1. #1
    terpkeg
    terpkeg's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-26-09
    Posts: 2,353
    Betpoints: 2410

    Yoshida -125 v. Baroni

    I can't give Baroni more than a 33% chance here. Hard for me to see him winning a decision. He will be a long way from home and cardio has never been a strong suit. Yoshida should be able to control this one and maybe get the sub as long as he doesnt get his block knocked off in the first 3 minutes.

    This was pretty much an impulse play as soon as I saw the line. So, if anyone wants to enlighten me as to why Baroni is the play or the line is accurate, it will be appreciated.

  2. #2
    Kaladarus
    Kaladarus's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-11-09
    Posts: 1,876

    Baroni can win, but I think your 33% chance is fairly close to what it actually is. Definitely a good play on Yoshida at -125. Yoshida has a lot more ways to win this fight.

  3. #3
    Jordan23
    Jordan23's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-26-10
    Posts: 1,227
    Betpoints: 283

    You really have to like Yoshida here

  4. #4
    bjpenn85
    bjpenn85's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-17-11
    Posts: 5,059
    Betpoints: 16650

    i dont have any strong opinions on this fight. Evaluating whos the best fighter is quite difficult. I think baroni has the advantage 1.round. At the same time, he may be stronger than yoshida as well as having a decent amount of power. I dont think baroni has 33% chance, i think this fight is very close to 50 50. Both guys do categorically loose every time they meet the slightest resistance in the cage. I simply cant bet on either guy.

  5. #5
    sirchadwick1
    Update your status
    sirchadwick1's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 06-02-10
    Posts: 1,375
    Betpoints: 487

    I'm not big on Yoshida, but I fade Baroni at almost every opportunity. At -125 it's going to be hard for me not to put a few units on Yoshida. People tend to overrate Baroni's KO ability and the level of competition has more than passed him by.

  6. #6
    rocky mattioli
    rocky mattioli's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-26-10
    Posts: 1,263
    Betpoints: 5100

    where`d you pick up the line,t.k.?........i like it as well...

  7. #7
    terpkeg
    terpkeg's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-26-09
    Posts: 2,353
    Betpoints: 2410

    Quote Originally Posted by rocky mattioli View Post
    where`d you pick up the line,t.k.?........i like it as well...
    Bookmaker, now at -140.

  8. #8
    sirchadwick1
    Update your status
    sirchadwick1's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 06-02-10
    Posts: 1,375
    Betpoints: 487

    I also like a play on Yoshida straight up hedged with Baroni in the 1st rd. Seems like that's always his best shot to win.... his power fades fast after that, along with his motivation.

  9. #9
    Vaughany
    Jibbbeh is my idol.
    Vaughany's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-07-10
    Posts: 45,563
    Betpoints: 8647

    Baroni did drop BRad Tavares in the first round of their fight, if he lands that on Yoshida I doubt he'll recover like BRad did.
    And you wont get Baroni in Rnd 1 prop anywhere

  10. #10
    sirchadwick1
    Update your status
    sirchadwick1's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 06-02-10
    Posts: 1,375
    Betpoints: 487

    Quote Originally Posted by Vaughany View Post
    And you wont get Baroni in Rnd 1 prop anywhere
    Well, so much for that idea.

    I don't even have the lines yet at my books.

  11. #11
    Educ8d Degener8
    Educ8d Degener8's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-12-10
    Posts: 3,177
    Betpoints: 9916

    Quote Originally Posted by sirchadwick1 View Post
    Well, so much for that idea.

    I don't even have the lines yet at my books.
    Yeah, I was like, "what book has props for One Fighting Championship... sign me up!"...

    Gotta like Yoshida here... Baroni looked pretty bad against this guy...


  12. #12
    Vaughany
    Jibbbeh is my idol.
    Vaughany's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-07-10
    Posts: 45,563
    Betpoints: 8647

    Nolte is one tough fossil!

    He's been training Warriors though in Warrior!...

  13. #13
    MMAbetMASTA
    MMAbetMASTA's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-24-11
    Posts: 1,931

    I'm not touching this, although the line is tempting. If Baroni becomes a bigger dog, I might make a play on him.

