1. #1
    LT Profits
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    When does a team that has lost 16 in a row offer good value?...

    TODAY

    Forget about the losing streak, I'll take King Felix at +135 or better (I got +137) vs. Phil Hughes every time.

  2. #2
    HoulihansTX
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    When they have a top 5 pitcher on the mound

  3. #3
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by HoulihansTX View Post
    When they have a top 5 pitcher on the mound
    A top 5 pitcher at +137 vs. a pitcher with a dead arm.

  4. #4
    Doc JS
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    If they've lost 16 in a row, I'm guessing King Felix pitched in at least a few of those games...

    Its still the M's and it's still the Yankees at home and the M's have still lost 16 in a row...

  5. #5
    trytrytry
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    like that play today.

  6. #6
    will2survive
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    I like King Felix (and he could win) but no point in taking the Mariners with a 16 game losing streak and against the Yankees. Sooner or later they'll win and you could possibly get double or probably more of your investment. I just assume not to pick the game.

  7. #7
    Glitch
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    probably lose 1-0. they're pitiful lately.

    but that is correct answer- with the king on the mound.

  8. #8
    Cap dat 4ss
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    I wouldn't play it for anything less than +150 but good luck to LT, I'm cheering for the M's!

  9. #9
    shushu
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    I agree with LT profits.....more of a fade Hughes play for me though......he's terrible. Small wager here

  10. #10
    og4667
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    good point but even at +135 might not be enough. Might take a shot on the alternate -1.5 +200

  11. #11
    pavyracer
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    Have a back up Martingale plan. A King does not lead a team with 16 losses in a row.

  12. #12
    Glitch
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    so many people (unfortunately myself included) have during this streak at some point said its a good idea to bet on this sh*t-stain of a team. this thread is no different. be careful. hernandez has pitched probably 4 times during this losing streak.

  13. #13
    jpowderly
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    I lost with King Felix last time . not again !!!!

  14. #14
    RubberKettle
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    How quickly 16 will go to 17 and then to 20.

    Can't back this bunch of nobs.

    Seattle has only scored over 4 runs 4x on this streak, I'd fancy the Yankees to get 4 runs off anyone at home.

  15. #15
    yisman
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    This is a beautiful spot to bet Seattle.

    Hughes just isn't good. He has not been good as a starter aside from a few good starts to begin last season.

    I don't know how long it's going to take people to understand this. I've been saying it since last season.

    Quote Originally Posted by will2survive View Post
    I like King Felix (and he could win) but no point in taking the Mariners with a 16 game losing streak and against the Yankees. Sooner or later they'll win and you could possibly get double or probably more of your investment. I just assume not to pick the game.
    What?

  16. #16
    ROYAJA8
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    Hughes may not be that good but that seattle offense is a joke. Take the great Yankees

  17. #17
    aceking
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    18-game losing streak

    Pending 7/27/11 1:05pm MLB Baseball 970 New York Yankees -1 -108* vs Seattle Mariners (F Hernandez - R must Start P Hughes - R must Start)

  18. #18
    deltgen
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    I suppose Hernandez at this number would rightfully get some people excited, but as for the theory that "they have to win eventually"--people have been saying that since about game 8 of the losing streak. With the Yankees playing in that field with Little League dimensions, the Mariners (regardless of starting pitcher) don't entice me. A loss is a loss, whether it be at +100, -110, or +2000.

  19. #19
    yisman
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    The "due" theory is rubbish. You don't pick a team because they've lost a certain amount in a row.

    You do take a team as a nice underdog when they're going with a vastly superior starting pitcher, though.

  20. #20
    chase hardy
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    I never bet a team on a losing streak, I keep betting against them until they finally win. Have made some good money doing this.

  21. #21
    bobby heenan
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    got it at 140 last night....war king felix

  22. #22
    Kindred
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    I took 135, getting a good price because of the losing streak

  23. #23
    rfr3sh
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    wanted to play yankees TT Under 4.5 but it is too juicy

  24. #24
    No coincidences
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    Felix has looked pitiful the last two times out. He's given up 10 runs and 20 hits in his last 14 IP. He's also thrown at least 115 pitches in seven of his last eight starts. Combined with the current state of the M's, and I don't see a ton of value here. Frankly, Seattle should be +150 in this spot.

  25. #25
    HoulihansTX
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    Quote Originally Posted by Glitch View Post
    so many people (unfortunately myself included) have during this streak at some point said its a good idea to bet on this sh*t-stain of a team. this thread is no different. be careful. hernandez has pitched probably 4 times during this losing streak.
    Felix pitched in the last game they won

    He has lost twice during this streak. But I think its safe to say that no other pitcher, sans a no-hit performance, would find success either.

  26. #26
    BigDofBA
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    I took the under.

  27. #27
    LostBankroll
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  28. #28
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by rfr3sh View Post
    wanted to play yankees TT Under 4.5 but it is too juicy
    I got this at -110

  29. #29
    HOT WINGS
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    Never good value IMO...... but took under. So hope M's win 3-0 for you

  30. #30
    LT Profits
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    Guys, the "due" theory is rubbish, I handicap each game on its own merit and completely ignore any winning or losing streak each team is on.

    And for those saying that Hernandez started four games during the streak, the whole point is that ha has never been this good a price vs. a struggling pitcher It's a simple case of buying low, as Felix may never be this price again for the rest of the season.

  31. #31
    wantitall4moi
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    yankees and the over

    people betting the due factor go broke pretty fast. Always bet WITH a streak winning or losing and youll be much better off.

  32. #32
    sonnybaby
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    the kings pitch count is gone be high early

  33. #33
    No coincidences
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    Guys, the "due" theory is rubbish, I handicap each game on its own merit and completely ignore any winning or losing streak each team is on.

    And for those saying that Hernandez started four games during the streak, the whole point is that ha has never been this good a price vs. a struggling pitcher It's a simple case of buying low, as Felix may never be this price again for the rest of the season.
    Felix is almost always this price when he pitches at Yankee Stadium, and I don't think he's ever had a team that's lost 18 in a row behind him before.

    He's 8-9 with a 3.47 ERA, LT -- not exactly defending Cy Young numbers.

  34. #34
    yisman
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    Quote Originally Posted by yisman View Post
    The "due" theory is rubbish. You don't pick a team because they've lost a certain amount in a row. You do take a team as a nice underdog when they're going with a vastly superior starting pitcher, though.
    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    Guys, the "due" theory is rubbish, I handicap each game on its own merit and completely ignore any winning or losing streak each team is on.
    Quote Originally Posted by wantitall4moi View Post
    yankees and the over people betting the due factor go broke pretty fast. Always bet WITH a streak winning or losing and youll be much better off.

    Who's betting on the due factor?

  35. #35
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by No coincidences View Post
    Felix has looked pitiful the last two times out. He's given up 10 runs and 20 hits in his last 14 IP. He's also thrown at least 115 pitches in seven of his last eight starts. Combined with the current state of the M's, and I don't see a ton of value here. Frankly, Seattle should be +150 in this spot.
    That is actually a great reason to be ON him here, he is still one of the best pitchers in baseball, Regression to the mean.

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