1. #1
    SaintsFan
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    Join Date: 08-12-11
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    Opinions on hedging - I have a unique situation

    First post - this seems like a great site so I'm eager to hear some opinions.

    I'm a part-time ticket broker and I own over 50 season tickets to the New Orleans Saints which are very profitable.

    Here's the issue: If the Saints win the NFC South and host at least 1 home playoff game, I would make about $15,000 scalping the tickets. Since the Atlanta Falcons are the primary threat to the Saints achieving this goal, should I hedge by betting ON the Falcons strategically until they are no longer a threat? When the Falcons win, I will win money immediately. When the Falcons lose, I would "win" in that the Saints would gain a half game in the standings.

    Similar questions exist for other "threats" such as Tampa Bay, Green Bay, Philadelphia, etc when it comes to both the NFC South Title (in the Bucs' case) and the hosting of a possible NFC Title Game in New Orleans (in the Packers, Eagles, Giants, Bears' case).

    I'm anxious to hear your thoughts and if hedging in this manner is seen as a viable option I'd love to explore a weekly strategy/gameplan further.

    Many thanks

  2. #2
    Not-A-Kid
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    Ticket brokers are cokksuckers. Buy a bunch of tickets up as fast as you can and hold them ransom. Fukkn tickets are expensive enough without you fukks trying to turn a buck at the expense of some father trying to take his son to a fukkn game.

    But since that ship has sailed in your case, I think the Falcons will win the NFC South this year barring injuries but it should be a tightly contested race. FWIW I think the Falcons are being overlooked and they at least make it to the NFC Championship if not the Super Bowl, BUT, if injuries cause Brees and Ryan to miss significant time (4 games or more a piece, unlikely but possible) Tampa could win the division and you'd be DOUBLE FUKKED. Risk-benefit ratio though says hedge with a FUTURE bet on the Falcons to win the NFC South and you'll likely make money either way. Hell, you could put a small bet on the Falcons winning the NFC and/or Super Bowl as well at good odds. Week to week seems extremely risky if you're wanting a "for sure" way to make money.
    Last edited by Not-A-Kid; 08-12-11 at 04:26 PM. Reason: .

  3. #3
    SportsMushroom
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    hedging on individual games is probably not a good idea assuming that the falcons will be favorites in most of them and the odds will be too low

    maybe you can hedge by placing an outright bet on the falcons to win the division

  4. #4
    Waterstpub87
    Slan go foill
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    Call the CME group in New York and have them create an over the counter derivative for you. They'll do it and it'll be much better odds then a bookie would give you.

  5. #5
    SaintsFan
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    Quote Originally Posted by Waterstpub87 View Post
    Call the CME group in New York and have them create an over the counter derivative for you. They'll do it and it'll be much better odds then a bookie would give you.
    All good suggestions and I feel like a complete moron for not thinking of simply betting the Falcons at around +140 to win the NFC South option.

    I'm definitely going to do some type of action which covers my risk and puts money in my pocket come January. Just speaking out of my ass here, but I think the Saints win the NFC South 11 times out of 20, Atlanta 7 times out of 20, and Tampa Bay wins it 2 times out of 20. All three are good teams.

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