    While its close and I won't be surprised if zenko gets a sub or gnp tko, Baroni has the better chance to win imo. Zenko is quite small at ww and baroni is big at ww. Baroni gasses, yes, but not so much that I think he can win a stand up fight with zenko. If guymon outworked zenko on the feet and on the ground, I think baroni can out work him on the feet for sure and possbiley stiffle td attempts. Combine that with solid power and LONG recent stretches overseas fine tuning his muay thai (while also gettin trashed on the beach and drinking snake blood), I can defnintely see baroni gettting a tko in any round, although I expect phil to be quite gassed by the last minute of round 2 and could be in trouble in round 3. the big question is if zenko can get him down. Considering he struggled getting guymon down and struggles with bigger guys in general, I give phil a good shot at keeping it upright where he should clobber yoshida. Yet if it gets to the ground, I tihnk phil is toast, and I also think phil's chin is not too great, so who knows what a nice punch from yoshida can do. Therefore, all in all I wouldn't play this fight unless phil becomes a heavier dog - take him if that's the case imo - otherwise don't touch it. My overall prediction though is a baroni tko, round 1.
    Last edited by MMAbetMASTA; 08-31-11 at 04:24 PM.

  14. #14
    MMAbetMASTA
    MMAbetMASTA's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-24-11
    Posts: 1,931

    Quote Originally Posted by Educ8d Degener8 View Post
    Yeah, I was like, "what book has props for One Fighting Championship... sign me up!"...

    Gotta like Yoshida here... Baroni looked pretty bad against this guy...

    lol I didn't see this fight.... But I am a firm believer in your as good as your last fight. I looked up Nolte's profile on sherdog, and yes, he's nothing special by any means, D level. If Baroni struggled to get a UD against this guy, then I might change my above prediction and lean toward yoshida. Then again yoshida's last fight, albiet a stoppage, was against an aging lightweight, someone yoshida was actually bigger than. I think size will always pose problems for yoshida, especially when it comes to striking and also the ability to control positionning.

  15. #15
    NunyaBidness
    NunyaBidness has a posse
    NunyaBidness's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-26-09
    Posts: 9,345
    Betpoints: 4507

    This line is getting a ton of action. Money pouring in on Baroni on 5d. Yoshida +125 there, Baroni +120 at bookmaker. Wonder what's going on.

  16. #16
    Vaughany
    Jibbbeh is my idol.
    Vaughany's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-07-10
    Posts: 45,563
    Betpoints: 8647

    Probably just because Yoshida is susceptible to being TKO'd/KO'd and Baroni has some power

  17. #17
    NunyaBidness
    NunyaBidness has a posse
    NunyaBidness's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-26-09
    Posts: 9,345
    Betpoints: 4507

    Quote Originally Posted by Vaughany View Post
    Probably just because Yoshida is susceptible to being TKO'd/KO'd and Baroni has some power
    Well, sure, but the line kind of sat there for a couple days without much action, gradual action towards Yoshida. Then today, money pours in on Baroni, a small buyback on Yoshida as the arbers readjust the line.

    A lot of times when lines move this way, its because someone knows something. Its back to the opener now, but I think if Bookmaker had moved with 5d, we'd still be looking at a -150ish Baroni.

  18. #18
    Vaughany
    Jibbbeh is my idol.
    Vaughany's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-07-10
    Posts: 45,563
    Betpoints: 8647

    Very true, could well be on to something here

  19. #19
    sirchadwick1
    Update your status
    sirchadwick1's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 06-02-10
    Posts: 1,375
    Betpoints: 487

    Probably b/c bettors are reading the Sherdog forums and seeing that 75% are on Baroni by KO in the 1st.
    The NYBA still has his fans that want him to win, that's for sure... but he's cutting to 170 in this one and it will drain him yet again.

    Yoshida probably wins by RNC late in the 3rd.

