[sag3000]

Hi dear fellow sportsinvestors
I've been thinking about starting my own thread for some time, and figured UFC 131, the first event in some time with a Norwegian fighter, would be a good place to start. I have enjoyed reading many of your insightful threads and used it to my advantage, and hopefully I can contribute some as well.

UFC 131 plays:

4 units on Einemo su @ +210. Of course there are many questions regarding a man who hasn't had a pro fight since 2006, but with his grappling credentials and trainging at GG I had to jump on this line. The line has now shifted to below what I capped it to at +150, and is now at +130. Because of that I feel quite good with my pick. I think he has good enough technique to deal with Herman standing, and although I think JOE lacks a bit of punching power, I feel he is crisp, and Herman has not got the best of neither head movement nor footwork.

1 unit on Nunes @ +240. Florian looked actually good at the weigh ins, but Nunes is a tough grinder who can take KenFlos spirit away in this fight. It's by no means an easy tune up fight for KenFlo, and I think the line was way off when I jumped on it.

2 fight parlay: Maia-Munoz under 2,5 rounds & Cerrone-Rocha over 2,5 rounds @ +312. Maia-Munoz is an intriguing match up! I really like it, and especially with both having clear paths as to how to win this fight. And I don't think that is by UD! The opposite I think can be said for Cerrone-Rocha where I feel like an UD for the cowboy is most likely. My local bookie do not offer method of victory odds, so I went for the next best thing.

BOL everybody

[Vaughany]

Good stuff, welcome my man

[sag3000]

Thank you for the kind welcome
Wow, that was a bad start, loosing approx. 4 % (6 units) of my bankroll in one event. I think some of the fights could've swung the other way, but there's no use in crying I guess, but rather pick better next time, eh?

Cerrone vs Rocha:
My first thought was how annoying Rogan's bias towards Cerrone was. I actually thought Rocha did well for him self standing, except he should have checked more leg kicks. He was aggressive, scored a takedown, and I was a bit nervous for my bet, because it was placed on the assumption of Cerrone playing it safe and outpointing him standing. If he thought that Rocha might have won the first round he could be more anxious for getting a finish and ruining my bet, but luckily Greg assured a decision, and my bet went in. Good start for the main card. Was suprised I got the over 2,5 rounds at + money, but it turned out to be more close than what I had predicted.

Einemo vs Herman:
Well, maybe I should look into my own biases before "bashing" Rogan, but when a fellow Norwegian steps in to the octagon I can't help be excited. I think Einemo did a good job. He showed he was not very technical in the stand up, even with all his training at the GG-gym, but since Herman didn't show much head movement he was still landing good shots. When he got Herman to the ground and passed his guard with EASE, I shouted for a finish, but alas he lost him. The end of the fight was a true thriller, and JOE was too eager to get a finish in his debut and was rushing a lot with no guard, just swinging. Sad to see him get tko-loss, but I think he can come back from this. I must admit, though, that I was verrrrry disapointed in his clinch game! He trains with Sergei and Allistair, and still Pee Wee got the better of most clinches.
All in all I think there is no denial in the value of my bet, as I jumped on it at +210, and it sunk to about +130 or something before the fight, and the fight could just as easily ended in a tko-victory for the Norwegian.

Maia vs Munoz:
I was actually not so surprised to see Maia outstriking Munoz in the beginning, and was cheering for either Munoz to swing his powerful hands wildely, or Maia to take him down and submit him when Munoz had been enough distracted and forgot Maias lateral throws. Maybe a finish in this fight was a bit farfetched, and in hindsight it was not a well-thought wager, but I think at +110 there was some value. I'm just regretting putting it with the cerrone-rocha bet in a parlay and screwing that up.

Nunes-Florian:
Florian seems to fit in the 145, but wtf one judge giving the first round to Florian? I thought that one was very clear all Nunes. Two knockdowns in total for Nunes, but he was drained from loosing much blood after som razorsharp KenFlo-elbows, and couldn't get a finish. Still, in hindsight, the line felt off and I don't blame myself for playing it.

This event was maybe to much line-shopping, instead of playing the ones I actually thought would win. Maybe I have to adjust slightliy, but in the long run, shouldn't you place your wager in the line you feel has the most value. Good to see other on this board comming up ahead. Nice work! Hopefully I'll do better next time

[RaiderNation MMA]

this guy is very positive!!

[sag3000]

Thank you
My plays for Strikeforce this weekend:

Chad Griggs: 2,5 units @ -125
Had this capped to -150 and decided it a no play when it opened around -170. Seems like som cash has come in on Valentijn, perhaps because of name recognition? Decided to play when it got to current odds. I think Griggs will overwhelm V.Reem, and set a pace he can't follow. I think W.Reem has shown weakness to this before, and don't seem to handle pressure too well. Also I see him having a hard time getting it to the ground for a sub. if Griggs wants to keep it standing.

