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I couldn't have said it any better myself. The more you enjoy watching a sport, the more you'll follow it daily, the better you'll be at betting it (that's if you know what your doing ex. money management, picking your spots, staying away from parlays etc.)Originally Posted by MoneyLineDawg
yeah you got me bad last year on the saints playoff thing.
i still made money on football last year but you only show up when i lose. i destroyed the nfl playoffs last year.
Last edited by lakerboy; 08-12-11 at 10:22 PM.
That is exactly the case. I will add just a little more... I also believe that if you're an oddsmaker... you would only factor in a line to get even money on both sides, correct? Well... what if you could confuse the public in making up an unbelievable line in which... you're still going to take the soft favorite? For example... Team A AT -3. And instead of moving the line to -3.5 like most books do Mirage likes to typically hold strong and go -3 -120. The theory is... they know TEAM B at +3 has a better angle on this contest. So what if Team A still received 70% leverage... with only 30% on Team B. My point is... I think VEGAS is smarter than we suggest. It's not always 50/50 action. They know when to hold a line and take their own shots at THE PUBLIC. Imagine paying out only 30%? Taking in 70%? Wow... I believe there's at least one of those games each week on the board... you just have to be alert.
There use to be a few services out there they would measure Steam plays... and Public flow to one side. I personally believe line movement is huge. Understanding that casinos line movement telegraphs the correct outcome or prediction (if you will) of a contest. Casinos/books aren't ignorant. I also feel there are a few offshore books that telegraph the outcomes as well. So, in all essence it's not about the research of the a typical NFL Team... who's in or who's out... it's more or less studying the books line movement. To me... that's the critical component in making a profit in the NFL.
the lines open on Sunday Nite....the market has all week to correct them, they are the sharpest lines, there are..anyone who says they can beat the NFL long term is an idiot or a liar,ever notice how the spread(total) hangs" in the balance' during the fourth quarter ??? much of the time ????? the only "weakness" in those lines, is that the books have to allow for....supply and demand ie( public perception ).....Line movement ??? I have seen the whole board move in one direction..before game time....the wrong way
one thing I would watch though......moves on the moneyline during the week...sometimes the big move is during the week...not close to gametime
Last edited by JR007; 08-13-11 at 09:25 AM.
but when they are buried by the end of sept they will say i cant wait for the nba.
they hate bases but its the only game where there is money to be made for sure while nfl and nba are hard to beat. nfl preseason is good.
the best part is that when they lose there rolls they might not even have nba to turn to. books will love it if there is a full season lost by the nba.
i love the NFL to death, analyze every single player on every single roster until I bleed, and live for the ball being kicked off the tee.
i dont bet nba or mlb so i dont know if you are right about how they are capped or not, but i disagree with your thoughts on the NFL.
the NFL is where the money is at, if you understand the X's and O's of the game to a higher level. Its about picking the 1 game a week where the better team is the underdog, and playing a big part of your bankroll on it.
I dont know why you feel that you speak on behalf of the entire nation in your posts where you say NFL cant be beat. Speak for yourself budGood work in MLB though. You've definitely got a bit of talent in MLB capping.
To all the guys claiming to make money, and maybe you do. The ROI isnt nearly as high as it is in any other sport, there simply arent enough betting opportunities.
So basically if you are 'making a lot of money' youre betting a lot of money. reward versus risk just isnt there.
Unless youre making bets that are all over the place in terms of a unit size then you cant possibly hope to make the same type of money as betting baseball.
There are 256 NFL games a year. So say by some miracle you find 200 betting opportunities (about 10 a week counting playoffs), between halves, totals, sides, quarters, whatever. And you go a miraculous 55%. Betting roughly the same amount or same sort of bets of 1,2 or 3 units. So we make your average win 2.25 units per game (which it more than likely wouldnt be, but for the sake of the argument.) So that would mean your re going to be 105-90-5. So youre looking at around a 34 unit profit. Doesnt sound too bad, but remember this is a return that is nearly impossible to obtain.
A more realistic one would be you bet maybe 150 times during the season, around 7 bets a week. You hit 53% if youre lucky, you get reduced vig and you throw in a ML dog here or there that hits. BTW these are for guys that know what theyre doing. not degenerates who bet huge on a late Sunday game or Moday game to get even. So under those conditions youre looking at maybe a 10-12 unit increase. A couple bad bounces or missed FG or special teams error and youre even or losing for the season.
Football is the perfect sport for books, they have people over a barrel. You lose 10 or 12 in a row in baseball you still have a couple thousand more bets before the season ends. In football you lose 10 in a row youre begging just to get back to even, or I suppose you could just go all in and hope. Which is always a great money management practice. Because really the only way to win at football is to take an approach that doesnt make any sense and do well at it. So it is either get rich or go broke strategy basically, and not one most guys trying to make long term profits under take.
@TheMoneyShot - Can you explain more about what to look for and how to interpret the information?
wrong bud.
you dont need to play 200 games to win money.
play a higher percentage of your bankroll and play it on winners. its that simple. play on hungry teams with a good qb that are dogs and play 2-3 grand on it instead of pussy 100 bets and if you know the game the game will respect you
people who rely too heavily on line movement are vegas's suckers.
What you say makes sense I suppose, but I've still consistently earned best at NFL... I just "get" the sport, the players, the coaches, the strategies, best among the four sports.
Agreed , but I notice on your preseason plays you are betting 1 halfs, so you must be looking at, at something that the public isn't......quarterback rotations ????...everything will change starting in regular season, turnovers ?? kinda tough to handicap them......
Last edited by JR007; 08-13-11 at 10:23 AM.
nice play on the Rays last night Lakerboy but just b/c you don't win money on football doesn't mean everyone can't win money on football.
