[Justin7]

If you want more, I'll book your Gingrich 2012 Nominee action. If we can agree upon the price, we can do it for up to a few thousand. I'll escrow to any reputable 3rd party.

I think the issue so far is: will he run?

I'm not spending a ton of time on this analysis, so I'm not going to bet enough money on it to make it worth your effort to hash out details, figure out escrow and all... but I'm fine wasting betpoints on something like this.

If you priced:
Will Gingrich win the GOP Nomination
Yes
No

Where would you price them? You're not bound by this.. I'm just picking your brain, and I might make an SBR point bet (I'll even let you keep my at-risk points if we make a wager until it resolves) if I disagree, or think it is interesting.

[TomG]

If we were to agree upon a price to book, using Pinnacle's no-vig line of -200 is fair give or take a few cents.

I agree more with Intrade that has Romney closer to 70%+.

If you want to book for betpoints, I have 942 and will give you +200 on Gingrich to win the GOP Nomination for any amount I will have earned come March 2012 when it's decided.

Edit: You can have +200 on the NO on Romney to match the markets.

[TomG]

I think Gingrich is currently resonating with Republican primary voters because 1) he is well versed in policy and is a savvy debater 2) he has the most political experience and thus seems electable (oddly his latest support is largely defected Cain voters who liked Cain because he was a political outsider so go figure) and 3) he is a very outspoken critic of Obama and the news media.

People forget his baggage, though. It's not even his personal life stuff. Just a few months ago, GOP'ers were calling him a traitor for his criticism of Paul Ryan's budget as "right win social engineering." When the focus is on him, Newt doesn't do a good job responding to criticism (the Tiffany's stuff). Right now he is the flavor of the month, but the love affair will slowly fade as his negatives become more apparent just as it did with Bachmann, Perry, and Cain.

[neverstoppers23]

What did i tell you guys. Who called it. I told you to get on Newt when his odds were 40/1 (or 20/1) i forget on intertops two weeks ago, now the mofo is leading the back.

He still is a long shot imo, but i just feel like patting myself on the back for calling this one.

There is so much bagage. And if any of the republicans nominees bring it up he is done. Hell even the media. The media is just now digging more into his past realtions with freedie and fannie, and found out he receive 2.3 million dollars.

Rommney will probably end up winning this, if he some how wins Iowa, there is no chance for ANY body else. He isn't even campaging in Iowa and he is leading in first in a lot of polls. However, Iowa is crazy. People come out of no where, last year with Huckabee, and before that Pat Robinson years ago.
A guy like Santorum, or Bacchman could come out of no where, the caccus is a crazy process.

Newt is a very smart man, one of the smartest guys the GOP has but a lot of baggage.

There is so much room right now for a guy to just jump in and steal the nomination. I still think if Chris Christi decided to join the race, he would be in first right now. This campaign this year more then any other year has so many national debates that it has turned into a national primary, instead of them spending all their time in Iowa and going to every district, so it would be just fine for him IMO.

If you ever put up VP odds. Paul Ryan, huge under-dog. Congressmen from Wisconisn, currently the smartest guy in congress imo. And he can go toe-to-toe with any democrat. A few years ago with the health care debate he was owning Obama in the health care round table thing.

Wisconsin is a swing state, it has since turned red since 2008. And bright red, both houses turned red in the recent state elections and the gov. is obviously a gop. People usually hate his policies at first, and they have low approval ratings but as the economy approves he will, it happend, in Gary Johnsons case, and many tohers.

Esp. if Mitt Rommney joins, he wants to get a true conservative, with NO BAGGAGE. Who won't ruin his ticket by saying stupid things, Ryan is a great choice. Rommey from the east, Ryan from the South.
He may want to go with Rubbio, however he has only been in the senate for 1 term, and a few years ago they were ragging on obama, for not having any experience.

Anyways, yeah i am rambling on.
I love politics, but I hate it at the same time. I can't stand either side, because both sides think their ideas are perfect which they are not. Both sides have ignorant people the Tea Party and now this Occupy Movement.
They are more alike then they want to admit.