1,75 units on B. Rogers by tko/ko @ +420
hedged with 3,25 units on J. Barnett by sub @ +180

I see many here like Wilcox at +odds, but I have a tendency to like fighters with an aggressive guard and a varied arsenal of strikes standing. In short, I like Jz, but think this is a closer fight than Griggs-Overeem, so I think I'll pass at current odds.

Best of luck to everyone

[blumpkin]

I agree on your chad griggs play.. i see -140 right now at bm and going to wait to see if it drops any lower. good luck

[jspectyper]

Not a bad play on griggs but not sure about the rogers fight. Either way bol.

[bjpenn85]

Velkommen sag3000. Det blir en glede å kunne gjøre raske ordvekslinger på norsk. Dette forumet rocker. Vinner du ikke her, vinner du aldri. Desverre til det punktet at bookiene selvsagt legger restriksjoner å gjør d umulig å spille. Men den tiden har ikke nådd meg helt enda. Uansett ,velkommen skal du være!!

[sag3000]

Haha, takk for det BJ Har gjort stor suksess med å følge folk her, ja

[sag3000]

My plays for Strikeforce this weekend:

Chad Griggs: 2,5 units @ -125

1,75 units on B. Rogers by tko/ko @ +420
hedged with 3,25 units on J. Barnett by sub @ +180

Units out: 7,5
Units in: 14,6
Total Strikeforce Dallas: +7,1 units

Satisfied with end result, and it's good coming back from my 6 units loss last UFC

[Vaughany]

Gd job bro

[sag3000]

My plays for UFC Live 4:

Kongo to win, 1,9 units @ -190. Got on this way late. Better people have given better reasons as to why make this play, but Pat Barry is too one-dimensional. Small play as I got on it too late. Would have been a big bet at -150, but when the odds lands on what I have capped it to, then for the most part I play to win 1 unit.

Kongo vs Barry goes 3 round distance, 1,25 units @ +140. I think this is value. It's the trend in the ufc to fight to not loose, rather than to win, and I think Kongo might be somewhat tentative in his approach to dismanteling Barry.

Would have been eager to watch for the Griffin and Lentz odds, but I'm going away for the weekend and will have no internet, so these are my only plays.

Best of luck everybody!

[sag3000]

Wow, what an event! Very satisfied with this free show.
Great sub by Lauzon, I think he will rise again from his loss to G-Sot, and get a top5 match soon

I went -.25 units for this event and it's entirely my fault for being impatient. Since I went away before all of the lines was put up, I was betting on 2 of 5 lines. Didn't like the odds on Meathead, and the favourites lost in Story and Dooms, but shouldn't have jumped on the distance prop. I think noone had predicted the fight of Kongo vs Barry, and proves again that there is no such thing as a lock.

For UFC 132 I will be more patient before picking, but I'm already thinking of two great dogs in Condit @ EV and Wiman @ +115.

[bjpenn85]

neh. condit har jo ikke takedown defense mot en av de beste i divisjonen til å ta folk ned, jeg ville anbefale deg å holde deg til helvete unna å bette condit. wiman derimot, har jeg stor tro på. jeg vil heller bette aggresivt på melvin guillard og backe up med shane roller submission siden han muligens vil ha store problemer med å ta ned guillard i to runder for å vinne en decision. alikevell får du nærmere 6.8 i odds på roller decision, så bare ett lite beløp kan dekke tap her. Men som jeg presiserte ovenfør i stad, å faktisk legge sin lit i at condit klarer å holde unna kim er rett og slett gambling når han har bevist seg så udyktig på dette punktet historisk sett. guillard, bowles,wiman og muligens dos anjos får jeg god nok odds er hva jeg går for. ellers har jeg ett lite beløp på condit tko seff, men d tror jeg er sjansen han har i denne kampen.

[sag3000]

Ja, jeg er enig i at guillard er mannen og spille på her, men av underdogs mener jeg Wiman og Condit har mest verdi. I tillegg Dos Anjos som du nevner er veldig interessant. Har ikke sett på den før du nevnte det nå, gått litt i glemmeboka at g-sot har fått ny motstander, men om Dos Anjos er dog her er han veldig interessant.

