[Goat Milk]

Risking $600 even on Baltimore -3 -120 local line tomorrow night.

I have no doubt that Baltimore will win this game. The ravens in a prime time game on thanksgiving, looking to make a statement against a young, punk team like the 49ers. Baltimore wins these games the majority of the time and mainly because of their defense. Their have been talks of their defense wearing down but not in a game like this in November.

Alex Smith will not do enough to win this game. The Ravens gameplan is to have the 49ers beat them through the air, and they know that's not going to happen. Alex Smith hasn't even faced 1 quality defense this year. The Eagles secondary shut him down for 3 and a half quarters until they choked.

This building is going to be rocking and I can see the 49ers getting rattled here. Once Smith gets sacked a few times, he's going to start making mistakes. The Ravens defense becomes their offense in games like this, so while the 49ers have a good defense, I think the field position in this game will be the deciding factor, as the 49ers go 3 and out the majority of times and lots of punts.

Also, anquan boldin is very familiar with the niners and he plays well against them. He will have another good game against Rogers who could be matchuped with him? Anyway I think that Ray Rice will have a good game and the Ravens will win this game rather easily.

Ravens on prime time games have been absolutely money this year. They thrashed Rex Ryan, who they've never lost to, and I expect them to have a similar outing here. They also found a way to win against Pit, which in my opinion is the toughest place in the NFL to play.

The travel won't be a problem for the 49ers because of their speed and youth. However, the Ravens energy won't be matched by the 49ers in this game. I've been waiting for this spot to fade the 49ers all season. They are basically playing against a team that runs the same schemes but is better at nearly every position.

I said I wasn't going to bet big on this day because I don't want it to ruin my thanksgiving, but I couldn't resist. Hoping I get this one. Good luck

[MoneyLineDawg]

Tough game man....Not sure why this warrants such a large bet for you, but that is why we gamble I guess

I lean toward SF +4 -120, but I cannot justify making a big bet on either side for this game.....Ravens seem to lay alot of eggs here and there and you never know what kind of Flacco you're going to get

GL Goat

[uup115]

I see an old Ravens team that struggles when not rested or on the road...Played physically tough Pitsburg (barely won, miracle drive/TD) nov. 6, long road trip to Seattle nov, 13 (lost), got lucky against strong Cincinnati team (won, bad call pending)...and now on a short week play a 9-1 team that's only loss was by 3 points when they led 30-14 in the 4th...WHY GAMBLE (because that is what this is)?...on a side note, if you like points this will be the last time you can get them with the 49'ers this season.

[Serbone]

Risking $600 even on Baltimore -3 -120 local line tomorrow night.

I have no doubt that Baltimore will win this game. The ravens in a prime time game on thanksgiving, looking to make a statement against a young, punk team like the 49ers. Baltimore wins these games the majority of the time and mainly because of their defense. Their have been talks of their defense wearing down but not in a game like this in November.

Alex Smith will not do enough to win this game. The Ravens gameplan is to have the 49ers beat them through the air, and they know that's not going to happen. Alex Smith hasn't even faced 1 quality defense this year. The Eagles secondary shut him down for 3 and a half quarters until they choked.

This building is going to be rocking and I can see the 49ers getting rattled here. Once Smith gets sacked a few times, he's going to start making mistakes. The Ravens defense becomes their offense in games like this, so while the 49ers have a good defense, I think the field position in this game will be the deciding factor, as the 49ers go 3 and out the majority of times and lots of punts.

Also, anquan boldin is very familiar with the niners and he plays well against them. He will have another good game against Rogers who could be matchuped with him? Anyway I think that Ray Rice will have a good game and the Ravens will win this game rather easily.

Ravens on prime time games have been absolutely money this year. They thrashed Rex Ryan, who they've never lost to, and I expect them to have a similar outing here. They also found a way to win against Pit, which in my opinion is the toughest place in the NFL to play.

The travel won't be a problem for the 49ers because of their speed and youth. However, the Ravens energy won't be matched by the 49ers in this game. I've been waiting for this spot to fade the 49ers all season. They are basically playing against a team that runs the same schemes but is better at nearly every position.

I said I wasn't going to bet big on this day because I don't want it to ruin my thanksgiving, but I couldn't resist. Hoping I get this one. Good luck

Agree.
Also, Ravens played tougher schedule, # 17 compared to SF # 29.
Also, on AT will help, SF not used to it, different cuts, blocking schemes, timing. Huge factor.
Also short week for SF, yes it matters, less time to prepare for a TOP NOTCH team.
Also SF 9-1 not as motivated, time for letdown, 5 game lead in NFCW.
Also Ravens need a win in tight conference, tied with Pitt, fighting for playoff spot.
Also Ravens "O" dramatically improved with emergence last 3-4 games of rookie WR speedster Torrey Smith, long ball threat will use his speed PLUS it opens the field for Boldin and Rice... Flacco has confirmed it is a huge difference to have him.
Also might be a little chilly for the Bay area players.
Also Gore is banged up... will he go? 20 carries? I do not think so. You do not beat the Ravens by running the ball.
Also it takes a quality QB to beat the Ravens, and Smith is not it.
(Uh, Ravens known for letdowns on the road against lesser opponents after a big win... not in this NATIONAL HOLIDAY TV NIGHT GAME spot!)

