[gregm]

I just posted in a nba thread and was thinking about how many people made a good amount of money of the nba, it was the biggest moneymaker on my spreadsheet the last 3 years . Is everyone else as pessimistic as I am over this after tonight?

Did any of you guys ever work on harabolos play charting, I knew a guy who did, the models and data this guy built is incredible.

Haralabos



http://www.negativedunkalectics.com/...nd-in-nba.html

http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/pos...onaghy-scandal

http://twitter.com/#!/haralabob

[moses millsap]

His blog, but I don't think he updates it anymore:

http://aloneinthecorner.com/

[gregm]

I just read his twitter thread Moses, I dont think he has updated his blog in a long time.

Its funny to read these modelers through the years on the think tank on major wager and sbr, Voulgaris had 15 people working on play charting every call from various places around the court from various referees in in the NBA for entire seasons. Next time anyone in the think tank posts about scraping stats and other minutiae for models, they should look into this guys set up and data .

This is a great quote on voulgaris on modeling and data.

"The data just helps you build models either through strict regression or through supposition.” He explains that the difference between database handicapping and predictive modeling is partly what sets Voulgaris apart from the pack in the world of NBA gamblers. “I think a lot of people have databases and they do things like ‘team x does x in a back to back situation’ and they mine their databases for information like that, but that information is by and large useless.”

What Voulgaris does is different. He simulates the outcomes based on the data in his database using his own model of what teams will do given particular matchups. Both his model and his database is extremely valuable. He has spent millions of dollars and countless hours developing it, more than most NBA franchises have spent on analytics. And he has seen many millions in returns because of it.

This is an interesting quote from voulgaris.

His predictive models rely on an immense amount of data that is constantly being updated. This requires him to watch a LOT of NBA games. “A lot of what I do is just watch more basketball than any other human,” he told Pokercast. “I watch about 400 games from beginning to end. I watch at least one or two quarters of maybe 85-90% of games. I may just watch every defensive possession or every offensive possession or just watch particular lineups or matchups.”

[grizzy]

His wife is a smoke show and that house is insane. Guy must be a friggin genius.

[A.M.S.]

nice clips

[Inkwell77]

this is the dude they are talking about in the donaghy book. Thanks for the find!

has 15 dudes working for him at least, crazy.

[Pancho sanza]

Anyone have this guys e mail address?

[JAKEPEAVY21]

he also has a couple of big scores in live poker tournies

[gregm]

He is on twitter but you are not going to be able to email him. He probably isnt a really happy guy anyway today.

If you are interested in how he collects data this article is pretty interesting.

http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/pos...abos-voulgaris

"If people are wondering what type of database it is and I'd be happy to explain it a bit more.

Basically, it's five years of every single play that has occurred in every NBA game. I didn't invent the collection of data. All the data that I have is out there for anyone that wants to do the same. It took me about nine months and a few hundred thousand to perfect the collection and organization of the data such a way that it is valuable for predictive purposes. I use a program called "Stata" to help with analysis of the data, but you could also use a freeware program called "R" to do the same.

In addition, I'd like to add that I employ two very skilled programmers. They wrote much of the code that allows me to collect and organize the data in such a way that it's much easier to analyze. I credit them for the collection of the data.

People are questioning whether or not I am overstating how much data I have, as I mentioned anyone willing to spend the time or the money would be able to get the same data. The issue isn't the data, its what you do with it when you get it.

The play-by-play data (screenshot from the system) has the following:

The time of the possession.
The player who initiated the possession (in the case of a steal or defensive rebound).
The opposing player who initiated the possession (in case of a missed shot or turnover) -- including the location on the floor the shot was taken from, and some other unique identifiers we use to classify the the type of possession.

In the basketball analytic world (stat geeks) people talk of Offensive and Defensive Efficiency (points per possession). I take it a step further and break down the efficiency of different types of possessions. Possessions off of turnovers, made baskets, missed shots (broken down a step further types of missed shots), etc."

Can you talk a bit about how your system predicts who will be guarding whom?

It's pretty simple, but its also proprietary so I'd rather not give out too much information on it. Basically we have a script that goes through the play-by-play looking for certain players and instituting a decision tree as to what position they are likely to be playing on offense and who they are likely to guard on the other team.

Some of the things it looks for are best offensive players at the 1,2,3 position and best defensive players at the corresponding positions. Bruce Bowen and Shane Battier are a few examples of players that we assign a "stopper" value and assume that if they are on the court they are likely to be guarding the other teams best offensive player at the corresponding position(s).

Its not exact but its fairly accurate. I am also able to go through a game after its over and correct the defensive and offensive assignments as needed, ideally I'd like the program to learn from the corrections but we are not at that point yet.

[Pokerjoe]

It's hurting me, but I could actually use the break, I'm exhausted at this time of year, when all the sports are going. I'll really miss it at about Thanksgiving, because I'm done with CFB then.

I looked into doing Euro basketball, which I've wanted to do for years but just haven't had the time. But the books have -115 lines, so, nevermind.

[Inkwell77]

Anyone have this guys e mail address?

I'm pretty sure it's

If anyone is interested please contact me bob (@) nbaplaycharting.com

[Inkwell77]

Wait, maybe not. That doesn't look to be a working site anymore

[roasthawg]

Awesome approach to beating hoops... this is the type of commitment it takes to be profitable imo.

[pokergod18]

Haralabos is the man!!

[gmcarroll33]

He did a well a while back at 2+2. Enjoy

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/19...is-bob-763371/

[gregm]

Great thread gmcarroll. I hadnt seen that. I wish there were more guys out there like haralabos who actually are intelligent and actually use the english language well to get a point across.

So many try to use obscure math and probability terms, talk about their supposed "edge" after losing games and regurgitate Stanford Wong without really understanding his books or really expressing any of wongs concepts , all to hide the fact they really dont have anything to show for all their gambling or at least any way to verify their claims, you just have to take their word for it that they are winning professionals. I have seen so many people at major wager and even here boast about their models which is comical compared to Dr. Bob and Voulgaris, look at the massive amount of data he has collected and the amount of people Haralabos has working for him and all for one sport.

At least in poker you can pretty much tell who are professionals, sports gambling is pretty much conjecture. That thread is fascinating, thanks for posting