[skrtelfan]

Durito, do you get it? Why would you put in 6k in bets on challengers at $50 a pop with an expected hold of 6% (in 5 minutes), versus 6 1k bets at SIA with a hold of 6%? Your mental facilities have seemed crippled as of late, so I'll hold your hand for a bit. The former is better than the latter due to lower variance. But more importantly, it's another 6k of volume. And lastly, what are the implications of being able to bet a gazillion challengers at +EV so quickly? It means you can crush them with pure stats, not knowing jack shit about injuries, motivation or anything else (unless you can quantify it).

The point of this thread... there is a lot of easy money out there for anyone willing to put in a little effort.

Well you had a pretty lengthy passage in your book, a full page or two, making fun of low rollers who bet $500 props, whereas a real sharp wouldn't waste his time with such small amounts of EV. So it's a bit strange to see you talking about bets with a $50 limit.

[illfuuptn]

Naive comments like this are why so many people come after you. Thanks to you and other "authors" the lowest hanging fruit is all but gone, and books are closing, lowering limits, limiting faster, and wising up in general every single day.

But hey, at least the $50 tennis market is still off the chain!

You people are soooooooooooooo stupid if you think Justin7 has ruined the betting market. There's 2 main reasons why:
1.) There are tons of syndicates out there who work with computer programmers and sport-specific experts to build models that crush games. If you think this obscure book with yards-per-play-based model examples has brought the market to efficiency then you are just a dumb person.
2.) Justin7 is not very good. He IS good, and he's good enough to win at a few major sports. His basic contribution is that he has brought sports modeling to light on SBR. He's basically a guy that knew a programming language, liked to bet sports, was pretty smart, and put it all together. And he looked like a genius. If you are a smart person and you learn how to program, you should be better than this guy.

[TomG]

Because for every opportunity that disappears, another one appears that is better. If you'd spend more time thinking, and less time crying about douches and smarts, you might confirm this for yourself faster.

You said this in your book as well. It doesn't make sense. It is not a causal relationship. If 5Dimes decides to stop offering Challenger Tennis lines (or increases the vig to something ridiculous), that does not create another opportunity. Or take NFL Teasers. 6 point 2 team teasers at +100 used to be somewhat common. Books moving to price these at -110 did not create an opportunity in 3 teamers at +180. That is a lesser option that always existed (which not coincidentally are becoming less common as well). Or buying the 3.0 in NFL for 10c. Or...

Unfortunately, for every opportunity that disappears, one must search for another, new opportunity. And it probably won't be a better opportunity.

[pavyracer]

The moral of this thread is if you win at a sportbook they will cut your limits, redflag you and eventually boot you. This is why the offshore business is headed for failure sooner than later.

[ForgetWallStreet]

You people are soooooooooooooo stupid if you think Justin7 has ruined the betting market. There's 2 main reasons why:
1.) There are tons of syndicates out there who work with computer programmers and sport-specific experts to build models that crush games. If you think this obscure book with yards-per-play-based model examples has brought the market to efficiency then you are just a dumb person.
2.) Justin7 is not very good. He IS good, and he's good enough to win at a few major sports. His basic contribution is that he has brought sports modeling to light on SBR. He's basically a guy that knew a programming language, liked to bet sports, was pretty smart, and put it all together. And he looked like a genius. If you are a smart person and you learn how to program, you should be better than this guy.

I wasn't talking about NFL spreads when I said "low hanging fruit". Thanks for enlightening me though.

[BigDaddy]

justin thanks for sharing

[MonkeyF0cker]

Because for every opportunity that disappears, another one appears that is better.

LOL.

That's some of the dumbest shit I've ever read.

[jjgold]

Again if all your tennis bets are not at pinnacle and betfair your a major square or a very small player

[faststeady]

Again if all your tennis bets are not at pinnacle and betfair your a major square or a very small player

this is way off the mark

[biggie12]

Here's an oldie but a goodie that will give you a bit more insight sir.

Camoflauge and sportsbooks

Bigboy i've been around as long as you, I remember this thread actually and it doesn't explain anything.

[Justin7]

What if you could keep making the 2 bits but considered telling everyone and their mother how to do it instead so that you made 0 bits from now on? What would your choice be then?

Maybe 2 bits is irrelevant. I think the approach I use for challengers will work in any tennis market.

[robzilla]

The moral of this thread is if you win at a sportbook they will cut your limits, redflag you and eventually boot you. This is why the offshore business is headed for failure sooner than later.

The greatest Pavy post ever.

[mr.ed]

[iceminers26]

The moral of this thread is if you win at a sportbook they will cut your limits, redflag you and eventually boot you. This is why the offshore business is headed for failure sooner than later.

So if you were a book manager you would just let every winner continue to play and win at will unitl what exactly Mr Paver, you're fkn broke?

[mr.ed]

Again if all your tennis bets are not at pinnacle and betfair your a major square or a very small player

Not true.

Unless you call 1-2 dimes a match "very small". Had more down on US Open Finals.

You can still do very well in tennis without using Pinny, Matchbook, Betfair..etc. Granted, I could do better with them, but my return on tennis is very good considering the very minimal time investment. It's obvious Justin7 has a similar method...I'm guessing he's making system plays with very little time invested. I'll also guess that he has no idea on who these players are, and doesn't even care......yet he'll still make decent coin.

[mathdotcom]

Because for every opportunity that disappears, another one appears that is better.

In J7's defense, I think he is speaking very philosophically here. Obviously there is no causal relationship. There is no reason a book that wises up on bet type A has to simultaneously introduce a bet type B that is at least as +EV as bet type A. He's making a claim about a general trend in the sports betting industry. There are new types of bets popping up all the time, from new props to live betting options, etc., just as old opportunities like certain props and favorable teaser prices are drying up. You can probably argue both sides of which side is growing at a faster rate.

On a side note, if you haven't been booted from SIA/5Dimes you are doing something wrong. Period. You can't fukkin camouflage winnings.

[Justin7]

On a side note, if you haven't been booted from SIA/5Dimes you are doing something wrong. Period. You can't fukkin camouflage winnings.

At least at SIA, different types of winnings are treated differently. You'll get tossed eventually. The question is how much can you earn before they toss you.

[durito]

At least at SIA, different types of winnings are treated differently. You'll get tossed eventually. The question is how much can you earn before they toss you.

So how many accounts have you had there?

[Justin7]

So how many accounts have you had there?

One, by any measure. I never blew out the smaller books when I was focusing on major sports. Awhile ago I had a "change of doctrine". Instead of hoping to beat NFL, NBA (or even MLB other than early openers), I shifted my focus to volume on small to mid-sized markets, as well as weaker numbers. SIA obviously offered, and still offers value in the latter.

[TheMoneyShot]

Wish I knew something about Tennis... I have no clue.

[barza01]

Justin can you please PM me an example of a match ticket you put your wager on so I know what exactly to do with these 3 sports books? Or you can post one of your plays on here if you wish.

Thanks

[BET THE HOOK]

For 5Dimes to cut you off you really have to be smashing them.