[milwaukee mike]

this line looks good to me

verlander 1.59 era in his last 5 starts vs minnesota
blackburn 6.58 era in his last 4 starts vs detroit

i wouldn't lay the enormous -275 chalk but the run line looks good

[jjgold]

It seems too easy vs the high ML

Why??

[darrell74]

I agree.
I smell a trap. Spooky line
Bunches of other games to look at.

Pass

[milwaukee mike]

you guys could smell a trap all you want, this was the best game on the board.
very easy 7-1 winner

have you guys seen me lose picks or have any reason to doubt me? all i do is win

[ACoochy]

Gl mikey
Nice avi btw

[wantitall4moi]

It seems too easy vs the high ML

Why??

A lot of reason. Typically a -275 home fav is going to be -140 to -150. In August the only games Tigers have won have been by just one run. That and theyre only playing around 500 ball in August. The total was also 8U. The name Verlander costs you something, even though his last 4 starts were wins, they were also only by one run. So -120 was pretty much the number they thought they could post to get people to bet the RL. If people dug and looked at stuff they might not be willing to bet -135 or even -130, even though technically those odds wouldnt have been bad either for a -275 home favorite.

[Pete0]

good job dude !!

After a long and hard debate with myself I took the 1h -0.5 myself

[milwaukee mike]

A lot of reason. Typically a -275 home fav is going to be -140 to -150. In August the only games Tigers have won have been by just one run. That and theyre only playing around 500 ball in August. The total was also 8U. The name Verlander costs you something, even though his last 4 starts were wins, they were also only by one run. So -120 was pretty much the number they thought they could post to get people to bet the RL. If people dug and looked at stuff they might not be willing to bet -135 or even -130, even though technically those odds wouldnt have been bad either for a -275 home favorite.

decent analysis but that same line of thinking gets you to avoid bargains rather than embrace them.
like in 2009 when the dow jones went down to 6500 and people thought "oh no it's crashed so it must be a terrible time to buy"...

yes the tigers were winning by one run but that wasn't with a pitcher/heads up era differential vs the opponent of 5 RUNS!!
very rare to find a differential like that and a lopsided pitching matchup like that.

every time i see a pitching matchup that lopsided and a runline of only -120 i'm taking it, way more than 50% chance of winning situations like that

[milwaukee mike]

thanks pete and coochy

coochy, do you watch gossip girl?

[wantitall4moi]

decent analysis but that same line of thinking gets you to avoid bargains rather than embrace them.
like in 2009 when the dow jones went down to 6500 and people thought "oh no it's crashed so it must be a terrible time to buy"...

yes the tigers were winning by one run but that wasn't with a pitcher/heads up era differential vs the opponent of 5 RUNS!!
very rare to find a differential like that and a lopsided pitching matchup like that.

every time i see a pitching matchup that lopsided and a runline of only -120 i'm taking it, way more than 50% chance of winning situations like that

I didnt say I agreed or disagreed just citing why it may have looked too good to be true.

Lines like that are why people have conspiracy theories or scream 'trap'. There are most definitely reasons as to why a line might be 'off' as much as 10-20 cents, they just generally arent ones most people will be able to look up or find out., That one was one of the more obvious ones.

Or another way to look at it the RL was 'right' and they inflated the money line 30-40 cents. Which is a whole other discussion and set of conspiracies.

either way it won and was a bargain price.