[Creditsforedits]

Just a few weeks to go until NZ 2011, anyone see past New Zealand or Australia? Teams announced on Monday and last pre-tournament games to be played shortly...

The wallabies have some value at 4/1 I think, they showed up the SA pack recently and its really their attacking play they are known for. Burgess, Cooper, Giteau and their wingers make them extremely potent. They should win their group setting up a QF with Wales (or perhaps Samoa or Fiji), so I see them in the Semis as a definite and then its anyone's from there.

The All Blacks are at 8/15 with William Hill, too much? Tough to call with the question marks given their failings in recent World Cups. I like Weepu at nine and with Sonny Bill Williams in the centre and at home they probably deserve the price, but given the way things have happened in the past I would not be surprised to see them heartbroken in a final with France.

Speaking of Les Bleus, I am surprised to see them at 16/1 and England at 12/1, given pool A and pool B teams meet in the quarters England will be meeting either France or NZ and going home. England have been so inconsistent and they don't have the on team leaders of 4 years ago. They will play to a plan and the plan of the coachs (Ford, Wells etc) will not be good enough.

So France, Aus or NZ to win it, wait to see the teams and final games but looking forward to this tournament hugely..

Sonny Bill Williams - beast!!

[RLF]

Unfortunately there's no one worth backing to win the Cup. The ABs will win it but they're too short.

[ACoochy]

Kiwis to do their usual choke job (esp in front of home crowd)...Aus looks like the play here...

[Meyhem]

when do the kiwis loose in front of home crowds?


if they loose the tri nations it should bump there price back up to 1.75 - 1.80 mark

[ACoochy]

when do the kiwis loose in front of home crowds? if they loose the tri nations it should bump there price back up to 1.75 - 1.80 mark

How many times have kiwis been favs to win WC and how many WC have they actually won? Home crowd pressure and tri nations isnt comparable (in terms of pressure) to WC...

[Meyhem]

How many times have kiwis been favs to win WC and how many WC have they actually won? Home crowd pressure and tri nations isnt comparable (in terms of pressure) to WC...

NZL have 100% clean record in front of home crowds in World Cups

[ACoochy]

NZL have 100% clean record in front of home crowds in World Cups

True but its almost ingrained in the national psyche that come WC time they are more prone to choke than succeed...Maybe they may prove me wrong, but the stats say different...And how many times have they been favs to win WC again???

[RLF]

Kiwis never choked, they were beaten by better sides on the day.

[Meyhem]

Just stating that they don't choke in front of home crowds

[Ace_of_Spades]

Hand it to the Kiwis.

[ACoochy]

Kiwis never choked, they were beaten by better sides on the day.

I respectfully disagree...

[Sunde91]

Universal Sports will broadcast in the US. So NBC networks and USA, like the Olympics.

5Dimes / Pinnacle

All Blacks -190 / -170
Aussies +450 / +465
RSA +900 / +825
England +1400 / +1350
France +2300 / +2000
Ireland +3500 / +3337
Wales +11000 / +7538
Argentina +22500 / +12638
Scotts +33000 / +15834

5D kills pinn on the longshots, but limits only range from $5 to $250

Chalk is absurd, but All Blacks will win this. And they did choke in 07



France has value at +2300. No Chabal is unreal http://frenchrugbyclub.com/Internati...ad-001448.html

[Creditsforedits]

All Blacks do have a mental issue at the WC, but they have also had more down to earth reasons for failings in the past. Their management got their build up wrong and they were on a decline of form heading into the WC and others were on the up and they got beaten by better teams, they have also been on the end of some bad referee decisions, most notably the error for the French try in the Quarters last time. So it is not a question of just choking in the bright lights. Remember also the top teams are all that - top teams and the All Blacks have no right to the title and that has been proved time and time again... it almost reminds me of Liverpool fans who have dreamed they are gonna win it all the past 10 years... but the All Blacks are a lot lot better than Liverpool in their respective sport.

This is more open than the books think. O'Driscoll summed it up well when he said that whilst not ideal it would not matter for Ireland to lose all their build up games (not that Ireland win the RWC) but he has a point. It is down to the day and any of the top teams can win on the day.

Set pieces and forward play will count, England have a pack as good, if not better than anyone in the world.. ok they cant attack for sh*t in the 3/4's but they can play 10 man rugby and win the whole thing behind Wilko's boot.. boring and rough, they way they have been since Woodward left.