Football is by far my best sport.
i actually like baseball better than football from a fan stand point... but football is easy to predict.
LMAO, like I said bad money management is the only way to make money betting football.
Which leads to get 'rich' or go broke.
Edit. So you bet 30 games and you hit 18 out of 30 for 5 grand each. thats 24 grand. Not exactly what I call getting rich. You risked 150K to get back 24. I can risk 150K in baseball risk free and make between 12 and 18k. Add a minimal risk and it would surpass that 24K it took the whole football season to obtain.
Last edited by wantitall4moi; 08-13-11 at 11:18 AM.
You say NBA is hard to beat, so why would books love it if a full season of making money is lost?
im only 25 so i dont know about you older guys but for me 3 grand for a play is a lot of money.
you guys are doing exactly what he wants and thats attention. He makes these stupid threads because he loves the attention its hilarious.
IMO there are games in which you can cap and should know the outcome... or suggest the outcome. There are also games in which you are undecided but the book or casino (with the help on live movement) can lead you in the right direction with your play. You have to stick to your bread and butter and strengths when making a selection. Studying line movement doesn't happen over night. You must study the match up (have a theory), watch the outcome and then study last 20 minutes of line movement. Remember what the opening line was 6 days ago... compared to the closing line. I'm not going to mention the offshore books names... because they could adjust. Whether it's all done by computers, numbers, figures, or percentages... I couldn't tell you. But their are some hungry books out there who have done their homework that will tip the play for you.
Your mind has to operate like a computer. Let the figures come to you. You can't rush it. It's not fool proof... it doesn't work every time but you're trying to put the system on your side.
For example... why does Pinnacle blue dot, red dot, or no dot a game? You think it's just minimum and maximum bet related??? There's more to it than that. Every offshore book has a system... you have to study their system. Maybe I'm just lucky? I couldn't tell you? Maybe I beat the horse until it can't ride anymore? Then I go to a different system.
I'm just saying... watch closely to all books... vegas opening line to closing line... to what the offshore books are showing. The games that are almost perfectly in rhythm... same lines... same juice... same patterns... those are the games you need to jump on.
I am really excited for football. If I can't win money the first couple weeks of the season I think I might be done gambling. Knock on wood but I am pretty confident in my football handicapping ability.
Honestly man, everyone is different. I've been betting seriously for about 6 years, and I have won every single season in college basketball and college football, and I had one bad year in the NFL but every other year was in the green.but when they are buried by the end of sept they will say i cant wait for the nba.
they hate bases but its the only game where there is money to be made for sure while nfl and nba are hard to beat. nfl preseason is good.
the best part is that when they lose there rolls they might not even have nba to turn to. books will love it if there is a full season lost by the nba.
MLB has been the worst sport to me, I've had some red years, in the green this year and last year though. Its funny though, I've played baseball since I was 5, even played some at a division 1 school for 2 years before I got tired of pitching like 1 inning every week only. So it is easily the sport I know the most about, but hasn't translated to success until recently.
Never played a down of football in my life, but those 3 team 10 point teasers are always good to me.
But my point was everyone thinks the easiest sport to cap is the sport they are good at capping. I honestly think college sports is where the most money is to be made.
MLB has been good to me though this year, and I love hammering elite pitchers in the post season, so I don't want baseball to end, but I am happy football is here.
Too bad you don't have the stats for it or else you would know otherwise.
Last Week`s Win/Loss Figure: 815 USD
Football sure does suck.
Last Week`s Win/Loss Figure: 815 USD
Football sure does suck.
I can't wait for the Jets to win the super bowl. As for betting I just pick my spots in NFL. My fav. Is NCAA basketball.
I'm excited for football because it's far and away the most interesting sport to watch
I like baseball, I really do, but it's nowhere near as entertaining as football is
Is this brah serious
its common math the nfl thing. if you only have 256 regular season games you arent gonna have nearly as many opportunities to make money as you would in other sports. since every game matters so much being that each team only plays 16 games a year, you dont find nearly as many good situational bets. college football at least you have a plothera of games, roughly around 750 for the regular season. college basketball, mlb, nba, nhl, multiple betting opportunities galore.
But at least football is a little more consistent than baseball. The worst team in baseball can beat the best team in baseball like 10-1 and its really not a huge deal.
Can the worst team in the NFL destroy the best team in the NFL? No... Not possible.
And more on that line, you can make a perfect bet in baseball, it be 5-1 going into the last inning and then lose 6-5... you're not going to lose many football games up 35-7 going into the 4th quarter.
I'm surprised you haven't done well traditionally betting on football man
football totals are 50 times easier than baseball totals for example. You can take the Steelers playing at home against some shtty offense and that game will go under 60% of the time
I pretty much throw the unders of Ravens/Steelers type games into 10 point teasers and watch the money roll in.
I love waking up on an NFL sunday, teasing the Ravens Steelers under to like 43 and watching it be like 10-7 final while my other teased lines are 2 huge favorites at like -1 and they both cruise.
yeah I have played baseball my whole life and I really know the game.. but it hasn't translated into much success betting for me. I get hot and go on a nice run every now and then but then I will go ice cold and give it all back.
on the other hand I have never really played football but I am very successful betting on it. At least I have been in the past. Hopefully the success will continue this season.
yup and i said preseason was good.Last Week`s Win/Loss Figure: 815 USD
Football sure does suck.
it's only entertaining when you are winning money, see how it feels when you lose a total or side in the last two minutesit ain't over till it says FINAL
"PREVENT DEFENSE PREVENTS YOU FROM COVERING"
Last edited by JR007; 08-23-11 at 10:17 AM.
LB vs Paco grudge match I can't wait
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