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Lots of Public Road Dogs This Week in the NFL
Usually there is only one, maybe two the most a week. We potentially have six this time.
Also they are all good match ups coincidentally except for one game.
+3.5 Giants
+6 Bills
+1 Saints
+3 Detroit
+2 Patriots
+3 Rams
How will they turn out?
I'll be back later with some numbers for the season so far.
Who knows the way this season is going
Question, what does "public road dogs" mean?
Public - The majority of wagers are coming in on. The majority see this as the favorable play.Originally Posted by SASH
Road - Team that is not at home.
Dog - Underdog
Did some quick calculations : Public Road Dogs in the NFL this year.
6-14-1 ATS
5-16 SU
Problem is, you look at those trends and tend to think it will balance out more than follow previous. In other words, the time to back public road dogs may be past, given the imbalance so far and the way the NFL always seems to conveniently settle up any and all trends in the end so that there are no obvious ones.
I think one of toughest cards to date
I am feeling more comfortable right now with hockey
I'm glad you mentioned that stats because on an another forum someone mentioned their list of gambling rules for the NFL. One of the rules being to Never bet on a Road Favorite at all. Your stats defends this rule.
What does road dog stats have to do with road faves
I agree with you mostly as we saw with over/unders, Overs hitting at a high rate now almost back to even.
The difference here is the "public" is a broad and undefined term so not sure if it is even considered a trend.
Wished I had some data for the last 5 year or more.
Fading one stat to follow another stat.What does road dog stats have to do with road faves
Giants and Bills will be the only ones that cover
this is the week to break out the underdog teasers
tons of close games I think
Giants look like the play the others might be trouble
tease Giants, Saints, and Rams
Only thing you have to worry about the Giants is look ahead. They just won a big game against the Patriots away. Now travel across country against 49ers tough defense and have the Eagles next week at home. I love my Giants but I wouldn't bet the giants straight up, if you find another team to tease with, I'd tease with it but i wouldn't bet them this week straight up. It can be trouble.
good to know. considering a tenn/wash teaser.
Who do you like this week k13? My only leans are San Fran and the bears, maybe new England.
only the pats will win, rest are burials
^^^ Pats will not win, it's going to be a massive burial from all the people chasing on sunday night football, going with the "sure thing" Patriots to win their money back they lost on the day games.......Jets are playing amazing lately and everyone is healthy and ready to rock.....They are also unstoppable at home so far this season. Jets under Rex Ryan are 2-0 at home vs. the Pats as well, they always get up big time for this game
Of all of these games, I like all of the home teams except for the Bears. Lions coming off the bye should be able to take it in a close one
absolutely, agreed
k so random guy and brahma absolutely lock/immortal-destiny/easiest lock of lifetime agree that jets roll pats = put house/wives/cars on NE
agree 100%.
They win SU but I don't know about the cover. Trust. Too lazy to do a write up. Maybe in a day or two.cowboys will cover
Giants will get slapped in the face and sent home. SF is for real!
Good Stuff!
Thanks Ctown......and greatest ass ever, looks like 2 baked hams^^^
Sanchez usually has 1 game/yr where he dominates the Pats D. He didn't do it in the first matchup, so it very well could be this week.
I like the matchup for the Pats this week though. They dominated the Jets a month ago, and that was without Mayo and Vollmer, their best LB and O lineman.
Should be a great game either way
Just wondering, how could you like the matchup? Not trying to start a flame war, but most everyone (unbiased opinions) will agree that the Jets matchup very well against the Pats. With Kyle Wilson playing great this season in the slot, the Jets have possibly the best 3 man CB group in the league.....On offense, the Jets passing game has begun to look pretty good lately, and they also got the running game going as of late as well. Should not be a problem to move the ball on the Pats D, especially through the airSanchez usually has 1 game/yr where he dominates the Pats D. He didn't do it in the first matchup, so it very well could be this week.
I like the matchup for the Pats this week though. They dominated the Jets a month ago, and that was without Mayo and Vollmer, their best LB and O lineman.