Australia also have a pack that can mix it and they have backs as good as anyone in the world and France has a squad that rivals the All Blacks easily on paper, they just happen to be France and they are the ones who really do choke.

But England come in on the back of a six nations win, Australia have the Super 15 champions, the Red and players full of confidence like Horwill (who is now the captain as well), NZ have the Tri Nations and S.A. are the reigning champions.

We have been here every year - All Blacks win without even turning up - and every year a team and events conspire to deny them, this year that possibility is still there. They just happen to have eliminated some of the issues - playing at home, but Carter is not as good as he was, number 9 is a problem for them and up front they are matchable if not beatable. Sonny Bill Williams may just break lose and be the difference, but then Jonah Lomu was supposed to do that in South Africa years ago, didnt work then.

Australia, France or NZ all stand a chance.

[RLF]

All Blacks didn't choke, every defeat they were outplayed and tactically found wanting in every game. Injuries didn't help but it happens to every side. This one, the ABs will win - the value will be in the pool game spreads.

[Beniphone]

I agree RLF, I wasn't confident in them last WC, this cup they have what it takes for sure.

I can't wait to treat the nz - France pool match spread like a cheap whore. This one will be personal

[Creditsforedits]

agree with both RLF and Beniphone.... but I am just saying that it is well within the realms of possibility for NZ to thrash France in the Pool and then France to beat them (by whatever means) in the final....

[Creditsforedits]

England Squad looks totally predicable, heavy and unskilled... unskilled just like their coaches. Banahan is so fuqqin useless that it is just such a shame on so many levels that he gets the nod ahead of many more skilled and exciting wingers / centres whatever he claims to be (lock)..

Good to see Simpson in there but I suspect he will only feature in the small pool games.. do like Armitage, Ashton, Foden and Tuilagi but just can't see them getting the ball needed to make things work creatively at the back.

Up front its pretty impressive as England always are, great to see Croft in there.

[Creditsforedits]

All squads out now, All Blacks have left out Gear and Svivatu and go with Guildford, Jane and Toeava.. Guildford should have an excellent tournament. The rest is as expected and the main man Sonny William Williams is gonna light up this tournament, be interesting to see how defenses line up to cover him. PaddyPower has NZ at 4/7 outright now.

Odds on France have shortened and they are now favored above England (as they should be) - France 14/1 and England 18/1 after squad announcements - Marconnet and Domingo do not travel, but France have an embarrassment of riches up front (Dusautoir, Harinorodquy and Bonnaire - all great in the loose as well as set pieces). Backs are exceptional, but can they handle the power of NZ centres? Medard is one of the greatest players of this age and I think the French have a great chance and I like the small play at 16/1 prior to the squad announcement.

[reedy]

Lots of value in Aus. Lots.

[RLF]

Lots of value in Aus. Lots.

I'm Australian and I can tell you there's not. There's no value in anything. NZ will win hands down but they're too short.

[ACoochy]

I'm Australian and I can tell you there's not. There's no value in anything. NZ will win hands down but they're too short.

Hhhmmm so all blacks have lost last 2 tests heading into WC and just relinquished the tri-nations cup....Graeme Henry cant be too happy and not the ideal preparation heading into the WC...Can someone smell a hometown burial...

[hawley]

Hhhmmm so all blacks have lost last 2 tests heading into WC and just relinquished the tri-nations cup....Graeme Henry cant be too happy and not the ideal preparation heading into the WC...Can someone smell a hometown burial...

No.

I still cant see it happening whatsoever.

Only positive is there may be a slight readjustment of the tournament favourites now however it wont be big enough to introduce any value into the All Blacks odds..

[Creditsforedits]

Definitely able to see a team other than NZ winning the World Cup. Didnt get to see the Auz/NZ game but the reports say the Aussies dominated them completely and that was a pretty full strength Kiwi team. It asks questions certainly, are the All Blacks still easy favourites, of course. But Henry summed it up well in his pre-match talk when he mentioned that they beat France by 40 points in France before the last world cup and then lost in the Quarters. This year is going to be good!!

[RLF]

Don't be so ignorant, that was an awesome victory by the Wallabies and I predicted it but home advantage is huge. ABs have the WC won.