Mine tanker på Condit går på sammenlikningen med Diaz. Veit at mmath ikke er så bra til å sammenlikne, men Condit har mye bedre bevegelse enn Diaz. I tillegg er de like på en ting, å sette et tungt tempo på kampen. Forskjellen er at Diaz ikke stresset mer med å få til en avslutning når Kim var utslitt, mens Condit garantert kommer til å gå inn for en kill. Vil muligens hedge med en stun gun dec. men vet ikke helt. Mulig det er noe som forkludrer synet mitt, men har en magefølelse på Condit..

[bjpenn85]

I tillegg, ville jeg hvis jeg var deg ville jeg prøvd å få ryan bader decision og tko. Jeg antar at du vil få noe rundt 1.50 Backes opp med tito ortiz 5 i odds. Verre er d ikke!!!!!! Dos anjos til 3.05 er slettes ikke værst heller. Bør kombineres med Gsotir, decision. Dos anjos har gått de siste 7 kampene sine til decision utenom en, så det er naturlig å tro statistisk og style-matchup tatt i betraktning at dette også vil ende slik. Vanskelig å se at at george vinner på noen annen måte enn en decision, tar man i betraktning at dos anjos har solid bjjj, og subba f.eks terry etim, som blandt annet har fått submission of the night to tre ganger, ikke at det er d viktigste. George submitta ikke joe stevenson eller kurt pellegrino og det viille overraske meg dersom han gjorde det her.

[bjpenn85]

Jeg har både tro og ønske om at condit skal kunne klare å snu kampen mot kim, av flere grunner enn at kim er en irriterende fighter, men jeg er usikker på om jeg ville satt penger på d. Men har men en magefølelse så skal jeg ikke si noe. Jeg kjenner til den følelsen hvor man vet man har rett, da bør man kanskje gi etter.

[sag3000]

Virker som om du har veldig kontroll, BJ, liker argumentasjonene dine
Angrer litt på at jeg begynte å lage thread, siden det er så mange andre som argumenterer og treffer bedre på bets enn meg, men vi kan jo bruke tråden som et sted å holde våre norske tanker

Altså for UFC 132:
Sot vs RDA: Jeg liker rda, spesielt fordi han er såppass durable. Føler at det ofte er noe å se etter på dogs når det ikke er topp 5 kamper det er snakk om, fordi det betyr at motstanderen ofte kan gjøre feil. Ref. feks Russow-fightene, Guida-Pettis. G-sot ble litt exposed mot Siver og viste dårlige takedowns, men det skal nok ikke mye justering til når han først er så god på å fange et bein. RDA viste seg legit mot Terry Etim, som du nevnte, (så nettopp kampen), men etter nesten et år siden forrige kamp tror jeg at G-sot vil vinne krigen for posisjoner på bakken. Etter litt mer omtanke er jeg ikke like interessert i RDA straight up, da må han i såfall hedges med G-sot decision som du sier, men mest sannsynlig no-play for meg.

Condit-DHK: For grunnene jeg allerede har nevnt, og fordi jeg har en følelse på han. Condit har ikke noe dårligere takedown defence enn nate diaz, og jackson har nok en plan på det her

Du er overbevisende på Bader-Oritz strategien, kommer jeg nok til å følge Håper forresten at Bader kun vinner såvidt over Ortiz så han kan bli en value dog senere. Hører rykter om at han er en av de som virkelig står på i gymmen, fra samme kilde som sa det samme om Mike Pyle og Cain (ta det dog med en klype salt da det var et anonymt internetforum).

Cruz kommer nok til å frustrere Faber mye. Tror faktisk han vinner en UD 50-45.. Bevegelsene, presisjonen, faints og oppsett gjør han så mye vanskligere å sloss mot enn Faber, imo..

Vil gjerne høre din argumentasjon for Wiman? Har selv penger på han, men jeg begynte først å argumentere for han selv etter at jeg så flere her inne likte han :P

[sag3000]

My plays and thoughts for UFC 132:

Straight plays:
D. Cruz 2.54 units @ -127. I think Cruz has shown that his good movement, constant faints and setting up of the takedown makes his wrestling better transitioned to MMA than Faber. He had no problem with Jorgenson, and been better at the things he already did well against Benavidez. I think in this fight Cruz will do better than against JB, and I predict a solid 50-45 UD. His timing and precice style of fast-twitching strike game will be to much for Faber. Nothing against Faber though, I'm sure he will be a threat to most fighters at 135, but not this cat. Cruz gets his revenge.

