[brahmabull117]

where did this idea that fading the public is a "sharp" play (that the public is usually wrong or that if a play is very heavily backed by the public, it's usually a bad play) start from???



There's a guy in the NFL forum named Goldengreek who basically does nothing but play big anti public bets and he's hit 50% for the season in the NFL/NCFB over a pretty large sample size. You look at the beat the prick contests and the public hit about 50% on that


So where did this idea that if a play is very heavily backed by the public, it's automatically a bad play start from??


(note: I'm not talking about reverse line movements, I'm talking about all the people on this forum who seem to think that any anti public underdog is automatically a "sharp" play)

[allabout the $$$]

how many fukkin threads do you have to start about the same shit over and over again it was nice and peaceful in players talk when you were in the sub forums go back

[ShogunRua]

OMFG. You just started this same stupid fukkin thread a few days ago. Mods, please delete this.

[doublej95]

no such thing as sharp or square, just winners and losers.

[BigDofBA]

I thought this was the same thread from a month ago.

[brahmabull117]

no such think as sharp or square, just winners and losers.

agreed


but why do so many people on here act like, if a play is heavily backed by the public, it's a tainted play??



I just want to know and understand where this line of thinking came from/how it began

[big0mar]

Money will almost always be equal

Use your head

[BigDofBA]

No one on this board is sharp.

Real sharps wouldn't waste their time with Internet pissing matches.

It's about picking winners, not betting underdogs or favs all the time.

I know a guy that bets through a local. He bets about 5k a game but he only places a bet like once every couple of weeks and he always backs good teams.

I would consider him a sharp. He picks his spots and unloads and it's never on a crappy team. He doesn't trust bad teams so he waits for good spots to take teams like LSU, Green Bay, etc.

[big0mar]

agreed


but why do so many people on here act like, if a play is heavily backed by the public, it's a tainted play?? Are these just the psuedo sharp idiots who want to pretend to be smart by going against the public??



I just want to know and understand where this line of thinking came from/how it began

Just ask yourself why a book would have even action when 75% of the bettors are on one side.

There are multiple answers to this question.

[brahmabull117]

No one on this board is sharp. Real sharps wouldn't waste their time with Internet pissing matches. It's about picking winners, not betting underdogs or favs all the time. I know a guy that bets through a local. He bets about 5k a game but he only places a bet like once every couple of weeks and he always backs good teams. I would consider him a sharp. He picks his spots and unloads and it's never on a crappy team. He doesn't trust bad teams so he waits for good spots to take teams like LSU, Green Bay, etc.

I wonder why he waits so long - there's good spots with good teams every week - Look at your boys this week against that fraud of a team in Baylor

[doublej95]

Gambling terms from Docs Sports.

Sharp - When it comes to sports betting a sharp is a sophisticated or professional gambler.

Square - A novice when it comes to sports betting.


A sharp better can be on a dog, favorite, same side as the public or against the public. But there is only two side's in the end winning and losing. Most people on here aspire to be a sharp better and have no clue as to what it really means. All it really means is that guy is a winner.

[BigDofBA]

I wonder why he waits so long - there's good spots with good teams every week - Look at your boys this week against that fraud of a team in Baylor

Our starting RB is out for the season.

Our #1 All-American WR is out for the season.

We should cover but I dont like betting on my teams. That being said, if you bet OU to cover every game the last two years, you would be up money.

[Tech N9ne]

Ravens -6.5 vs Seattle sure looked good didn't it brahma ??

[ngates815]

Hey brahma, I'm a power bottom, you interested?

[brahmabull117]

Our starting RB is out for the season. Our #1 All-American WR is out for the season. We should cover but I dont like betting on my teams. That being said, if you bet OU to cover every game the last two years, you would be up money.

OU's 3rd stringers on offense could slice and dice Baylor's defense



come on now brah

[BigDofBA]

Unless you have inside info, you're still just gambling. Vegas knows more than you do. Accept it.

[big0mar]

Gambling terms from Docs Sports.