[ACoochy]

Excellent Article for kiwi supporters...
http://www.smh.com.au/rugby-union/un...830-1jjfs.html

The All Blacks' urgent areas of improvement

Duncan Johnstone

August 30, 2011 - 1:36PM

• Comments 7
• Vote

Trouble with rush defence ... Mils Muliaina of the All Blacks attempts to fend off Pat McCabe of the Wallabies. Photo: Getty Images

OPINION: Consecutive losses have left the All Blacks in catch-up mode with their World Cup opener just over a week away. Here are some urgent work-ons for Graham Henry's team.
There were some alarming similarities in the defeats to the Springboks in Port Elizabeth and to the Wallabies in Brisbane.
Consistent team selection: It hasn't been the cotton wool club of four years ago but the All Blacks desire to give some key players a bit of a breather in the wake of a demanding Super Rugby season has definitely hit the performance of the team. The backup brigade were always going to be under pressure in South Africa but much more was expected of the top side when they were re-employed last weekend. Sadly they looked alarmingly off the pace at Suncorp Stadium, particularly in that first spell, with nothing gelling. The All Blacks now need to use the pool play to get some continuity back into their ranks. Yes, there will be chances against the likes of Japan to do some selective resting, but the team needs to be peaking by the time the playoffs arrive and a lot of that will be about getting some consistency in selection to produce consistent performances.
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High ball work: The back three looked a bit vulnerable under the bombs, particularly in Brisbane where Zac Guildford was exposed. It's going to be a World Cup tactic, particularly if New Zealand's wet weather hits and with the big matches starting at 9pm.
Kick and chase: The chasing game in both losses was average. If kicks are employed - and statistics tend to show that Dan Carter and the All Blacks in general put the boot in more than is perceived - then the chasing game has to come with it to maximise pressure and opportunities at the right end of the park. Get some oomph back.
Discipline: This was an issue in both losses, too. The All Blacks had an alarming habit of conceding penalties in their own half under pressure. Superboot Morne Steyn punished them to maximum effect in South Africa and there's no doubt that goalkicking will play a huge role in the tournament, particularly at the business end. Good discipline - and decision making in split-second moments - has been a hallmark of Henry's team. Now is not the time to let these standards slip.
The scrum: A few creaks have started to appear into a crucial element of the All Blacks armoury. New Zealand's scrum has been regarded as the best in the business over the last couple of years. But Tony Woodcock's long injury-absence and some question marks over the bench have suddenly seen things slip at unexpected moments in both losses. If the deadly backline is to be maximised, the platform from the scrum needs to be spot-on. One suspects it's more a concentration problem than a technical issue.
Failure to cope with rush defence: The Wallabies took up where the Springboks left off by putting enormous pressure on the All Blacks midfield with some rush defence. Suddenly the avenue to get quick ball to the slick outside backs was cut off. It can be a risky tactic but it's also highly effective when properly employed as these two losses showed with the All Blacks' liking for tries drying up.
The back row: This wasn't a pretty area in either loss as Henry and his selectors tinkered with some options. Now that Kieran Read is gone for the early part of the tournament with his ankle injury and Adam Thomson is out of the cup opener, there's a bit of a thin look to the stocks. It was sweet when we could rely on Richie McCaw, Jerome Kaino and Read as the settled top option but that's simply not possible right now. Brisbane showed how quickly injuries can complicate, especially when a double blow strikes in this key area. Doubts remain about specialist backup to McCaw at No 7.
Charge downs: Is Dan Carter getting a bit too cool with his clearing kicks? Charge downs are becoming a bit of a worrying trend and they can lead to disaster. Let's see a bit more urgency under pressure please!
Attitude: This key element was certainly flat in Brisbane and resulted in a horror start and an ugly and difficult game of catch-up as the match wore on. Let's hope this is a lesson learnt. The All Blacks ripped into things against the Wallabies in Auckland to win the Bledisloe Cup and the excitement of the World Cup should generate the right sort of attitude to make sure things happen from the opening whistle. In a tournament that is looking increasingly tight, this could be an ingredient that ultimately separates teams.




Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/rugby-union/un...#ixzz1WZCIA4Tb

[ACoochy]

Very Glad jumped on Wallabies when they were +450....+270ish at most books now

[beefcake]

I think Wales at +500 to win their group is worth a punt guys..SA is not what they were...

[reedy]

Not sure what were you're from matters. But we can agree to disgree.

[reedy]

I think Wales at +500 to win their group is worth a punt guys..SA is not what they were...