[BroDog73]

Ravens win this one by a td or more!

[Mike Hazard]

You either strongly believe in what you have said or you've been trapped in a bet bias mode as you have turned everything you have thought about in to an one sided affair, which is certainly not the case.

First of all, I prefer Ravens here over Niners myself, although I was hoping to get even better price as SF has covered in all but one games this season. I've been fading them on more or less regular basis throughout the weeks as their results have not followed their gameplay in the beginning of the season. I'm still not sold on them, but the fact is that the books have made an adjustment and the Niners beat that by rising the level of their play.

Here's some of the things you might want to observe differently. You say that Alex Smith is not good enough to beat the Ravens. I agree to some extent. But is Blaine Gabbert better? Also, Flacco is having a poor season as of late. He couldn't get going anything is several games this season, so I don't see much of an advantage for Ravens at the QB position. Both teams will look to establish the run, and both could easily fail at it. While Ravens are very good at stopping it, mind that Lewis will probably be extremely limited if he even plays. Niners have good D too. Finally, Gore has seen 8+ men in the box more than an average back, he still is successfull due to good game planning and good OL play. Oh, and Smith won't be sacked that easily. Not only he gets mass protection on passing downs, he gets rid of the ball too quickly for pass rushers to be there to punish him.

Also, if you think the field position will be a huge factor, you should probably look better at the job special teams have done for Niners. They are 1st in average starting position on offense and among the top5 on defensive part. They have excellent coverage units and both punter and kicker. Special teams are a real difference maker for this team, probably even better than their D, often overlooked.

There are couple of advantages for the hosts ofc. They have played much better at home and do not travel on a short week. The Niners have been successfull on the road, as well on the East, rested several players in the fourth quarter on Sunday, but are a bit banged up on offense. Ravens obviously have better quality at skilled positions and higher motivation. Niners are certain to win NFC West and could afford to lose one here.

Good luck with you bet and have a nice Thanksgiving. I still might be on the same side, but as I see it, the game shouldn't be that onesided as you have presented it. I'd be perfectly happy with an ugly 16-10 win

[Love The Action]

Good luck!

What is your normal wager? $600 is not massive if your normal wager is $200-$300.

However, if, for example, your normal wager is between $50-$100, I would have to question this play.

I just don't see the edge here and think this game is accurately set at the -3 to -3.5 range. If you could get -2.5(-100 to -115), then perhaps your play would be warranted. However, at this number, I don't see it. You have two teams with equal qualitative factors with motivational angles (brother v. brother, etc.) and situational angles matching up. However, the quantitative factors are also remarkably equal with both teams within just a few percentage points of each other in advanced efficiency stats on both side of the ball (Off/Def DVOA, EPA, EPA/P, SR%, etc.). Therefore, you have two very equal teams with home field advantage accurately reflected in the spread. This one is essentially a coinflip.

Good luck though, I hope you cash. I'm starting to think the under would be the better play here....but still have more work to do on this game.

[thebestthereis]

Everyone is on Balimore, I may pull the plug. Good luck!

[Scoobdog24]

49er's +3 1/2 & ML.

[rockhardfister]

This is a FG game. I like the hook.

[dontbuythehook]

well so much for baltimore

[jjgold]

How does Flavco hold up in big games??? Well it seems ok although SF is very good.

Common real tough game to bet

[bigsmitty]

Good luck Goat. I'm on SF +3.5 myself. I hope for your sake (and your TV's) they don't decide to run Rice for all of three plays again...Cheers

[Sunde91]

Niners late season skid starts now

probably 3-3 to close the season losing by 7+ here

I'd be shocked to see them win this game

[Br0nxer]

Actually think 9ers definitely better team

But like ravens in this game

How many times 9ers comimg east and winning

Think its a miracle if they win this game

Im slamming balty ML

[DarkNite]

This game is the tale of two Harbaugh brothers. They both are great coach.
I like Bal - points.

[wilwin]

I'm sorry you ruined your Thanksgiving.

This will not be a letdown game. Harbaugh is already playing it up to his players that the NFL is trying to screw them by forcing them to travel so far against a good team. It's the "us against the world" mentality that has made this team great.

Last week they played the Cardinals and they really should have blown them out by 30, but the play calling on offense and defense was very vanilla (they didn't have to blitz once against Skelton).

Where the game will be won and loss will be decided by how effective the defenses are. Ravens are one of the most aggressive defenses with its blitzing, while the 49ers are actually able to generate a pass rush without blitzing much. This is where I believe the 49ers will use that aggression to their advantage. A lot of misdirection plays and keeping extra blockers will be the reason they will prevail.