Sharp - When it comes to sports betting a sharp is a sophisticated or professional gambler.

Square - A novice when it comes to sports betting.

A sharp better can be on a dog, favorite, same side as the public or against the public. But there is only two side's in the end winning and losing. Most people on here aspire to be a sharp better and have no clue as to what it really means. All it really means is that guy is a winner.

Those are rather ambiguous. Much easier to look at it like this:

Sharp: +EV
Square: -EV

[brahmabull117]

Ravens -6.5 vs Seattle sure looked good didn't it brahma ??

before the game in TTracer's thread - http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/players-ta...play-week.html

Facts are facts - the Ravens are a team that tends to play down to their competition

terrible play here


Ravens are 1-3 ATS vs teams under .500 this year and they're coming off a very emotional win against the steelers

[Goat Milk]

There is no such thing as a square or sharp play. If 84% of the public is on the Heat to beat the magic, people will say, "you square! take the heat and you'll get buried in the long run!" These claims make you sound idiotic. In the end, the play that wins is the right side. Sure there are bad beats where you think you made a good call but in the end all that matters is if you win or lose. There is no such thing as a sharp play. If 64% of the public is on the Heat -2, and yet the line moves down to Heat -1 (RLM), that does not make the Opposing side a Sharp play. Nothing is a sharp play and nothing is a square play. You are only a sharp player if you make good decisions and a square player if you make poor decisions.

I don't know who these guys are listening to on the forum about this sharp/square. If you continue to not take a certain play because its "square" then you will be out of the game in a few years max. "Square" plays, as many refer to them, cash at a solid percentage.

Sharp players take everything into consideration, but they do not let public %'s sway them from their original pick (based on x,y,z). A square player could be something that takes everything into consideration and even analyzes things TOO MUCH. Stop trying to analyze what Vegas is thinking because they are not picking a side on 95% of games!!!

Books try to get even action on every game. Theres only certain times where they are begging to to take a certain side (i.e. gambling themselves).

[brahmabull117]

There is no such thing as a square or sharp play. If 84% of the public is on the Heat to beat the magic, people will say, "you square! take the heat and you'll get buried in the long run!" These claims make you sound idiotic. In the end, the play that wins is the right side. Sure there are bad beats where you think you made a good call but in the end all that matters is if you win or lose. There is no such thing as a sharp play. If 64% of the public is on the Heat -2, and yet the line moves down to Heat -1 (RLM), that does not make the Opposing side a Sharp play. Nothing is a sharp play and nothing is a square play. You are only a sharp player if you make good decisions and a square player if you make poor decisions. I don't know who these guys are listening to on the forum about this sharp/square. If you continue to not take a certain play because its "square" then you will be out of the game in a few years max. "Square" plays, as many refer to them, cash at a solid percentage. Sharp players take everything into consideration, but they do not let public %'s sway them from their original pick (based on x,y,z). A square player could be something that takes everything into consideration and even analyzes things TOO MUCH. Stop trying to analyze what Vegas is thinking because they are not picking a side on 95% of games!!! Books try to get even action on every game. Theres only certain times where they are begging to to take a certain side (i.e. gambling themselves).

somebody on this forum who actually has a clue, wow

[Glitch]

i know its your thing to start a lot of threads but why do you gotta start a bunch about the same thing.

unless all games are rigged- of course handicapping is important, and unless all lines-makers are psychics then of course you can beat some lines.

what the f*ck man.

[big0mar]

Who said they are picking a side? They usually aren't, but that doesn't mean you shouldn't read the market.

