[pokernut9999]

Patty you fukk...

What are you thinking here?

Why not just take the over in the Team Total (3 or 3.5) if you think they will score some runs...

You dont plan on this Beavan fukk to shut down the Redsox in Boston, do you?

Lets hear it...

Look silly so far

[CanuckG]

a lot of idiots in this thread

[ApricotSinner32]

Squares gonna square.

[chantrain]

god damn the heavy public favorites look like complete shit these days. is there ever a point in backing these heavy public favorites? doesn't seem like it

[ApricotSinner32]

god damn the heavy public favorites look like complete shit these days. is there ever a point in backing these heavy public favorites? doesn't seem like it

No i don't care if the play wins 14-1 in general it's a horrible idea. It's why the books are in business.

[LockPickMaster]

Come on Sox, show me whatcha got

[wantitall4moi]

I cant do the math for you, but whatever. Even cherry picking teams with a lot of 1 run losses still doesnt show much of an improvement.

Besides you also fail to realize in your over zealousness to try and look smart that I would say 7 or 8 of those 1 run losses were when they were favored and thus the +1.5 wouldnt apply, unless you laid a lot of heavy juice on an alternate runline. And I am also sure that when they were dogs they probably werent enough of a dog to make them a positive expectation in the + runline area either.

Like I said I cant do the math for you but I would be willing to bet that betting nationals on the blind as dogs on the ML would be more profitable than betting them +1.5 RL on the blind. Even though in theory it is supposed to equal out, and even cherry picking a team like the nationals you still cant show a profit betting it. I would say betting them as dogs on the ML would have you up close to 5 units. Since they won about 5 or 6 games this year at +150 or more, a couple they won at +200 if I am not mistaken, so with your +1.5 RL those wins would have been reduced to around even money and or less depending on how you bet.

Trust me I was betting baseball before half you guys were born, and probably making a living betting sports before most of you go off the tit, so you arent going to show me anything that will prove anything to me in terms of results.

Bet Sea ML for the 260 or whatever it got to and call it a day. If they do lose and lose by exactly one run and you do happen to collect the +115 on your +1.5 , you got lucky, nothing more nothing less. It is basically insurance against a 'bad beat'. and it ia sucker bet. But keep using stats that are flawed to try and convince yourselves or others that betting the +1.5 runline is profitable or makes sense.

But just another lesson here, Sea got up to about +128 or so on the RL, so not only compounding a bad bet, but compounding it more with a badly timed bet.

Like I always say wins and losses dont matter it is what you get paid or lose in the course of collecting both that matters. Baseball is an excellent teacher for this because even cherry picking a team like the Nationals you still cant show a great improvement, if any at all. 30-35 or something like that as a dog. You gain maybe 12 wins if you bet them +1.5. So you go to 42-23. Your 35 losses go from -3500 (100 per unit) to 23 times whatever you had to lay for the +1.5, so if you had to lay an average of -150 you're probably breaking even. I know tonight there were around -190 on the +1.5 RL at +115 or so ML. So your 30 wins go from a +135 or so average (4000 or so for the 30 wins) for to having to lay around -130 or so So you go from laying a total of 7500 for a 500 dollar profit to laying 9750 (generous) for more than likely a loss. Sure you might collect 9500 but it cost you 9750 to do it. I said I wouldnt do the math, and I didnt but that was an educated guess. i am sure someone can pull it right up on how profitable they are this year as a ML dog and also as a +1.5 dog. But if I had to guess I would say +500 on the ML and with that many extra wins and the odds I have seen them at as dogs maybe +250 on the +1.5 runline, and that is cherry picking a team with a dozen one run losses. Start looking at teams who dont lose too many games by one run when theyre a dog and it isnt even close.

So if you guys want to pull stats out of your ass at least know how to use them.

[CanuckG]

^ patty is only taking +1.5 on + money anyways guy

[ApricotSinner32]

I cant do the math for you, but whatever. Even cherry picking teams with a lot of 1 run losses still doesnt show much of an improvement.