On the opposite end, Flacco's strength is his big arm. His completion % is only 55% this year and 49ers play to not give up the deep bomb that Flacco will be looking for. I could see the Ravens get one or two big plays, but that's it. I've never seen Flacco win a game with his precision passing and he's going to need to be accurate against a team that's second in the league in interceptions.

[Shafted69]

This game is a toss up and I believe the 49ers defense is waaaaaaaaaaaay better than the Ravens D. And Defense will prevail.

[paco]

On the other side goat.

GL.

Have a happy thanksgiving.

[Big Bear]

Ravens are a MUCH better team at home. Cannot believe Ravens won at Pittsburgh, I think that was more of the steelers just sucking.

But Ravens do play better at home. It will be tough for the 49ers to travel across country on 3 days rest and play a road night game on thanksgiving.

I think all the home teams have a huge advantage tomorrow.

[TechnicallyFoul]

Agree. Also, Ravens played tougher schedule, # 17 compared to SF # 29. Also, on AT will help, SF not used to it, different cuts, blocking schemes, timing. Huge factor. Also short week for SF, yes it matters, less time to prepare for a TOP NOTCH team. Also SF 9-1 not as motivated, time for letdown, 5 game lead in NFCW. Also Ravens need a win in tight conference, tied with Pitt, fighting for playoff spot. Also Ravens "O" dramatically improved with emergence last 3-4 games of rookie WR speedster Torrey Smith, long ball threat will use his speed PLUS it opens the field for Boldin and Rice... Flacco has confirmed it is a huge difference to have him. Also might be a little chilly for the Bay area players. Also Gore is banged up... will he go? 20 carries? I do not think so. You do not beat the Ravens by running the ball. Also it takes a quality QB to beat the Ravens, and Smith is not it. (Uh, Ravens known for letdowns on the road against lesser opponents after a big win... not in this NATIONAL HOLIDAY TV NIGHT GAME spot!)

Very informative

[tanner40]

On it too goat. Slamming it.

[PAULYPOKER]

Lewis (foot) will be a game-time decision for Thursday's game against the 49ers,

49ers #1 defense & #7 offense

Balt. #3 defense & #7 offense

49ers beat 3 quality teams.

Balt.beat 3 quality teams/ Pitt Twice making it 4.

The line should be a PK.

This game is a coin toss at best.

The over has a slight advantage of cashing.

The Ov/Un line should be 41.5..

Good Luck.........

[PAULYPOKER]

This is a FG game. I like the hook.

Or this....

[bengals888]

[uup115]

all very good points...my point is and i think that most would agree....This is not an easy pick...you can find many more softer spots to bet on?

[Fishhead]

[uup115]

you are right...they all think they have a lock.

[suicidekings]

I don't necessarily disagree that the Ravens will win this game, however, SF wins games through physical play at the line of scrimmage, both on offense and on defense. I don't believe for one second that the Ravens are going to win this game by dominating on the ground, as Ray Rice and Frank Gore are about equal, but SF has a more effective defensive line in terms of run defense (BAL has a better pass rush). The offensive lines of the two teams are actually remarkably similar statistically in overall effectiveness (ie: they're both average). Regarding QBs, Flacco has been playing well recently, but he's not dramatically better than Alex Smith, except in terms of range. Flacco also has a better receiver group to throw to. Alex Smith will be working against one of the best secondaries in the NFL, but the SF offense doesn't ask him to throw 50 yard bombs. He has one of the higher completion rates in the league and he keeps the chains moving.

I kind of think Baltimore will win through the air or the Niners will win on the ground. Either way, each team's defensive strengths will force the other team to become largely one dimensional and therefore not as effective. I think this will impact SF a little more and I agree that Baltimore has a bit of an edge in winning this game, but I don't agree that this matchup warrants a big play. This will not be an easy win for either team. Any notion that this game doesn't mean as much to SF because they're 9-1 is complete garbage. This is the featured game on Thanksgiving night, not to mention the Harbaugh v. Harbaugh angle... It's a big deal.

[JGetty]

I leaned 49ers this game but it will be a good one! BOL!

[setholdsup]

Baltimore has lost against the Titans, Jags, Seachickens, and beat Arizona by 3.

Flacco - 12TDs - 8INT - 8FUM - 55.5% CMP - 6.63 YDS AVG
Smith - 13TDs - 4INT - 4FUM - 62.4% CMP - 7.21 YDS AVG

Takeaways/Giveaways

BAL 21/18
SF 26/9

Baltimore D facing a lot of injuries

Frank Gore>Ray Rice

Niners ML +155

[Cobra07751]

$600 Massive? That is a one month subscription for my Don Best..

BOL

[PAULYPOKER]

$600 Massive? That is a one month subscription for my Don Best.. BOL

You shouldn't knock one's bet size,at least he is keeping it real.........

[secretstash]

$600 Massive? That is a one month subscription for my Don Best..

BOL

says the non pro poser

-stash

[eglem91]

Agree with this one.