[k13]

I know a few of you wanted to see these so here they are.

TRUE POWER: How good Vegas thinks a team really is.
HOME-FIELD ADVANTAGE: The value of each team's home field.
BETTOR BIAS: How many points the public overvalues (positive numbers) or undervalues (negative numbers) a team.
POINT-SPREAD POWER: The combination of True Power and Bettor Bias.


To calculate the projected winner of any matchup:


Take True Power (home team), ADD Home-Field Advantage and SUBTRACT True Power (away team).


To calculate the projected point spread of any matchup:


Replace the True Power with Point-Spread Power (which includes Bettor Bias, just like the actual Vegas line does).




Biggest Improvement -- TRUE POWER

Denver Broncos
Miami Dolphins
Carolina Panthers


Biggest Drop -- TRUE POWER

San Diego Chargers
Philadelphia Eagles
Houston Texans


Here are the Week 13 NFL Vegas Rankings:
Pregame.com's Week 13 Vegas NFL Rankings

Rank	Team	Home-Field	True Power	Bettor Bias	Point-Spread Power
1	Green Bay Packers	4	100	2	102
2	New England Patriots	3.5	97	2	99
3	New Orleans Saints	3.5	96	0	96
t-4	Pittsburgh Steelers	2.5	95.5	1.5	97
t-4	Baltimore Ravens	3	95.5	0	95.5
6	San Francisco 49ers	3	94.5	0	94.5
7	Dallas Cowboys	2.5	93.5	1	94.5
8	Atlanta Falcons	3	93	0	93
t-9	New York Jets	3	92	0	92
t-9	Philadelphia Eagles	2.5	92	0	92
11	Detroit Lions	3	91.5	0	91.5
t-12	New York Giants	3	91	0	91
t-12	Oakland Raiders	2.5	91	0	91
14	Cincinnati Bengals	3	90.5	0	90.5
t-15	Miami Dolphins	2	90	0	90
t-15	Chicago Bears	2.5	90	-1	89
t-15	Houston Texans	3	90	-2	88
18	Tennessee Titans	2.5	89	0	89
19	Denver Broncos	2.5	88.5	0.5	89
t-20	San Diego Chargers	2.5	87.5	0	87.5
t-20	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	2	87.5	0	87.5
22	Buffalo Bills	3.5	87	0	87
t-23	Arizona Cardinals	2.5	86	0	86
t-23	Carolina Panthers	3	86	0	86
t-23	Minnesota Vikings	3	86	-0.5	85.5
t-26	Seattle Seahawks	3	85	0	85
t-26	Washington Redskins	3	85	0	85
t-28	Cleveland Browns	2.5	84.5	0	84.5
t-28	Kansas City Chiefs	2.5	84.5	-0.5	84
30	Jacksonville Jaguars	2	83	-0.5	82.5
31	St. Louis Rams	2	82	-0.5	81.5
32	Indianapolis Colts	2	79.5	-1	78.5
Week-to-week injuries (adjustments NOT yet made above)
Michael Vick (Eagles): 1.5 points
Adrian Peterson (Vikings): 1 point
Kevin Kolb (Cardinals): no adjustment

The following injuries are season-ending and adjustments have already been made to True Power for: Texans -3 (Matt Schaub); Chiefs -2 (Matt Cassel); Bears -3 (Jay Cutler).


Most Overrated and Underrated Teams

Wins	Best Team (Rk)	Worst Team (Rk)
8 or more	Packers (1)	Texans (t-15)
7 or 6 wins	Cowboys (7)	Broncos (19)
5 or 4 Wins	Eagles (t-9)	Chiefs (t-28)
3 or less	Dolphins (t-15)	Colts (32)

All good bettors know that a team's records against the spread and straight up aren't equal. For example, the Carolina Panthers are 3-8 SU but 6-4-1 ATS; the Dallas Cowboys are 7-4 SU but only 4-6-1 ATS. To the right are the teams ranked best and worst by the Vegas Rankings, grouped by SU victories. In parentheses is the team's overall True Power ranking. Once again, no team is close to the Packers, while Vegas isn't impressed with the Denver Broncos' recent winning ways.




Projected Spreads



We projected the Week 13 NFL spreads using Point-Spread Power and compared them to the current lines. The table is below, which shows you where Vegas pros think the value lies. This week, the sharps think there is value with the 49ers, Raiders, Ravens and more.
Projected Week 13 Spreads

Lines displayed from home team's perspective. True Power projects margin of victory. Point-Spread Power projects point spread.

Home Team	Road Team	Current	True Power	Point-Spread Power
Seattle Seahawks	Philadelphia Eagles*	3	2.5	2.5
Buffalo Bills	Tennessee Titans	-1.5	-1.5	-1.5
Chicago Bears	Kansas City Chiefs	-8	-8	-7.5
Miami Dolphins	Oakland Raiders	-3	-1	-1
Pittsburgh Steelers	Cincinnati Bengals	-7	-7.5	-9
Cleveland Browns	Baltimore Ravens	6.5	8.5	8.5
Washington Redskins	New York Jets	3	4	4
Houston Texans	Atlanta Falcons	2.5	PK	2
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Carolina Panthers	-3	-3.5	-3.5
New Orleans Saints	Detroit Lions	-7	-8	-8
Minnesota Vikings*	Denver Broncos	PK	0.5	1.5
San Francisco 49ers	St. Louis Rams	-13.5	-15.5	-16
Arizona Cardinals	Dallas Cowboys	4.5	5	6
New York Giants	Green Bay Packers	6.5	6	8
New England Patriots	Indianapolis Colts	-21	-21	-24
Jacksonville Jaguars	San Diego Chargers	2.5	2.5	3
*Injury adjustment included in projections (if injury adjustment is not included, and player is later determined to be out, add adjustment to projections).

[paco]

Good info here.

[the h man]

Has anyone followed these? Maybe trying all the ones with at least a 2 or 3 point overlay?

[GunShard]

That's interesting.

[jjgold]

Seems pretty accurate, I have been saying it for years football comes down to turnovers
Handicap the turnover game and do well

[Tech N9ne]

Not bad

[k13]

Colts @ Packers would be -27.5