[Justin7]

Wait. What?

Isn't this model tested against your "efficient" closer? So why are your early numbers different?

MonkeyFocker,

I really wish you'd read it before slamming it. The best measure of a model is: if your model suggests a bet on the opener, does the line movement agree?

If your model suggests betting an opener of -105 and it closes at -115, that is a 10-point victory. If that same game closed at +105 on that side, that is a 10-point failure. You look at openers and closers to analyze a model. If your model correctly predicts the direction of the line movement more than 60% of the time at whatever threshold you use, you are probably going to win.

[MonkeyF0cker]

See post #63.

Umm. What part about inefficient didn't you understand?

Your post assumes efficient closers. How can you have efficient closers if all of the profitable models are normalizing to an inefficient market? (Of course, they aren't going to because its not efficient.)

So, how does a market become efficient? Magic?

[Emily_Haines]

Emily,

Do you think NFL openers are unbeatable?

Probably, but not to the point where you can hit 55%+. Why mess around trying to beat the toughest game, when the college sports and smaller market stuff (arena, WNBA, props) are easier to beat?

I like using Sunday to prepare for the college football openers plus I save 300 not having to buy NFL Sunday ticket.

[Justin7]

Umm. What part about inefficient didn't you understand?

Your post assumes efficient closers. How can you have efficient closers if all of the profitable models are normalizing to an inefficient market? (Of course, they aren't going to because its not efficient.)

So, how does a market become efficient? Magic?

You normalize to the efficient closer. You bet the inefficient opener. The market, as always, becomes more efficient between opening and closing.

[MonkeyF0cker]

MonkeyFocker,

I really wish you'd read it before slamming it. The best measure of a model is: if your model suggests a bet on the opener, does the line movement agree?

If your model suggests betting an opener of -105 and it closes at -115, that is a 10-point victory. If that same game closed at +105 on that side, that is a 10-point failure. You look at openers and closers to analyze a model. If your model correctly predicts the direction of the line movement more than 60% of the time at whatever threshold you use, you are probably going to win.

Wow. There is absolutely no mathematical basis to that AT ALL.

I do love how you say "probably" though.

[MonkeyF0cker]

You normalize to the efficient closer. You bet the inefficient opener. The market, as always, becomes more efficient between opening and closing.

I'm not talking about a one game market. I'm talking about the general market of the sport.

[Extra Innings]

Most impressive thing thus far here is the fact that Justin has actually found a presumably willing? woman to have sex with (twice no less, 2 daughters). I don't know if he had a model to predict this occurrence but well done my man

It's called the cash model

[Justin7]

Wow. There is absolutely no mathematical basis to that AT ALL.

I do love how you say "probably" though.

No mathematical basis at all to what? that the closer is more efficient than the opener? Or the methodology of grading models?

[Extra Innings]

No mathematical basis at all to what? that the closer is more efficient than the opener? Or the methodology of grading models?

Justin...how much of that pseudoephedrine did you take tonight

[Justin7]

Justin...how much of that pseudoephedrine did you take tonight

None. Am I in withdrawal?

[MonkeyF0cker]

No mathematical basis at all to what? that the closer is more efficient than the opener? Or the methodology of grading models?

Umm. Arbitrary 60% line movement agreement maybe?

[Extra Innings]

None. Am I in withdrawal?

You're in the zone...stay strong.

[Justin7]

Umm. Arbitrary 60% line movement agreement maybe?

Experience. In the past, I have seen line movement agree at a 60% or higher clip on winning models.

Do you have a different number that you think is more accurate?

[MonkeyF0cker]

Experience. In the past, I have seen line movement agree at a 60% or higher clip on winning models.

Do you have a different number that you think is more accurate?

And what if the average line move is 2 cents?

Do I really have to explain this?

[MonkeyF0cker]

I do love how you turned my question about normalizing against an overall inefficient sports market into one of opener versus closer. Very lawyer-like avoidance.

[Justin7]

And what if the average line move is 2 cents?

Do I really have to explain this?

2 cents is a "positive" result on +/- line movement. You'll probably lose money if every play only sees a 2-cent agreement.

At risk of repeating myself, read the book. See what your average line movement is. If the movement is less than the vig (i.e. you get less than 5 cents of movement when betting into -105 lines), that is inadequate.

[Justin7]

I do love how you turned my question about normalizing against an overall inefficient sports market into one of opener versus closer. Very lawyer-like avoidance.

As I have stated, I assume that closers are efficient, and openers are not. Do you challenge that assumption?

[MonkeyF0cker]

As I have stated, I assume that closers are efficient, and openers are not. Do you challenge that assumption?

If it's an assumption, absolutely.

[MonkeyF0cker]

2 cents is a "positive" result on +/- line movement. You'll probably lose money if every play only sees a 2-cent agreement.

At risk of repeating myself, read the book. See what your average line movement is. If the movement is less than the vig (i.e. you get less than 5 cents of movement when betting into -105 lines), that is inadequate.

And subsequently, the only way of knowing that you have no edge any longer with your methodology is after repeated failure at market agreement. Sounds like a fast way to burn money.

[Justin7]

If it's an assumption, absolutely.

10 years ago, I thought the same thing.

You can test the accuracy of closers versus openers. Every sport I have studied has efficient closers relative to openers. Compare the average margin of victory to the spread, or the win percentage of the favorite relative to the moneyline.

Do you know of any sports where closers are less efficient than openers?

[Justin7]

And subsequently, the only way of knowing that you have no edge any longer with your methodology is after repeated failure at market agreement. Sounds like a fast way to burn money.

If you expect 70% market agreement, you'll quickly see when the market stops agreeing. A coin flipper can expect to see about 30% agreement, 30% market rejection, and 40% with no real market movement. The change in market movement tells you when your model is failing (which, once again, I wrote about).

If you ignore changes in market reaction, it is a fast way to burn money.

As much fun as it's been, I have to sleep. If you care, we can continue this tomorrow.

[MonkeyF0cker]

10 years ago, I thought the same thing.

You can test the accuracy of closers versus openers. Every sport I have studied has efficient closers relative to openers. Compare the average margin of victory to the spread, or the win percentage of the favorite relative to the moneyline.

Do you know of any sports where closers are less efficient than openers?

Yes.

[MonkeyF0cker]

If you expect 70% market agreement, you'll quickly see when the market stops agreeing. A coin flipper can expect to see about 30% agreement, 30% market rejection, and 40% with no real market movement. The change in market movement tells you when your model is failing (which, once again, I wrote about).

If you ignore changes in market reaction, it is a fast way to burn money.

As much fun as it's been, I have to sleep. If you care, we can continue this tomorrow.

Sounds like more arbitrary nonsense to me.

[ApricotSinner32]

My model says you guys all suck

[onetrickpony]

nerds

this shit belongs in the nerd sub forum

thanks

[onetrickpony]

my model says im hitting her at an alarming rate

[onetrickpony]

my overall ratio is looking good too

[brumbies]

MonkeyFocker, I really wish you'd read it before slamming it.

yeah sour grapes much? whats so hard about getting the book? you are only 36 points away from it.

it seems as if justin7 must have murdered your entire family, judging by the amount of animosity you guys have towards him.