[DIRTYDOG]

Hello my friends...

Ahhhhhhh its Saturday morning and the smell of football is in the air!! How about the first shocker of the young college season as Baylor knocked off # 14 TCU last night by the final of 50-48? Hopefully no one got snookered into betting on TCU in that game as the odds maker tried to point everyone in the right direction with regard to the posted line on that affair.

The first red flag was the fact that last year TCU blew out the Bears by a final of 45-10 as a huge -21.5 home favorite yet closed as a -3.5 road favorite over Baylor after the number actually opened at TCU -6.5. Some of the point spread difference this year versus last year was of course due to the home/away switch, however, in the big picture if all things were equal and we were to allow 4.5 points for home field advantage, then a simple home/away switch should have logically had the Horned Frogs listed as a -12.5 road favorite at Baylor instead of the opening number of -6.5....why the difference?

This is where the second red flag popped up as a little digging would have revealed that TCU was starting sophomore QB Casey Pachall in his first ever road game in lieu of departed 4 year starter (to the NFL) QB Andy Dalton, last year Pachall only tossed the rock a total of NINE times in game situations playing behind Dalton, a little more digging would have also revealed that Pachall had missed three practices and a scrimmage leading up the this game with a sore shoulder that required an MRI to make sure there wasn't serious damage. As a side note, TCU has been the perceived better team over Baylor, however, Baylor's win knots up the overall head to head record at 50-50-7.....things that make you go hmmmmmm!!

Onward to the first Saturday of college football...one of the most interesting games to me is the instate Rivalry game that has Western Michigan (+13.5) visiting the Big House in Ann Arbor when they take on the Michigan Wolverines, I don't think we can actually call this contest a pure rivalry game as these teams have only met a total of three times since 1992 and Michigan has won and covered all three including their last get together back in 2009 when in the same situation as this year (opening Saturday) the Wolves won 31-7 as a -13 point home favorite.

What makes this an interesting game to me is the dynamics involved as this will be Michigans first game with new HC Brady Hoke manning the sidelines after the ouster of Rich Rodriquez, what most forget is that Hoke was with the Wolverines from 1995 to 2002 teaching defense and was actually the Asst HC during his final season with Michigan before departing for the Ball State skipper job. Hoke got this gig with Michigan based on his prior association with Michigan along with the success he had in a one-season stint as HC last year at San Diego State (9-4) after the team had finished 4-8 in 2009.

Needless to say, the brass at Michigan has high hopes that Hoke can turn around this Wolverine program that has only won 15 games over the past three seasons as well. The transition will be interesting to watch as prior to former HC Rodriquezs time in Michigan the Wolves were basically a ground and pound team and recruited that type of player, under Rodriquez Michigan switched mindsets and recruited for a spread out aerial attack, now under Hoke the Wolves will probably switch back to a more conservative approach predicated on strong defense and ball control.

In closing the spread on this contest opened with Michigan installed as a -14.5 home favorite but has since been bet down to -13.5 at most outlets, however, there are still +14s available as I myself snagged up Western Michigan +14 at Bodog (-110) just this morning...I was hoping to get the hook at +14.5 but it never materialized so I went ahead and pulled the proverbial trigger. Interestingly enough, current betting trends reveal that 66% of all wagers have been on Michigan thus far, yet the line has dropped from its initial offering of +14.5, meaning of course that smart money is betting one way and the public is betting the other way....things that make you go hmmmmmmm!!


Take care and be well my friend

Jim

[Goodfella10]

Jim, best of luck today on your play.

[rainmaker82]

GL with your picks!

[JamesBrown]

I like it as well! Here is a nice read on Western Mich QB.... http://www.mlive.com/broncos/index.s...ex_carder.html

[DIRTYDOG]

Jim, best of luck today on your play.

Thank you my friend...Good luck to you as well!

Jim

[BigDan]

agree with the play but i already have so many i let this one go. interested to see how robinson handles running a pro style offense for sure. GL

[DIRTYDOG]

GL with your picks!

Thank you my friend and good luck to you as well!

Jim

[tmuller02]

U lose

[DIRTYDOG]

Hello my friends..

I've been keeping an eye on the Middle Tenn St game at Purdue which kicks at 12 noon est with the thought of backing MTNST should the public pound the hometown Purdue Boilermakers upward. Oddly enough the exact opposite has happened as the opening number of -17.5 is now down to -14.5. Obviously Joe Public likes the fact that MTNST has 14 returning starters and of course the fact that Purdue is breaking in a new QB...if the line moves down to a solid 14 Purdue might be the way to go as that would be wayyyyyy too much value to pass up.

Take care and be well

Jim

[DIRTYDOG]

I like it as well! Here is a nice read on Western Mich QB.... http://www.mlive.com/broncos/index.s...ex_carder.html

That is indeed a very good article, hard to refute anything the writer had to say as I totally agree..if given time look out Wolve defense.

Take care and be well my friend

Jim

[JamesBrown]

For anyone in LV...The Hilton moved this line to +15, and the Stations have it at +14.5. Great value here.

[DIRTYDOG]

Hello my friends..

In addition to my play on Western Michigan +14 over Michigan I am adding on one more play:

New Mexico +6.5 over Colorado State...the line on this contest opened with the hometown Lobos installed as -4.5 point doggies, however, Joe Public has since bet the number up to Colorado State -6.5 with an eye opening 70% of all wagers coming in on the visiting Rams.

The home team in this series is a perfect 4-0 straight up and 3-1 ATS in the last four meetings that took place on each teams homefield and overall its been the Lobos who have controlled this series of late by winning 5 of the past 8 meetings in straight up fashion and posting a mark of 4-4 ATS in those affairs. This is also a revenge game for the home team as they were beaten 38-14 last year at Colorado State as a -14.5 point road doggie.

Both teams in this contest stunk last year and will probably stink this year as well, however, getting +6.5 points plus homefield advantage is simply too hard to pass up and especially against a Colorado State team that has had its share of distractions to deal with while attempting to prepare for this road trip as it was reported earlier this week that starting middle linebacker James Skelton and backup defensive tackle Zach Tiedgen were arrested at a move-in pool party.

Take care and be well

Jim

[DIRTYDOG]

For anyone in LV...The Hilton moved this line to +15, and the Stations have it at +14.5. Great value here.

Hello JamesBrown..

The game was stopped for an hour and then finally called with 1 minute and 27 seconds left in the 3rd quarter due to lightening, however, both teams agreed to the final result with regard to Michigan getting the win. For betting purposes Vegas rules applied, meaning that for a bet to count the game itself HAS to go at least 55 minutes or the game in question is canceled for betting purposes.....soooooo the game is a NO BET.

I was actually feeling good about my wager on Western Michigan +14 as they were only down 20-10 at the half, oh well, at least I am glad that New Mexico + 6.5 over Colorado State brought home the bacon for me which made it a good day in the end.

Take care and be well my friend

Jim