Besides you also fail to realize in your over zealousness to try and look smart that I would say 7 or 8 of those 1 run losses were when they were favored and thus the +1.5 wouldnt apply, unless you laid a lot of heavy juice on an alternate runline. And I am also sure that when they were dogs they probably werent enough of a dog to make them a positive expectation in the + runline area either.

Like I said I cant do the math for you but I would be willing to bet that betting nationals on the blind as dogs on the ML would be more profitable than betting them +1.5 RL on the blind. Even though in theory it is supposed to equal out, and even cherry picking a team like the nationals you still cant show a profit betting it. I would say betting them as dogs on the ML would have you up close to 5 units. Since they won about 5 or 6 games this year at +150 or more, a couple they won at +200 if I am not mistaken, so with your +1.5 RL those wins would have been reduced to around even money and or less depending on how you bet.

Trust me I was betting baseball before half you guys were born, and probably making a living betting sports before most of you go off the tit, so you arent going to show me anything that will prove anything to me in terms of results.

Bet Sea ML for the 260 or whatever it got to and call it a day. If they do lose and lose by exactly one run and you do happen to collect the +115 on your +1.5 , you got lucky, nothing more nothing less. It is basically insurance against a 'bad beat'. and it ia sucker bet. But keep using stats that are flawed to try and convince yourselves or others that betting the +1.5 runline is profitable or makes sense.

But just another lesson here, Sea got up to about +128 or so on the RL, so not only compounding a bad bet, but compounding it more with a badly timed bet.

Like I always say wins and losses dont matter it is what you get paid or lose in the course of collecting both that matters. Baseball is an excellent teacher for this because even cherry picking a team like the Nationals you still cant show a great improvement, if any at all. 30-35 or something like that as a dog. You gain maybe 12 wins if you bet them +1.5. So you go to 42-23. Your 35 losses go from -3500 (100 per unit) to 23 times whatever you had to lay for the +1.5, so if you had to lay an average of -150 you're probably breaking even. I know tonight there were around -190 on the +1.5 RL at +115 or so ML. So your 30 wins go from a +135 or so average (4000 or so for the 30 wins) for to having to lay around -130 or so So you go from laying a total of 7500 for a 500 dollar profit to laying 9750 (generous) for more than likely a loss. Sure you might collect 9500 but it cost you 9750 to do it. I said I wouldnt do the math, and I didnt but that was an educated guess. i am sure someone can pull it right up on how profitable they are this year as a ML dog and also as a +1.5 dog. But if I had to guess I would say +500 on the ML and with that many extra wins and the odds I have seen them at as dogs maybe +250 on the +1.5 runline, and that is cherry picking a team with a dozen one run losses. Start looking at teams who dont lose too many games by one run when theyre a dog and it isnt even close.

So if you guys want to pull stats out of your ass at least know how to use them.

All these 19 paragraph explanations and all your research and supposed knowledge will just make you put a bullet in your head in the end when you realize you've wasted your time trying to learn when you don't have a clue.

[ApricotSinner32]

^ patty is only taking +1.5 on + money anyways guy

I don't suggest just taking any +1.5 dog runline at even money or better. More information is needed.

[wantitall4moi]

All these 19 paragraph explanations and all your research and supposed knowledge will just make you put a bullet in your head in the end when you realize you've wasted your time trying to learn when you don't have a clue.

LMAO thats why I why I made about 5 million in twelve years and will never have to do anything else ever again.

But then again if I am really clueless then that gives hope to all the other idiots out there. Maybe that is the secret, only the dummies win and all the geniuses are the guys losing everything they own, losing their families and killing themselves because they are so damn smart.

You sir just solve the great sportsbetting mystery.

[ApricotSinner32]

5 million in 12 years

[ZetaPsi808]

unreal 2-1 red sox.

need to get an out NOW.

[CanuckG]

LMAO thats why I why I made about 5 million in twelve years and will never have to do anything else ever again.

