

[JR007]

think the more plays, would be regression to the mean, difficult at best with the variance, and vig, Paco,s around 57% last I looked,pretty good, think that it is doable for say 100 plays ???

[thekid667]

....

[smoke a bowl]

Looks like we have all winners here. Sweeeeeet.

[Scuba Gooding Jr]

I think the " no one hits 60 % long term " crap has been drilled into a lot of people's heads for so long that they actually believe it. If you really can't pick 6 out of 10 bets correctly you're not working hard enough at it.

[smoke a bowl]

Another big winner. Sweeeeeeet.

[big0mar]

Absolutely

[FourLengthsClear]

I think the " no one hits 60 % long term " crap has been drilled into a lot of people's heads for so long that they actually believe it. If you really can't pick 6 out of 10 bets correctly you're not working hard enough at it.

You are working hard enough, I presume?

[FourLengthsClear]

Question for anyone who does actually think that SBR posters are hitting 60%.

Suppose, I start with a bankroll of $1000 and proceed to hit at 60% over 1000 plays at -110. If I wager 5%* of my bankroll on every play, how much would I have after those 1000 plays? We'll assume that I can get 5% down without having to worry about limts.

* According to Kelly Criterion 16% of BR is the optimal wager size based on my edge.

I think you have calculated based on $50 (5% of initial bankroll) per play
Risk amount (in $ terms) would increase with bankroll.

To make it easy, your expected bankroll growth (and thus the increment in wager amount) is 0.617% per wager.

Nobody?

[smoke a bowl]

Nobody?

Stop hating sir, what's so hard about going 6 out of 10?

[Ra77er]

$370,200

[FourLengthsClear]

Stop hating sir, what's so hard about going 6 out of 10?

Nothing is hard about going 6 out of 10. 600 out 1000 is another question entirely.

[smoke a bowl]

Nothing is hard about going 6 out of 10. 600 out 1000 is another question entirely.

Of course, that was tongue and cheek. I'll just keep grinding my 531(521 on -105 accounts lol) out of 1000 and watch the pennies add up.

[Scuba Gooding Jr]

You are working hard enough, I presume?

And you're not, I presume ?

[FourLengthsClear]

$370,200

Not too far off.
It is $470,610.

Utilising full Kelly (16% of BR) the figure would be USD 125,468,486 albeit you would run into limits long before that, of course. You would reach USD 1 million after 589 plays.

[FourLengthsClear]

And you're not, I presume ?

Well I can't hit 60% long term so I guess not.

Note to self: "Must work harder".

[Scuba Gooding Jr]

Well I can't hit 60% long term so I guess not.

Note to self: "Must work harder".

What's your definition of long term ?, 3 years ?, 5 years ?, the rest of your life ?

[FourLengthsClear]

What's your definition of long term ?, 3 years ?, 5 years ?, the rest of your life ?

The rest of your life ideally but in my posts above, I have referred to a sample size of 1000 plays.