[neverstoppers23]

[QUOTE=TomG;12385365]I think Gingrich is currently resonating with Republican primary voters because 1) he is well versed in policy and is a savvy debater 2) he has the most political experience and thus seems electable (oddly his latest support is largely defected Cain voters who liked Cain because he was a political outsider so go figure) and 3) he is a very outspoken critic of Obama and the news media.

/QUOTE]
He may fade away, who knows. But he was gaining strength even before the whole Cain thing. I was seeing it, little by little Newt was growing. And I could hear some rumblings, and each time he was winning the Debate. Every debate, he was either 1 or 1b(or 2).

A huge reason why he is number 1 now, is the huge debate schedule. There has never been this many national debates. It is a bit crazy that they agreed to so many.
But since it has turned to a more of a national primary instead of a one-on-one bbq picnic in iowa that is a key reason.

[neverstoppers23]

ummm, like barry's first 2 years in office?

and a system overhaul? Are you trying to get obama to run on hope and change again?

I don't think that needs to happen. There needs to representation from each district. What needs to happen is this talking at each other. That is all they do, they stay in their office and with their aides. And they just release notes, or go on t.v and talk at each other.

They need to meet together, and get shit done.

I know there is a ton of shit to get done in congress, a-lot of shit we never hear about.

But this congress more then any other one i can remember is not getting shit done. At all, the tea party is ruining it. You can't come in and say. We won't raise taxes at all, its complete bull shit. And dems can't say we don't touch the entitlements at all. its bull shit. Both know eventually things need to change, they know in the future the entilement system in America is going to fail, but the thing is they don't care. They want to win next election and get money from their Union, or from their company or who-ever is funding their campaign.

The way to solve it, is term limits for congress.Maybe two 5 year terms for congress.
1 10 year term for a senator(maybe with up or down votes at the 5 year market, to see if a recall is needed in a certain district)

[Chuck Sims]

If Romney wins the Repub nomination, it proves how stupid the GOP voters are.

In his book, Romney said Romney Care should be the model for the nation. Recent editions have scrubbed that passage from his book

Romney said he has been a strong supporter of abortion since 1970. He will fight for a womans right to have abortion. Surprise! Romney is suddenly pro choice now.

Romney is for strict gun laws. Does not believe people should be able to carry a handgun. Surprise! Romney is singing a different tune now.

Romney believes in amnesty for the 20,000,000 illegals. Surprise! Romney has flipped.

Romney believes in the man made global warming hoax and wants to tax the American people in way of Gore's carbon tax scheme. Surprise! Romney is backing away from that stance.

Romney thinks bailing out Wall Street was the right thing to do.

[wrongturn]

Agree with Chuck. Romney, as smart and articulate as he is, will face a lot of tough questions down the road. For one, he was the governor of very liberal state, he got to have pushed many liberal agendas like Chuck listed. For two, his faith will be a big issue in south, even nobody wants to comment openly.

[lightweight]

Neverstoppers, it takes 1144 delegates to win the nomination. Iowa has 28 delegates, and along with every other contest prior to April 1, is awarding those delegates proportionally. If Romney gets >50% in Iowa, it might signify the coming end. However, if he takes a plurality of 28%, do you honestly believe the media will let go of 4 month horse race? Even after Obama had crossed the delegate threshold, the media would not stop brainstorming conspiracy theories about how Clinton could make a comeback.

Justin, the downside to Gingrich in the General is that the Clintons, whatever their feelings towards Obama, will not be able to sleep at night if Gingrich becomes President. Bill and Hillary will campaign like mad, and I think after the media remind everyone that Gingrich was having an affair while leading the impeachment movement, people may grow weary that he has a hidden agenda and is a culture warrior. That might be worth a 5 to 7% swing from Gingrich to Obama.

[Boscoe]

gingrich is just part of the pattern of all other non-romney's making a run before fading back into the pack. first bachmann, then perry, then cain and now gingrich. romney will win.