[Fishhead]

USDA’s Crop Production report released this morning caught just about everybody by surprise, and while the numbers were bullish for all of the major crops, the soybean numbers were the highlight.
“Soybeans may have the most upside price potential,” says Jack Scoville, vice president of the Price Futures Group, Chicago. Scoville was the guest commentator on this morning’s MGEX conference call.
USDA lowered estimates for planted acreage, harvested acreage, average yield, and carryout on soybeans. According to today’s report, USDA estimates soybean production at 3.06 billion bushels, down 8% from last year. In its first field-based survey of the year, USDA put this year’s average soybean yield at 41.4 bushels per acre, a drop of 2.1 bushels from last year.

The department’s estimate on harvested acreage of 73.8 million acres fell 1% from June’s estimtate and is a 4% decline from 2010. Planted area fell fractionally from USDA’s June estimate to 75 million acres.

Scoville expects November soybean futures to retest and break through their highs near $14/bu. “Then $15.25 and $15.50 would be the next target for the bulls,” Scoville says.

Chad Hart, agricultural economist with Iowa State University, recommends soybean producers sit tight before placing a hedge in the futures market. “I’ve been waiting for the soybean market to blow up,” says Hart. “It’s been so tight for so long.”

If November beans close limit-up today, a real possibility, prices tomorrow are likely to break through $14/bu. “This could be a two-day report,” Hart says. “Producers should give it at least a couple of days to play out.”

[Fishhead]

Corn up nearly 5% on the day!!

[jarvol]

[Fishhead]

Can't wait to see the closing numbers today..........and what tommorow will bring.

Exciting times!