  20. #20
    NunyaBidness
    NunyaBidness has a posse
    NunyaBidness's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-26-09
    Posts: 9,345
    Betpoints: 4507

    Quote Originally Posted by sirchadwick1 View Post
    Probably b/c bettors are reading the Sherdog forums and seeing that 75% are on Baroni by KO in the 1st.
    The NYBA still has his fans that want him to win, that's for sure... but he's cutting to 170 in this one and it will drain him yet again.

    Yoshida probably wins by RNC late in the 3rd.
    Come on, everyone knows that shertards don't have any money to bet.

  21. #21
    Vaughany
    Jibbbeh is my idol.
    Vaughany's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-07-10
    Posts: 45,563
    Betpoints: 8647


  22. #22
    MMAbetMASTA
    MMAbetMASTA's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-24-11
    Posts: 1,931

    Quote Originally Posted by NunyaBidness View Post
    Come on, everyone knows that shertards don't have any money to bet.
    Niceeeeeeeeee......

  23. #23
    urge2kill
    urge2kill's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-27-09
    Posts: 1,722
    Betpoints: 1531

    Quote Originally Posted by NunyaBidness View Post
    Come on, everyone knows that shertards don't have any money to bet.

  24. #24
    sirchadwick1
    Update your status
    sirchadwick1's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 06-02-10
    Posts: 1,375
    Betpoints: 487

    LOL, reading the forums make you a shertard? Because I'm willing to bet most of us here do.

  25. #25
    Educ8d Degener8
    Educ8d Degener8's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-12-10
    Posts: 3,177
    Betpoints: 9916

    Quote Originally Posted by sirchadwick1 View Post
    LOL, reading the forums make you a shertard? Because I'm willing to bet most of us here do.
    Naw... we all read 'em... I do mostly for sheer entertainment as 99.999% of those clowns post some of theeeeeeee dumbest drivel I've ever read... though, we need shertards like that to place bets that skew lines to offer us value...

  26. #26
    rocky mattioli
    rocky mattioli's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-26-10
    Posts: 1,263
    Betpoints: 5100

    don`t they have radio frequency devices that keep arrogant teenagers out of the forums?....or is the foaming at the mouth,ill executed sarcasm and poor grammar mandatory?...

  27. #27
    illmatick
    Update your status
    illmatick's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-05-09
    Posts: 5,433
    Betpoints: 115

    I should have the answer to this fight soon. Gonna break down the next few cards while I slowly approach the next level.





  28. #28
    Vaughany
    Jibbbeh is my idol.
    Vaughany's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-07-10
    Posts: 45,563
    Betpoints: 8647

    haha What is tht shit Ill? Gettin on some Rogan DMT!

  29. #29
    illmatick
    Update your status
    illmatick's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-05-09
    Posts: 5,433
    Betpoints: 115

    18 milligrams of 2C-e and 5 hits of acid. Been a while since I've had this particular concoction.
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2C-E

    hehe, no DMT..Only tried that twice.

  30. #30
    Vaughany
    Jibbbeh is my idol.
    Vaughany's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-07-10
    Posts: 45,563
    Betpoints: 8647

    OFC starting now, live on sherdog

  31. #31
    Vaughany
    Jibbbeh is my idol.
    Vaughany's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-07-10
    Posts: 45,563
    Betpoints: 8647

    Oh God the Ring Girls introduction was cringe! Dont think the UFC have anything to worry about!

  32. #32
    Vaughany
    Jibbbeh is my idol.
    Vaughany's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-07-10
    Posts: 45,563
    Betpoints: 8647

    Matt Hume reffing some of these fights

  33. #33
    rocky mattioli
    rocky mattioli's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-26-10
    Posts: 1,263
    Betpoints: 5100

    susovan ghosh?.......my god.....some of the new guys on this card look like they were pulled right off the street...that was fugly....

  34. #34
    Vaughany
    Jibbbeh is my idol.
    Vaughany's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-07-10
    Posts: 45,563
    Betpoints: 8647

    haha quite a size difference as well

  35. #35
    Vaughany
    Jibbbeh is my idol.
    Vaughany's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-07-10
    Posts: 45,563
    Betpoints: 8647

    looked like andy wang was kneeled down praying there for his life!

12 Last
Top