C.Condit 1 unit @ EV. I actually want to put more on this, but I know it's foolish to bet to much just because you like a guy (JOE fresh in mind, haha). Still, I sincerly think Condit stands a good chance in this one. He is prone to takedowns, but he is also active from bottom. I think it's fair to compare the diaz-fight with what Stun Gun is up against this time. Condit doesn't really bring anything radical new to the table, but where Diaz has a very in-your-face type of fighting which has made him easy to grab in previous fights, Condit shows more movement and with Jackson he is better to sticking to game plans. Condit also has shown willingness to still go for finishes, even if he's been taken to the ground previous rounds and clearly down on the score sheets. DHK faded against Diaz, but Nate still decided to clinch with him and allow him to hang on. Don't see Condit doing the same thing.

Wiman .5 units @ +115. This is actually a hard fight to cap, because the fight against Soti did tell more about George than it did Siver. But since there is much love for Wiman here I put some money down on the handsome man, mostly because Siver let his leg get caught numerous times even if he snug out of the hold.

Prop. bets:
DHK win 3 round dec. .5 units @ +125. Hedging my bets on Condit as I don't see Stun Gun finish Condit.

Condit wins in Round 3. .2 units +1425. Thank you HOFF! Kim Fades, Carlos grow stronger as the fight goes on.

Thoughts about no-play fights:
G-Sot vs RDA: I like Dos Anjos especially because he is durable and that often makes for predictable outcomes, and a durable dog is very often value. I've made money in the past on both Guida and Russow because of this. When they seldom gets finished it's always a chance the adversary choking at mid-tier level. Still there is too many unknowns. RDA has almost a year lay off, was G-Sot not 100 % when he faught Siver?

Master Bader vs Tito: Too much juice, but BJ had a great suggestion of playing Bader by TKO or Dec. I think I'll pass on this one, but as previous mentioned I hope Bader barely wins so he can be a value dog next fight.

Best of luck everybody!
Progress since start of thread:
UFC 131: -6.00 units
Strikeforce Dallas: +7,10 units
UFC Live on Versus 4: -.25 units

[sag3000]

Up 1.8 units on the event. Really wish I had the balls to put more on my boy Condit, but better safe than sorry. I would have thought Wiman would have realized his single legs wasn't that effective and shoot more powerdoubles with set up, but Sivers tdd has now passed as legit in my eyes. I wonder what will happen to G-sot and Bader now, as they have stooped down last two fights. Bader looked outright scared and like he didn't want to be in the cage.
Ruined a parlay for me as well..

[bjpenn85]

halla sag. Hvordan gikk det? jeg gikk 2 laken i pluss. Er on the roll om dagen. Cheik kongo ordna meg 2 laken helgen før.

Jeg spilte følgende:

- Kim decision/kondit straight - gikk i null
- bowles simpson
-rafael dos anjos, kjipern d pøsa, hva var d jeg sa?
- melvin guillard med cheik kongo i parlay
-Melvin TKO
- tapte med brad tavares, som gjorde en nogen lunde god figur
- Cruz decision/ backed up med faber straight, gikk i pluss

[sag3000]

Gikk $180 i pluss.. Greit nok. Sekslingen du ser ovenfor er noe restpenger som var på Betsson, derav den dårlige oddsen :P Spiller ikke sekslinger på "hovedkontoen"..

Grattis med Melvin TKO og RDA, bra spilt Burde fulgt opp magefølelsen på at Condit med mer enn $100 dollar, men man vet jo aldri..

Spiller du på Bellator?

[bjpenn85]

Jeg vant forøvrig på carlos condit tko, som jeg fikk til den latterlige prisen 6.50? Hårreisende dårlig oddsing. BTW oddsing la oss holde dette mellom oss. Kanskje noe brudd på kodeksen, men litt ego må man tillate seg å være. expekt driter seg til stadighet ut. Jeg er alltid innom når de legger ut mma odds. Skal ikke dra lenger tilbake enn ricardo lamas vs matt grice hvor expekt la utt lamas til 2.40 Den ble fjerna etter litt, men de cancelet ikke betten jeg la inn. expekt gjør sjelden det, noe jeg syns er svært rimelig, og fair, men antageligvis etter all sannsynelighet et resultat av dårlig håndverk enn gavmildhet. Rundt juletider vant jeg 5 laken på tre kamper som bare lå ute, 6 timer etter at kampen var ferdig. Nevnte bookie er ett av de aller mest klønete i bransjen vi befinner oss i. Hold øye med dem og varsl meg, så gjør jeg det samme. Egentlig burde vi vel egentlig blitt nærmere kjent, slik at vi kan gi hverandre instant messages hver gang noe skulle ha dukket opp. Når slik odds bli lagt ut, tar d ikke så langt før det blir merket. D skal sies at over tid har de gjort mindre feil enn tidligere. Det forekommer i ny og ne. Det var en periode i fjor, hvor jeg så og si ranet dem hver helg. akk ja..den tid er forbi.

