Originally Posted by
og4667
Been doing a lot of thinking about this...
Stats/trends are not it. Everyone has the same stats, books have the stats and typically most stastical edges you see are already factored into the line.
For me, its the intangibles...granted you need some knowledge of the sport/teams to be able to evaluate intangibles but the best way I can put it is this...
Find the best/most capable team that is being doubted or disrespected by either the line and/or the betting public.
Pretty simple concept and plays with this idea or not common but when you do find them you can hit them hard.
Per these train of thought...here are the plays I came up with.
Friday: Nothing...Kent St is somewhat being disrespected by the betting public but neither of these teams are very capable in my opinion and the definition of a coinflip, I lean Kent St.... Looking at USC @ Colorado...CU is being disrespected by vegas and betting public but they stink so no play.
Saturday: 2 solid plays in my opinion. Iowa +4. Line in my opinion should Iowa -1 or pk, so we get a very capable motivated home team that is being doubted by both the books and betting public. Second pick is Bama -5...I set this line at Bama -6 so line is pretty accurate but #1 team is being doubted by the public who loves LSU getting points.
Sunday: Chargers +5 or 6. Line per my estimates is right on but we are getting a charger team coming off a loss on MNF in a game that was basically in the bag up until the last minute. Packers getting lots of love from betting public and Chargers being disrespected as a home dog. Chargers + whatever
Anyway just some thoughts but like to hear your guys thoughts on his fairly simple idea. Good luck.