[nikossf]

Id like to read the rest of this article..if someone can copy and paste here would be much appreciated...

Thanks everyone..


http://insider.espn.go.com/insider/b...betting-trends

[ZetaPsi808]

sure pal.

Every Tuesday during the NFL regular season, Dave Tuley of ViewfromVegas.com will provide an update on the Hilton SuperContest.



LAS VEGAS -- You've likely heard by now how the sports books here took a beating over the weekend.
The public loves to bet the favorite and the over, and they had a banner weekend as college football favorites went 32-20 against the spread -- including all the popular top-ranked teams covering. Then NFL chalk went 8-5 ATS, with the over going 9-4, including all the major decisions going against the books and made worse when the public parlayed those winning favorites together.
SuperContest At A Glance

What: The most prestigious football handicapping contest in Las Vegas.
Where: Las Vegas Hilton.
Who: 517 entrants who put up $1,500 apiece.
When: Contest lasts the entire 17-week NFL schedule with players putting in five plays against the spread each week.
Why: $310,200 first-place prize, plus the fame and respect that comes with it.


Now, the Hilton SuperContest is a different animal. Players come with more of a tendency to look at underdogs and they're usually following the sharp money, which is often fading the public. So, while the squares were cashing tons of tickets this weekend, the SuperContest field was muddling around .500. In fact, the consensus plays went 6-6-1 overall and were remarkably close to .500 with all selections at 1,185-1,186, with 209 pushing on the Jets-Patriots game. Sharp contest players (and bettors in the real world) took the Jets plus-9 while those that followed the steam and took the Jets plus-8.5 or lower took a loss when the Patriots prevailed 30-21. There was some plus-9.5 available earlier in the week, so those bettors got a win, but for the 158 who took the Jets in the SuperContest, they picked up a half-point when they otherwise would have been stuck with a loss.
The Jets were the third-most selected team by SuperContestants in Week 5, but that only helped the top five consensus plays go 1-3-1 ATS. The Bengals' plus-2.5 came through for 162 players, but big losers included the Eagles minus-2.5 (taken by 174 SuperContestants), Falcons plus-6 (157) and Titans plus-3.5 (148). For the season, the weekly top five consensus plays are just 11-11-3.
But the leaders have been able to avoid those landmines. Sans Souci entered the week at 16-3-1 and holding a 1.5-point lead. After Sunday's day games, he was 1-1-1 with a win on the Vikings minus-2.5 versus the Cardinals (which was actually the highest-percentage play as 145 SuperContestants were on the Vikes and a mere 16 on the Cards), a loss on the Buccaneers plus-3 versus the 49ers and the push with the Jets. It was looking like he might lose the lead, but our leader prevailed in both the Sunday and Monday night games to improve to 19-4-2 (20 contest points) and maintain a 1.5-point lead on Samswins.com2, who has a record of 18-6-1 for 18.5 SuperContest points. Azzurri.99 is also at 18.5 points after going 5-0 with the Raiders, Panthers, Steelers, 49ers and Lions. Four are tied for fourth place with 18 points: Samswins.com (yes, he has two entries on the leaderboard), Pagermager, Iced Tea and Gameanalysts.com.

Where the money is going in Week 6?

Even though the official contest lines don't come out until Wednesday, the Hilton posts its openers around 4:30 p.m. Sunday, so we can usually see what the wiseguys have been betting early and project what the popular trends will be for the coming weekend. SuperContestants might have a harder time finding five plays they like this week, with six teams on byes and only 13 games on the schedule after the 16 we've enjoyed each week so far.

• One of the marquee games this week will be the 4-1 San Francisco 49ers at the 5-0 Detroit Lions, but the thing you won't hear much in the mainstream media is that both teams are 4-0-1 against the spread (tied with the Panthers for the league's best ATS record). The Lions have become one of the most popular bets. Sharps rode them last year to a league-best 12-4 ATS mark and the public jumped on the bandwagon late last year as they covered the final five games (note: they also went 4-0 ATS this preseason, so they're 9-0-1 in their last 10 regular-season games and 13-0-1 overall). As of Tuesday morning, the Lions were minus-5.5 in this matchup. However, it's interesting to note that the 49ers are getting plenty of support, too. In the advance line that the Hilton put up last Tuesday, they had the Lions minus-7, but after the 49ers routed the Buccaneers 48-3 on Sunday, the Hilton adjusted the number to Lions minus-5 that afternoon. Following the Lions' win over the Bears on Monday night, the Hilton has the Lions back up to minus-5.5.
• Another adjustment from the advance lines concerns the Cincinnati Bengals, who were minus-3 (with added juice of minus-120 instead of the standard minus-110) versus the Colts last Tuesday, but now we're seeing them as a solid 7-point favorite. The Bengals were the biggest bet-against team in over/under season win totals over the summer (bet down from a high of 7.5 wins at the MGM books to 5.5), but they've already won three games while the Colts are winless. Bettors are all over the Bengals now. Last week, they were plus-2.5 versus the Jaguars in the Hilton contest line and were bet all the way to a 2.5-point favorite by kickoff.
• The Baltimore Ravens are coming off their bye week and getting support at the windows. The advance line for the game this Sunday was minus-5.5 versus the Texans. After Houston lost to the Oakland Raiders on Sunday, the line was adjusted to Ravens minus-6.5, but it has been bet up to a full touchdown at minus-7 with indications from offshore books that it's likely to cross the key number to 7.5.
• The Panthers-Falcons game has seen adjustments from the advance line and from wagering early this week. The Falcons were minus-6.5 a week ago at the Hilton and saw a minor adjustment to minus-6 after the Panthers' cover against the Saints on Sunday afternoon. After the Falcons lost to the Packers on Sunday night, it was nudged down to minus-5.5. However, as of Tuesday morning it has been bet down to Falcons minus-4 at the Hilton, as bettors continue to back the Cam Newton-led Panthers and fade the Falcons.
• The only other lines that have moved more than a half-point are the Saints from minus-5 down to minus-4 versus the Buccaneers (mostly a play against the Saints as they won but failed to cover on the road and now hit the road again for another divisional battle), and the Jets from minus-7 to minus-8 versus the Dolphins on Monday night, mostly a play against a Miami franchise in disarray.

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Former champs/familiar names keep rallying

That rustling you hear in the background is our group of former champs and familiar names creeping up the leaderboard. Bruno's Boys, the 2001 SuperContest champ, posted their third straight 4-1 week to improve to 15-9-1 overall and over the 60-percent mark that usually is needed to finish in the money. Defending champion Richard Stand also went 4-1 and is back over .500 at 12-11-2 for 13 contest points, which is also where 2006 champ Jarhead stands. Bill Simmons of grantland.com, playing under the alias Simbotics, has 14 contest points after going 3-1-1, while ESPN the Magazine editor-in-chief Chad Millman, playing under the self-deprecating name Dead Money Millman, has 12 contest points after going 3-2 in a week that saw him start 3-0 with the Raiders, Panthers and Bengals in early Sunday games, but then lose with the Bucs and Falcons later in the day to keep from really making a move.

[nikossf]

Zeta,..my man!! Thanks buddy....

[ZetaPsi808]