Jeg er opprinnelig fra asker, 25 hva mer?

jeg spiller på bellator når noe dukker opp. det er et gunstig sted å tippe forde nivåforskjellene kan være svært store, eller svært små siden organisasjon er mindre og fighterne ikke nødvendigvis holder toppnivå. Mao vanskeligere for oddsmakerne og sette riktig odds. Jeg har stor tro på at pitbul slår joe warren i kommende, eller er d eventen etter der? rundt even eller bedre takker jeg gladelig ja til.

[bjpenn85]

og takk for det, gratulerer selv. gikk du 180 kr eller 180 dollar i pluss?

[bjpenn85]

ser jo nå at du skrev dollar

[sag3000]

Jeg hadde også stor tro på Pitbull skulle ha gode muligheter i rematchen, men han har dessverre måttet trekke seg
Synes Curan-Mann er veldig close, må se litt gamle fights før jeg bestemmer meg på den, håper på gode odds på Curan. Vet lite om Sandros motstander, det har jeg brent meg på før! Falcao-Harris ødela mye bla. :P

Skal sjekke ut expect

[bjpenn85]

Ja jævlig dumt å ikke gjøre research. Hvor er du fra og hva er status, hvis d ikke er for påtrengende å spørre?

[illmatick]

assholes.

[Chairib]

assholes.

[sag3000]

English it is then
BJ - check pm

Strikeforce Fedor vs Henderson:
Lots of fights which are Brawler vs Technical.

Scott Smith (17-8) vs Tarec Saffiedine (10-3)
Saffiedine might not have the KO power, but Smith is very wary of being hit in the head as he has stated and that will give Saff room to work his technical sound striking. I think Saff might rock Smith, but I'm not sure he will be able to get the finish.
Robbie Lawler (18-7) vs Tim Kennedy (13-3)
Lawler is a proven top dog against other brawlers like Manhoef, Lindland and Smith, but has failed when he has faced fighters with more than one way to win like Shields, Souza and Sobral. Kennedy is such a fighter in my eyes and allthough I feel like a dec is most likely, I wouldn't rule out a sub as he is quite aggressive and Lawler a fish out of water on the ground.
Paul Daley (27-10) vs Tyron Woodley (8-0)
Is a no play for me as I think Woodley is to unproven for the price. I'm more confident in the other two aforementioned.
Meisha Tate (11-2) vs Marloes Coenen (19-4)
The fact that Tate trains with Alpha Male and Barnett swings it for me at the current price, and I think if she can stay out of a first round sub, this fights is hers for the taking.
Fedor Emelianenko (31-3) vs Dan Henderson (27-8)
Extreme chins on both of these two, but I still have a feeling this will not go the distance. If it does, though, I doubt Fedor, as active and judge-pleasing he is in his performences will loose to right-hand-hendo. You might say alot about Hendo's wrestling, but in my eyes he's still a brawler and is not as technical as Fedor.

Plays:
Saff + Kennedy @ +102 - 0,74 units to win 1,5
Tate @ +110 - 1,43 units to win 3
Saff vs Smith over 2,5 runder @ +135 - 0,2 units to win 0,5
Fedor vs Hendo not 3 round dec @ -179 - 2 units to win 3,12
Fedor by decision @ +238 - 1,56 units to win 5,27

Good luck everyone!

[bjpenn85]

Sag, i forgot to mention the tate play.

[sag3000]

Strikeforce went well, and I've added a bet on the next strikeforce event as well.

Maximo Blanco to win 1.76 units @ +170 to win 3 units.
I think the line is off here because Blanco is not household name, but the kid is on a tear and has momentum and confidence to make this a hard night for Thomson.
I think striking wise he will get the best of Thomson, and he has the wrestling creditentials to keep the fight standing.

[Vaughany]

Yeah u had a solid night last wknd

[bjpenn85]

good job sag

[sag3000]

Thank you, so did you! Should have done as you and not played the Fedor-Hendo match, but at least I didn't loose any money, just tied up some as it ended inside the distance For the event I went +2,63 units

For UFC I'm looking to play Gustafsson if the Hamill-backers can get his price up to better than -200
Also I'm thinking of a Hendricks within the distance hedged with Hendricks-Pierce to buy off the risk. Don't see Pierce finishing Hendricks!
Most likely dog to come through is Pyle in my eyes, but I see there is some love for Sexy. Will be a no play for me. I actually had the pleasure of meeting mr. Belfort at the Xtreme Couture gym in Vegas couple of days ago and he looked very fit, but it was my first and only real life watching of a pro fighter so I might have been star struck..