1. #1
    BetterBizness
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    Can you arb out or parlays/etc on the same site?

    I would imagine on Rec sites, they will get pissed off if you are arb'ing out of a last game on a parlay or something, but what about bigger Greek/Pinny "pro" handles, where you are arb'ing out of bets using live action and every tool available, when you have, say a $1000 parlay about to close out, but that team is up a run in the 9th, and you take $200 on the over at 3:1 ...

    I've had it happen a couple of times in teh past year, but wasn't sure if they would get all pissy...

  2. #2
    BetterBizness
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    ???

  3. #3
    wantitall4moi
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    yes

  4. #4
    Glitch
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    you would rarely get the opportunity to be both sides efficiently on the same site but you are allowed to take both sides usually if its not a freeplay.

  5. #5
    BetterBizness
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    Right but say I have a $50 4 Teamer worth whatever.. $500... and it includes a late game, and I hedge off it in at 5 minutes before game time for whatever.. 50% ... Won't "book x" get pissed that I am literally making $200...

  6. #6
    Glitch
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    you can most definitely do that. on any respectable book. people do it all the time when it comes down to the last game or the last 2 games etc.

  7. #7
    BetterBizness
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    what about a site with live lines, that give you a price on a line in the 2nd inning, say your team is down 2-0 but then the team you bet on does good things in the 3rd inning scoring 5 runs, and now you are getting a price on the other team... Can you by yourself back some on team b, or will they again, get angry that you are ensuring yourself profit?

  8. #8
    rm18
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    only thing they might get mad is when they have the overlapping lines at the same time. Ive seen arbs in regular vs reduced on 5 dimes. Live vs. regular on WSEX. 2nd half vs. live on bookmaker etc.

  9. #9
    Glitch
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    i dont think it would not be against the rules in most books (unless youre doing it like rm said maybe ["simultaneously" so to speak.]), but if they see you doing that effectively and repeatedly then they might make some adjustments to your account. most of these books hate strategy and some will categorize you as non-recreational.

  10. #10
    trytrytry
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    books love it anytime you make a negative expectation wager..like buying out at some -110 on some play.


    unless its above their limits.

  11. #11
    BetterBizness
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    SOmeone told me a long time ago that's why you have seperate books... But then I thought, some have live betting, as a prime example, some dont... so it's not always an option to be buying prices on various sites... I guess they're not as worried about people who bet in the hundreds... I wonder if they care if people are betting in the thousands...

  12. #12
    rm18
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    got off to a good start on this one they wont care if I bet the other side of college games even if it is for a thousand or more on the last game, but I wouldn't do that unless I got buried and needed to have some money real bad.

    [Ticket #: 101653975] PARLAY (6 TEAMS) (FP)
    09/03/2011 @ 09:00 AM CFB [148] BOSTON COLLEGE -2½-120 (B+½)
    09/03/2011 @ 09:00 AM CFB [149] UTAH STATE +21½-110
    09/03/2011 @ 05:00 PM CFB [183] TULSA +21½-120 (B+½)
    08/25/2011 @ 07:20 PM MLB [909] HOU ASTROS +190
    ( ACTION )
    08/25/2011 @ 04:10 PM MLB [917] KC ROYALS +155
    ( ACTION )
    08/25/2011 @ 05:10 PM MLB [919] BOS RED SOX +155
    ( ACTION )
    0.00 3000.02

  13. #13
    BetterBizness
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    through it all, I guess the answer is really.. big sites, like 5d, pinny, and greek won't care as much.. small sites if you do it often, may limit you...

  14. #14
    Bluehorseshoe
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    Quote Originally Posted by BetterBizness View Post
    through it all, I guess the answer is really.. big sites, like 5d, pinny, and greek won't care as much.. small sites if you do it often, may limit you...
    No site is going to care. You're doing them a favor by hedging.

  15. #15
    Arilou
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    I always find it amusing Greek is on the list of 'won't limit you' books. They are known to limit people (such as me) for ordinary steam chasing.

    Bluehorseshoe is right in the sense that they mostly shouldn't care, but wrong in the sense that in rare cases they have no choice and even when they shouldn't care sometimes they do anyway. If you hedge in a harmless way, such as betting the series and then the individual games later in the series, they just smile and figure they got you coming and going. However, as noted earlier, if you do it in a way that makes it obvious you're taking the best of it, they're not happy. That could be overlapping lines, that could be finding and exploiting a weakness (CRIS once got very angry at me for pointing out that they consistently put lines up at a time when they really, really shouldn't have and didn't respond that quickly, and got even more pissed that I often hedged out after, which I did because they were bad at the math involved and often overmoved).