[brahmabull117]

i know its your thing to start a lot of threads but why do you gotta start a bunch about the same thing. unless all games are rigged- of course handicapping is important, and unless all lines-makers are psychics then of course you can beat some lines. what the f*ck man.

this is not about the same thing that I've discussed before


I wanted to know how this idea that "fading the public" started

[BigDofBA]

There is no such thing as a square or sharp play. If 84% of the public is on the Heat to beat the magic, people will say, "you square! take the heat and you'll get buried in the long run!" These claims make you sound idiotic. In the end, the play that wins is the right side. Sure there are bad beats where you think you made a good call but in the end all that matters is if you win or lose. There is no such thing as a sharp play. If 64% of the public is on the Heat -2, and yet the line moves down to Heat -1 (RLM), that does not make the Opposing side a Sharp play. Nothing is a sharp play and nothing is a square play. You are only a sharp player if you make good decisions and a square player if you make poor decisions.

I don't know who these guys are listening to on the forum about this sharp/square. If you continue to not take a certain play because its "square" then you will be out of the game in a few years max. "Square" plays, as many refer to them, cash at a solid percentage.

Sharp players take everything into consideration, but they do not let public %'s sway them from their original pick (based on x,y,z). A square player could be something that takes everything into consideration and even analyzes things TOO MUCH. Stop trying to analyze what Vegas is thinking because they are not picking a side on 95% of games!!!

Books try to get even action on every game. Theres only certain times where they are begging to to take a certain side (i.e. gambling themselves).

Smartest thing I have read all day.

Vegas typically doesn't care what side you are on. The juice will beat most people over time. They just want you betting. In a sense, we're all suckers.

[doublej95]

this is not about the same thing that I've discussed before


I wanted to know how this idea that "fading the public" started

that idea came from that Vegas was built by losers not winners. gamblers lose more often than not so whats the bright idea to be a winner? fade the losers. Whoever came up with that idea sound great but it didn't work.

[brahmabull117]

Smartest thing I have read all day. Vegas typically doesn't care what side you are on. The juice will beat most people over time. They just want you betting. In a sense, we're all suckers.

exactly


I laugh at all these people going "This is the biggest play of the year, Vegas won't lose this and neither will I"



Vegas has the benefit of being able to hit about 49% ATS long term and make a fortune, you don't. Fukking idiots -

[big0mar]

this is not about the same thing that I've discussed before


I wanted to know how this idea that "fading the public" started

It started with the general premise that someone wagering $1,000,000 has a higher EV than someone wagering $10. The same logic that applies to any type of marketplace. This is basic economics.

[big0mar]

exactly


I laugh at all these people going "This is the biggest play of the year, Vegas won't lose this and neither will I"



Vegas has the benefit of being able to hit about 49% ATS long term and make a fortune, you don't. Fukking idiots -

Its pretty obvious you lack even a rudimentary understanding of market efficiency and the basic economic concepts that any bookmaker relies upon.

Just the fact that you are referencing what Vegas hits ATS shows how clueless you are.

[Romanov]

Sharp play = finding MATHEMATICAL value
Square play = using ESPN

[big0mar]

Brahma, when are you going to create a thread asking why Goldman Sachs makes so much money?

[doublej95]

Short story about vegas and lines and backs up what Goat Milk said about even action.


One of the most famous stories involving the point spread occurred after Super Bowl III when the New York Jets, who were 18-point underdogs, upset the Baltimore Colts. A reporter asked oddsmaker Bob Martin if he was embarrassed about making that point spread, and Martin replied that was one of the best numbers he ever made because it split the betting money down the middle

[brahmabull117]

Sharp play = finding MATHEMATICAL value
Square play = using ESPN

and coincedentally, the only play where there is mathematical value is the one that's extremely anti public right??

[big0mar]

and coincedentally, the only play where there is mathematical value is the one that's extremely anti public right??

You still don't get it.

Quick, how did you compile your algorithm to determine market share for each game???

The fact remains, that sharp bettors understand where the money is and why. You do not.

[allabout the $$$]

why did you bring up golden greek for when he loses he still shows up every day unlike you who goes into hiding damn loser you keep asking all of these questions y dont you learn money management and build a bankroll then come back

[brahmabull117]

You still don't get it. Quick, how did you compile your algorithm to determine market share for each game??? The fact remains, that sharp bettors understand where the money is and why. You do not.

I don't because I don't really care either way