Should be a great game either way
The Patriots did not dominate the Jets BTW earlier this season. They did not play all that well, and still had a chance to win it at the end if they forced a stop on 3rd down on that last drive and they had a few chances. The defense was out of gas, and didn't get it done. Credit to Brady. Either way, in order to dominate an opponent, you need to blow the game out of reach in the 4th quarter, and this was a pretty close game all the way through.
We can all agree that it should be a pretty good game, but I think home field advantage and the way these teams are trending lately will give the Jets the advantage. I expect Pats fans to believe they will win it as Jets fans believe their team will get the job done.
Here's to an exciting and injury free game
I will be there rooting my Jets on
People thinking NE is still good remind me of PAULYPOKER's Chargers Lock thread. This isn't the same Pats team, Brady does't look right, the defense lets you throw all day long. Sanchez could have 400 yards against the Pats. As for the Giants, maybe, SF is good, so are the Giants but I'm averse to gambling with Eli involved. You don't know if you'll get precise, zip on his throws, methodical Eli, or the one who tackles himself awkwardly during a scramble and fumbles the ball without being touched. That guy, and Cutler worry me when going up against a good pass rush.
I like the matchup based on how they played last game. Sanchez only had 166 yards on 26 attempts, without the leader of the Pats D. A lot went right for the Jets, namely the Hernandez drop and the kick return. If Hernandez makes that fairly easy catch, the Pats go into the half with a 17-7 lead and the ball to start the 3rd. Pretty rough situation for Sanchez to bring them back from 10+ down, right? Instead, Hernandez deflects it and Cromartie snatches it, making it a 10-7 game at half. The 88 yard kick return after the Pats scored on their first possession of the 3rd was huge too, because Sanchez was having a tough time moving the ball. Getting it at the 20 was a huge momentum shift. I think we can both agree those were pretty flukey/lucky plays, that certainly changed the view from a dominant Pats lead to a close game.Just wondering, how could you like the matchup? Not trying to start a flame war, but most everyone (unbiased opinions) will agree that the Jets matchup very well against the Pats. With Kyle Wilson playing great this season in the slot, the Jets have possibly the best 3 man CB group in the league.....On offense, the Jets passing game has begun to look pretty good lately, and they also got the running game going as of late as well. Should not be a problem to move the ball on the Pats D, especially through the air
The Patriots did not dominate the Jets BTW earlier this season. They did not play all that well, and still had a chance to win it at the end if they forced a stop on 3rd down on that last drive and they had a few chances. The defense was out of gas, and didn't get it done. Credit to Brady. Either way, in order to dominate an opponent, you need to blow the game out of reach in the 4th quarter, and this was a pretty close game all the way through.
We can all agree that it should be a pretty good game, but I think home field advantage and the way these teams are trending lately will give the Jets the advantage. I expect Pats fans to believe they will win it as Jets fans believe their team will get the job done.
Here's to an exciting and injury free game
I will be there rooting my Jets on
I expect Belichick to turn the D line loose a bit, like we've seen a few times this year. I think he's playing a lot of bland schemes with them so far because he wanted to save the surprising, attack D for the playoffs, but now that the playoffs aren't as "guaranteed" as expected with the surge of the Bills, I think he turns it on early.
I do agree that the Pats and Jets are trending opposite ways, but I can never count a team out with the leadership that the Pats have. The D played great last week, up until the very end, where they didn't take advantage of some Eli mistakes that could have ended it.
It seems that every season between these 2, 1 game is a dominant win for the Pats, 1 for the Jets, and the last one is close. I hope that changes this time around lol, but I am certainly nervous about this game. Both teams are going to be hungry, and both have the playmakers to make it exciting til the end. I agree with you 100%, hopefully everyone stays healthy and we get to watch a great game
rams looks good to me, browns have serious problems throwing the ball so they are a one dimensional team that can be stopped easily with hillis injured
Buy a half point there in case STL loses by 3
but yea I agree, STL should take it. CLE struggles against the run
3-3, though I'd say the only lopsided public road dogs both ML and spread-wise were the Giants and Bills and both lost. The other four were relatively close (in the 60/40 range).
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