SA always show up for the world cup. i think they win their group convincingly.

[RLF]

They'll lose to Wales first up mate.

[reedy]

They'll lose to Wales first up mate.

Wales get beatdown at the breakdown in 1st half and never recover??? Plus seems like most of their players are made of glass. SA -13.5 at pinny right now. I won't touch but still think they win.

[reedy]

Also Tonga +66.5 right now in opening game vs NZ. Back door cover anyone????

[(Reyes)]

Aus master the cup

[ExodusNZ]

Wales get beatdown at the breakdown in 1st half and never recover??? Plus seems like most of their players are made of glass. SA -13.5 at pinny right now. I won't touch but still think they win.

There is a chance Wales wont even get in!! Samoa!

[PickApprentice]

I agree with you credits. The only nations that are capable of winning the WC are NZ, Aus, SA and France. The rest I give them no chance and they are there to make up the numbers.

NZ- Home nation and pressure is on Henry to deliver the world cup to the public. If they don't win, then he is definitely gone. My personal opinion is that they should have fired him 4 years ago after the last world cup. NZ definitely has the talent to win the WC, nobody in this world can question that. The problem is how will they cop if Carter or McCaw gets injured. Look what happened against France in the last WC, where Carter went off. The worst part about the All blacks is the number 9 position. I believe that is the worst part of the team. If they have a better number 9 like Fourie or Will, then I will go all out on NZ to win the WC. I find number 9 is very important for a team, if they are going to win, then whoever plays at number 9 must play like a champ. The point is all black is vulnerable, and Henry knows that as well. This will make them not become over-confident which is a positive thing.

Australia - they have shown that they can match the all blacks and SA any day with their players. The tri-nation game against the all black in NZ just showed how hungry the Aussies are and they tried their best, but still came out second best. They learnt a good lesson on that day, IMO. I thought it was a well-deserved tri nation title for them as they played the hardest out of all matches and they wanted to win. The best weapon that the Aussies have in 9 10 and 11 and Mr Dean. The three reds players will be the key to their success in the world cup on the field. Dean is a smart coach and even if they don't have the quality like NZ all over the field, you feel safe with him as a coach going into the world cup.

Springboks - SA will always be there very world cup, you are stupid to write them off. They probably have a below-average coach going into the world cup. Don't underestimate the team. Muir (Assistant) and Erasmus (Technical advisor) are probably two of the best coaches in SA at the moment. So it is not all about PDV, and sometimes I feel he gets too much glory because he is the head coach. Watchout for this name - brussow. He can win the world cup for SA as long as the rest of the team does a good job to back him up and he doesn't get injured. All blacks really struggled in PE because of him.

France - personally, I don't know much about France, as I am from southern Hemisphere. From what I see in the warm up matches, the one thing I admire them is the depth in the squad. They can make 13 changes in one week and still beat the crap out of Ireland at Dublin(I think). The cave-man is not even in the squad, it shows what great talent they have at their disposal. Stats don't lie and if you want a team to beat NZ in a WC, I will pick France any day.

The rest:
England - don't have the backline to matchup and I think it is still too early for them to get one this year. Still re-building.
Wales - not a chance. If they beat SA, then it is the WC for them.
Scotland - ???? No comments.

The surprise packages:

I rate the pacific island nations highly this world cup. The gap is closing now with more of their players playing overseas and their forward plays improving. I think they will surprise a few.


Most importantly the picks:

I know I willn't be popular here, and I would like to be proved wrong. I don't think McCaw will lift the world cup this year. NZ will be the team to beat this year and all contenders know that very well. They would have studied them really hard even pre-tournament. The Aussies showed that with good homework, you can put them under pressure. They have the players, but I still don't think Henry is the right man, and they will regret the mistake of not firing him and wasting a generation of all black players.

The final is going to be decided on kicking. That is for sure, and any team can win on the day if the kickers is on form. Aussies has too may kickers and this might play against them as one of them don't kick well, then there is the temptation of switching. Steyn is always reliable for SA, but the question is will he start ahead of James. The last two WC showed how important kicking is in the final final. This world cup is like the Reds v Crusaders v Stormers all over again

I have nothing against the All Blacks, but I don't think this will happen this year. I really do hope that I am proved wrong in a month time!

All I can say is good luck to the All Blacks and let's hope for a fair world cup and may the best team win on the day!