    If you find a genuine hole in the system and start pumping money out of it, any book - even the best - will be forced to respond in some way and stop you.

  16. #16
    wantitall4moi
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    I took A LOT of money from Pinnacle over the years by buying back on them them in house...A LOT, and that isnt a relative term either. A lot by any definition.

    They didnt bat an eye. Now one could say they thought I was hurting myself by buying back off a 'strong' number. Really? So getting free money isnt better than hoping the other fools who moved that lined 30 cents or more were also right?

    But when the serious debate about scalping and hedging came up a few years ago I went through all my results on leads where I took a team that moved 10 cents or more. The results of those were insignificant. meaning had I kept the original and not bought back I would have made just about the same amount. So I looked at stuff that moved 20 cents or more. One would think a move like that would mean those teams won more, at least if you adhere to the knowledge that bettors are smarter than books. Nope, it was actually worse. So by eliminating that subset (20-29 point) moves, it made the 10-19 and 30+ move profitable, but only slightly. So I looked at the 30+ moves, there werent very many, and they were only slightly profitable, just about what the aforementioned results were. So if you think getting a number that is grossly better than a closer in a baseball game is a surefire road to success, it isnt.

    Some guys would say this 'proves' the efficiency of the 'market' because you cant find an advantage in it. Because even with big moves they all even out over the long term. I wouldnt go that far, but I will say I take free money whenever I can get it. I might not always buy back to a full arbitrage but to a number that balances out.

    Scalping, arbitraging, hedging, whatever is an advantage, the only one if you ask me. But not enough people do it or care to do it to make it anything beyond an annoyance to books. But it also helps them balance out things somewhat, and usually when lines do move that much they do need a balance. So if you take 8000 of risk of them for 350 bucks, they probably think that is a good trade off. Even if you have 12000 of the risk theyre trying to balance. Books dont like to give away free money, but it is the nature of the beast sometimes. But they also dont like gambling, and in some cases they move a line on purpose to get some guys to buy back. And to the having the same guy bet with them reduces their risk a lot more than if he took their line first and layed off the other side with someone else.

    Again some guys will think the 'smart ones", and Pinny always comes to mind dont care. yes they do, because they have had the best line on BOTH sides of the game well over 60% of the time. So by that alone they show they want action when there is action to be had, and if that means giving away free money to a few guys that bet early, then so be it. If Pinnacle really thought they were smarter than everyone they would paint a line and hold it no matter what, and then take all the action from anyone laying off from other books. They would have games with a 90-10 split in action, but they dont. Pinnacle can do what they do because of volume. With high volume comes less risk. And they can play around a little more than some book handling 50 dollar bets. And Pinnacle isnt even the biggest, it is just the biggest that most US guys heard about or played at. There are a few Asian places that would buy and sell Pinnacle, and they do the same things Pinnacle does, they just dont mess around with Americans and all the demands they have.
    Last edited by wantitall4moi; 08-26-11 at 08:50 AM.

  17. #17
    Jontheman
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    Don't know how you ran your filter but moves by points rather than percentages sets off alarm bells in my head. a 30 point filter is going to catch a lot of games that moved from +440 to +410, and not many that moved from -115 to +115. The 30 points you got may not be that valuable, and that's a seriously skewed data set...

    Apologies if by "points" you meant percentage points.

  18. #18
    wantitall4moi
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jontheman View Post
    Don't know how you ran your filter but moves by points rather than percentages sets off alarm bells in my head. a 30 point filter is going to catch a lot of games that moved from +440 to +410, and not many that moved from -115 to +115. The 30 points you got may not be that valuable, and that's a seriously skewed data set...

    Apologies if by "points" you meant percentage points.

    30 cents in baseball sides, where for example a team opened -180, dog got pet heavy and fav got to -150 or so. Then more than likely fav got bet again as people bought back. But a 30 point extreme. There are a few games where lines moved, more but those were due to pitching changes and thus I dont count them.

    30 cent ML moves in spread based sports are very common. Hell a 10 point hoops fave can be -1250 or so, and if the dog gets hammered and the line goes to -7, then theyre going to be around -400 or so. So spread based MLs are a whole different animal.

  19. #19
    mr.inpak
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    yes you can because it is a seperate bet

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