But then again if I am really clueless then that gives hope to all the other idiots out there. Maybe that is the secret, only the dummies win and all the geniuses are the guys losing everything they own, losing their families and killing themselves because they are so damn smart.

You sir just solve the great sportsbetting mystery.

[jeffdane]

the nats have not won a game at +200 or better.

they are +0.5 units as a dog

and they have lost 15 1 run games, as a dog.

[LockPickMaster]

Grab your Coxs, Hold on to your Sox

[rm18]

If they brought Laffey taffy in for ellsbury could of won

[CanuckG]

This could be a sweat if you have this now

3-1 Bosox

[Extra Innings]

Squares gonna square.

You were on the right side.

[pokernut9999]

Getting funny now

[CanuckG]

Mariners always finding a way to lose I love it

[Extra Innings]

You were on the right side.

It was a good play

[wantitall4moi]

Wel I could sit around on forums all day and make stupid videos or talk post pictures of plastic chicks for people to grade.

I just sit on my front porch and listen to the radio or pick some avocados off the trees down back, or maybe some oranges. Nothing too strenuous.

Although I have started going to a few storage auctions now and again if I dont have to fight traffic. So that is the extent of the gamble bug I need to fix these days.

People forget you could once actually make bets that would make money. That was back before most of you even thought you had a clue. Now you have maybe 3 or 4 books you can even bet with and none of them are fit to have cash in. So not only pissing into the wind but also doing it on an electric fence.

But to be fair I sold a house I had bought with gambling winning down in Newport Beach for almost 750K more than I was into it for, but IMO that counts since it was profit gained from winnings. But then again so is the money I have gained from the investments I made with those profits. So it could be more. But I think 5 mil is pretty close to what I cashed out from gambling alone. Not hard to do when you put 20 million or more through the windows every year.

But I dont talk about it too much. I never felt the need to prove anything, but a few smart guys found out who i was a few years ago at The RX and I think one of them is still around and I am sure they can attest that I dont have to make up stories about gambling, because the truth is more than adequate to qualify as at least semi successful.

[CanuckG]

Well sir congrats. We're just here to post winners.

[CanuckG]

bases juiced 0 outs

[wantitall4moi]

the nats have not won a game at +200 or better.

they are +0.5 units as a dog

and they have lost 15 1 run games, as a dog.

Depends on the odds you got I suppose. Like I say getting the best odds is half the battle. I know they won two in a row and one of them closed at least +200, and the other one was maybe +190 at close but opened over +200. But it was awhile ago so I dont know for sure. But they have had at least half a dozen games over +150. Not counting those two. That is easy enough to look up just on generic closers.

I could run the database and get all of the info but it doesnt matter since it is a non issue.

But I would bet money they are up more than half a unit as dogs. I would say closer to 5 units. Hell go over to Covers and count their wins and losses and you would see that just with random numbers and results.

[Ra77er]

Kinda feels like Doyle Brunson lecturing some internet pro's and then donking out to the same kids because the game has passed him by.

[rm18]

nevermind

[notsosharp]

Beckett 131 pitches if Seattle doesn't get it done they truely suck.

[CanuckG]

boston potentially getting out of a scare

[wantitall4moi]

Well sir congrats. We're just here to post winners.

Any idiot can post a bunch of picks, who really cares? This place has some spreadsheet that can do that for you. Besides peopel post plays and half the people root for them to lose and the other half dont really care.

I try and put up advice that I know works. And the more people disagree with me the more I know it works. Posting plays is a very subjective view, but teaching people the correct approach is a lot more valuable and a lot more enduring. But people do their own thing regardless, and most are usually buried before they smarten up and try something new.

[homosayswhat]

Jack Cust SUCKS!!

watch ......this clown is garbage

[homosayswhat]

hahaha...see.....

[rm18]

Beckett 131 pitches if Seattle doesn't get it done they truely suck.

Beckett didn't pitch in the 8th the gamecast was wrong I was wonderingnhow he was still in

[notsosharp]

lmao Seattle may be the worst.